Advanced Strategic Planning 2

Ed MorrisonEconomic Development Institute

December, 2007

Outline of the Course

• Overview

• Defining a Region

• Telling a Story

• Understanding Your Toolbox

• Finding Data

• Drawing Charts

• Developing a Basic Story Line

Forget Vision, Find Coherence

Economic development in a nutshell

4

Overview

Why telling stories makes a difference

5

Overview

Prosperous stories create a “buzz”

6

Overview

Negative stories become self-fulfilling

7

Overview

• Purpose: Why? What’s the purpose?

• Media markets

• Commuting Patterns

• Cluster Anchor Linkages

• Affinities: Mind Share

Setting the Stage: Defining Your Region

Defining a Region

Exercise: What’s the Bluegrass?

Defining a Region

The Lexington-Fayette, KY Metropolitan Statistical Area is the 109th largest Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in the United States. It was originally formed by the United States Census Bureau in 1950 and consisted solely of Fayette County until 1980 when surrounding counties saw increases in their population densities and the number of their residents employed within Lexington-Fayette, which led to them meeting Census criteria to be added to the MSA. MSA counties include Bourbon, Clark, Fayette, Jessamine, Scott, and Woodford.

The Lexington-Fayette, KY MSA is the primary MSA of the Lexington-Fayette-Frankfort-Richmond, KY Combined Statistical Area which includes the Micropolitan Statistical Areas of Frankfort, KY (Franklin and Anderson counties), Mount Sterling, KY (Montgomery, Bath, and Menifee counties), and Richmond, KY (Madison and Rockcastle counties). The Lexington-Fayette-Frankfort-Richmond, KY Combined Statistical Area has a July 1, 2005 Census Bureau estimated population of 635,642.

Defining a Region

• Analog: Quantitative: People, Businesses and Places

• Digital: Qualitative: Surveys, Interviews, Focus Groups

• Think about the structure of the story from Day 1

Using Data to Tell a Story

Telling a Story

Study what others are doing

Telling a Story

13

Santa FeTelling a Story

14

London, UK

Some Big Picture Themes

• Is our population growing: | Population

• Are we producing jobs? | Employment

• Are we generating income? | Income

This story, although helpful, only sets the stage

Telling a Story

Drawing a clear pictureTactic 1: Use benchmark communities to

measure progress

16

Mobile

Augusta Aiken

Charleston-N Charleston

Chattanooga

Savannah

Columbia

Lexington

Colorado Springs

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000

2000 per capita income

$22,677

$23,816

$24,458

$26,781

$27,289

$27,741

$28,597

$28,804

Telling a Story

Drawing a clear pictureTactic 2: Use growth rates in wage and

salaried employment

17

Augusta Aiken

Charleston-N Charleston

Columbia

Savannah

Chattanooga

Mobile

Lexington

Colorado Springs

0 0.1

CAGR wage and salaried employment, 1990-2000

0.6%

0.9%

1.3%

1.7%

1.9%

2.5%

2.6%

3.7%

Telling a Story

Drawing a clear pictureTactic 3: Use index to compare

employment growth

18

Telling a Story

19

Navy base closes

Charleston forms a regional alliance

Telling a Story

1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 20030

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Nominal PCI growth (1969=100)

United States

Oklahoma City, OK (MSA)

Oil Bust

Norrick Elected

MAPS passes

Forward OKC launched

Baseball stadiumopens

The story of Oklahoma City in 1 slide

Telling a Story

• Brainpower

• Education and training

• Research

• Innovation

• Entrepreneurship and business development networks

• Physical infrastructure

• Connectivity

• Attractions

Drawing a clear pictureTactic 4: Mapping Your Assets (on maps)

21

Telling a Story

Telling a Story

• Traded business (economic base) analysis | Cluster analysis

• Local business analysis: Retail capture and leakage

• Location quotients

• Shift share

• SWOT

• Social Network Analysis

• Regional Asset Mapping

Analytic Tools You Can Use

23

Your Tools

• Identification: Secondary data and location quotients

• Identification: Interviews and focus groups

Traded businesses and clusters

24

Your Tools

Tip: Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness: Competitiveness Data ($) http://www.isc.hbs.edu/

• Trade area potential

• Retail leakage

• Transformation to a traded cluster: tourism connection

Local businesses

25

Your Tools

Tip: Plugging the Leaks: http://www.pluggingtheleaks.org/

Cluster Maps from Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness

26http://www.isc.hbs.edu/

Your Tools

http://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/innovation/data.html

Unlocking Rural Competitiveness

Your Tools

Tip: Unlocking Rural Competitiveness

Location quotients measure concentration

28

• A measure of concentration or specialization: A simple ratio

• A location quotient is simply a ratio comparing the local percentage of employment in a sector to the national average percentage of employment in that sector.

• Location quotient > 1

Your region is more specialized than the nation as a whole

Suggests a regional advantage

Your Tools

29

Shift Share: Breaks down growth into components

Your Tools

Source: Georgia TechTip: Georgia Tech Course on Economic Development Analysis: http://cherry.iac.gatech.edu/6602/xschedule.htm

Shift Share: Breaks down growth into components

30

Source: Georgia TechTip: Georgia Tech Course on Economic Development Analysis: http://cherry.iac.gatech.edu/6602/xschedule.htm

Your Tools

SWOT: An Organizing Framework

Source: Angelou Economics

Your Tools

Your Tools

Your Tools

Exercise: SWOT to Story

Your Tools

Social network analysis helps you understand connections

35

Your Tools

Tip: The Tipping Point

Social Network Mapof the

Southwest Regional Leadership ForumUniversity of Evansville

March 17, 2006

Presented by the Indiana Humaniteis Council

Which region is stronger?Your Tools

Knowledge Person;

Hub

Boundary Spanner

Knowledge Person;

Hub; Influencer

Peripheral

Person

Information

Broker

Knowledge

Person

Successful communities will understand the power of networks

Your Tools

Peripheral

Boundary Spanner

Hub

Mapping your networksYour Tools

Tip: www.inspiration.com

Your Tools

Tip: Council on Competitiveness Guidebook available on http://edi-strategy.net

Telling a Story

Tip: Business Week: “Mapping the Crowd”, November, 15, 2007

Start at: http://www.econdata.net

Finding Data: Start here....

Finding Data

Finding Data: And here....

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd

Courtesy: Ed Morrison & Tim Chase

Finding Data

• Step 1: Define your message

• Step 2: Be clear on the comparison

• Step 3: Choose a chart type

Use Each Chart to Tell a Part of Your Story

Drawing Charts

• Be clear and concise about the message

• Focus on the aspect of the data you want to emphasize

• Put the message at the top of the graph

Defining the Message

Drawing Charts

North (13%)

South (35%)

East (27%)

West (25%)

North (39%)

South (6%)East (27%)

West (28%)

Company A Company B

West

East

South

North

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

13%

39%

35%

6%

27%

27%

25%

28%

Company A

Company B

What’s the message?Drawing Charts

• Component comparisons: (%)

• Item comparisons: (rank)

• Time series comparisons: (change over time)

• Frequency distribution comparisons (distributions)

• Correlation comparisons (relationships)

Types of Comparisons

Drawing Charts

Component Comparisons (%)

• We are interested in showing the size of a component relative to the whole

• Your message includes the words: share, percentage of total, accounted for X percent

• Use pie and stacked bar charts

North (13%)

South (35%)

East (27%)

West (25%)

North (39%)

South (6%)East (27%)

West (28%)

Company A Company B

Company A Company B0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

13%

35%

27%

25%

39%

6%

27%

28%

North

South

East

West

Drawing Charts

Item Comparisons

• We want to compare how things rank: Are they about the same? Is one more (or less) than another?

• Message words: larger than, smaller than, equal to

• Use horizontal bar chart

Augusta Aiken

Charleston-N Charleston

Columbia

Savannah

Chattanooga

Mobile

Lexington

Colorado Springs

0 0.1

CAGR wage and salaried employment, 1990-2000

0.6%

0.9%

1.3%

1.7%

1.9%

2.5%

2.6%

3.7%

Drawing Charts

Time Series

• We want to see how something changes over time

• Message words: increase, decrease, change, grow, decline

• Use charts: column or line

Drawing Charts

Correlation Comparisons

• Show a pattern between two variables

• Message: related to, increases with, changes with

• Use scatter plot

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

State per capita income

Percent of adults with 4 years of college or more

Drawing Charts

Exercise: Defining Your Messages Clearly

Drawing Charts

Drawing Charts What’s the message?

Drawing Charts What’s the message?

Drawing Charts What’s the message?

Drawing Charts What’s the message?

Drawing Charts What’s the message?

• We need to start with brains powered by 21st Century Skills.

• We convert our brainpower into wealth with innovation and entrepreneurship.

The Basic Story Line: A Template

A Basic Story Line

• We need to attract people by developing quality, connected places.

• We need to brand ourselves with compelling stories.

• We need collaboration to keep us aligned and focused.

The Basic Story Line: PART 2

A Basic Story Line

Source: Ed Morrison

A Framework for Strategic StoriesA Basic Story Line

HealthyBrainpower and

World Class Skills

Entrepreneur and

Innovation Networks

Insightful Stories and Effective

Branding

Infrastructure for Quality,Connected

Places

Civic Collaboration

Innovative Businesses

Healthy, Creative Places

Healthy, CreativePeople

Dynamic Clusters

Here is the simple story line...

Regions will prosper on the Second Curve with balanced strategies that...

1. Build world class brainpower

2. Translate brainpower into wealth through innovation and

entrepreneurship networks

3. Create quality, connected places where “hot spots” can develop

4. Create a buzz with a brand

5. Continuously strengthen habits of civic collaboration

A Basic Story Line

Chapters of the Story

A Basic Story Line

• High school graduation rates

• College attainment

• High school drop outs

• College continuation rates

• STEM metrics (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math)

Brainpower: Talent Development | Our People

A Basic Story Line

How well are we doing developing brainpower with 21st Century Skills?

• Research and technology base: Research $, SBIRs, patents

• New business starts

• 2d Stage entrepreneurs: (EE 9-99) -- Lowe Foundation coming 1Q 2008

• Cluster development

Innovation: Entrepreneurship: Clusters: Business Development

| Our Businesses

A Basic Story Line

How well are we converting brainpower into wealth through innovation and entrepreneurship?

• Broadband

• Commercial, industrial inventory

• Roads

• Water

• Other “quality of life” indicators

• Housing

Quality Connected Places: Physical Development | Our

Places

A Basic Story Line

How well are we developing a “sticky” place for people and business?

• Stories and testimonials

• Awareness research

Branding | Our Story

A Basic Story Line

How well are we telling our story to ourselves, our children, and outsiders?

A Basic Story Line

• Community forums | Connections, Attendance

• Civility | Public attitudes and behaviors

• Mapping Actors in the Story

• Social network mapping

Collaboration and Leadership: Skills and Attitudes | Our

Leadership

A Basic Story Line

How well are we aligning, linking and leveraging our resources through collaboration?

Converting analog to digital

Neil Reid, Ph.D., and Michael C. Carroll, Ph.D., "Structuring a Successful Greenhouse Cluster in Northwest Ohio", The IEDC Economic Development Journal, Fall, 2006

Converting analog to digitalA Basic Story Line

Fostering and Nurturing Entrepreneurship in Northeast Ohio, A report of NorTech's Entrepreneurship Task Force, 2003

Exercise: Developing a Story from a Mass

of Data