Post on 21-Jan-2018
ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE FLORIDA CITRUS INDUSTRY IN 2015-16
P R E S E N TAT I O N TO T H E F LO R I DA C I T R U S C O M M I S S I O NM AY 1 7 , 2 0 1 7
Christa D. Court, PhD | Assistant Scientist
Alan W. Hodges, PhD | Extension Scientist
Mohammad Rahmani, PhD | Economic Analyst
Thomas J. Spreen, PhD | Professor Emeritus FOOD AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT
Scope of the Florida Citrus Industry, 2015-16
Florida Commercial Citrus Production Areas
• Largest citrus producer in the U.S. 49% of total U.S. citrus production U.S. is 4th largest producer in the world
• 27 counties have citrus production 5 commercial citrus production areas
• 480,000+ acres of grove lands 435,000+ acres of bearing grove lands
• 32 packinghouses ship fresh fruit to global markets
• 19 processing facilities that process citrus juice and byproducts
Study Purpose• Estimate the economic contributions of
the citrus industry in Florida for 2015-16 season– Fruit production– Packinghouse operations– Citrus juice manufacturing
• Estimate impacts for five commercial citrus production areas– Northern– Western (peninsular)– Central– Indian River – Southern
• Compare results to previous studies – 2012-13 season– 2014-15 season
• Update estimates for the economic impacts of citrus greening disease (HLB)
Source: UF/IFAS
Data Sources and Methods• U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
– National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)• Citrus acreage, fruit production by type, grower prices
– Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)• World citrus production, consumption, and exports
• Florida Department of Agricultural and Consumer Services (FDACS)– Fruit shipments to packinghouses and processing
plants
• Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)– Juice shipments, wholesale and retail prices
(Nielson), byproduct prices (industry survey)
– Byproduct volumes
• IMPLAN regional input-output software and data– Captures the direct, indirect, and induced
multiplier effects of industry activities in all economic sectors
Source: UF/IFAS
Source: UF/IFAS
y = -20,628x + 763,555R² = 0.9398
0
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Acr
es
Be
arin
g (T
ho
usa
nd
s)
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Yie
ld (
bo
xes
pe
r ac
re)
Grapefruit Orange
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350
Pro
du
ctio
n U
tiliz
ed
(m
illio
n b
oxe
s)
Trends in Florida Citrus Acreage, Production, Yields, and Value, 2000-16
Declined by 42% Grapefruit declined by 39%Orange declined by 46%
Declined by 68%
Source: USDA-NASSNote: Data are for calendar years and 2016 data are preliminary
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Pro
du
ctio
n V
alu
e (
bill
ion
do
llars
)
Acres Bearing Yield
Production Utilized Production Value
Trends in World Citrus Production, Consumption, Exports, and Orange Juice Consumption, 2011-12 – 2015-16
Source: USDA-FAS
8.818.42
8.90 8.92 9.36
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Wo
rld
Exp
ort
s(t
ho
usa
nd
me
tric
to
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Co
un
try/
Re
gio
n E
xpo
rts
(th
ou
san
d m
etr
ic t
on
s)
World China South Africa Turkey United States Egypt
88.93 86.2989.91 90.14 88.49
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Wo
rld
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n(m
illio
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etr
ic t
on
s)
Co
un
try/
Re
gio
n C
on
sum
pti
on
(m
illio
n m
etr
ic t
on
s)
World China Brazil European Union United States Mexico
89.6386.69
90.84 90.89 89.21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Wo
rld
Pro
du
ctio
n(m
illio
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etr
ic t
on
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Co
un
try
/Re
gio
n P
rod
uct
ion
(mill
ion
me
tric
to
ns)
World China Brazil European Union United States Mexico
Production Consumption
Exports Orange Juice Consumption2,058 2,070
1,9592,055
1,892
0
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1500
2000
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1000
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Wo
rld
Ora
nge
Ju
ice
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n
(t
ho
usa
nd
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ns)
Co
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Re
gio
n O
ran
ge J
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on
sum
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(t
ho
usa
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ns)
World European Union United States Japan China Canada
10.1
84.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Fresh Processed
Uti
liza
tio
n (
mill
ion
bo
xes)
Tangerines
Tangelos
Red seedlessgrapefruitWhite seedlessgrapefruitValenciaorangeNon-Valenciaoranges
Florida Citrus Production Volumes and Grower Values for Fresh or Processed Utilization, 2015-16
• Total volume of citrus fruit production 94.2 million boxes• 81.6 million boxes of oranges• 10.8 million boxes of grapefruit • 1.8 million boxes of specialty citrus
(tangelos and tangerines)
• Fresh market: 11 percent
• Processing: 89 percent
• Total value of citrus fruit production $825 million• Oranges: $682 million• Grapefruit: $108 million • Specialty citrus: $35 million
• Fresh market: $170 million
• Processing: $656 million
170
656
0
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500
600
700
Fresh Processed
Va
lue
(m
illio
n d
olla
rs)
Tangerines
Tangelos
Red seedlessgrapefruit
White seedlessgrapefruit
Valenciaorange
Non-Valenciaoranges
Florida Fresh Citrus Shipment Values and Packinghouse Margins, 2015-16
The wholesale margin on fresh packed fruit is the difference between the value of shipped fruit and the value paid to growers.
Volume of certified fresh shipments: 17,458 thousand 4/5 bushel cartons
Non-Valencia oranges: 3,153 Valencia oranges: 2,862 White seedless grapefruit: 980 Red seedless grapefruit: 8,091 Tangelos: 414 Tangerines: 1,959
53 40
19
128
6
48
0
20
40
60
80
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120
140
Non-Valenciaoranges
Valenciaorange
Whiteseedless
grapefruit
Redseedless
grapefruit
Tangelos Tangerines
Oranges fill Grapefruit fill Specialty Citrus
Va
lue
(m
illio
n d
olla
rs)
Value paid to growers
Packinghouse margin
Wholesale Value of Florida Citrus Juice, 2015-16
• Total volume: 810 million gallons Orange juice: 771 million gallons Grapefruit juice: 38 million gallons
• Total producer value: $2.8 billion Orange juice: $2.7 billion Grapefruit juice: $115 million
• Total in-state sales: $157 million Frozen concentrate: $42 million Single strength: $116 million
• Total out-of-state sales: $2.6 billion Frozen concentrate: $692 million Single strength: $1.9 billion
• 94% of the value of citrus juice sales is shipped out-of-state
733
2,057
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Frozen Concentrate Single Strength
Val
ue
(mill
ion
do
llars
) Out-of-state In-state
697
36
1,978
79
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
Orange Grapefruit Orange Grapefruit
Frozen Concentrate fill Single Strength
Va
lue
(m
illio
n d
olla
rs) Packaged Bulk
Volume and Value of Processed Citrus Byproducts, 2015-16
Sources: www.svfeeds.com; www.gardeningknowhow.com; www.primafleurbotanicals.blogspot.com
Economic Contributions of Florida Citrus Industry Activities, 2015-16
15,563
27,872
1,987
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Growers Processors Packinghouses
Em
plo
yme
nt
(fu
lltim
e a
nd
pa
rt-t
ime
job
s)
Direct Indirect Induced
2,559
4,230
8,632
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Labor Income Value Added Industry Output
(mill
ion
do
llars
)
Growers Processors Packinghouses
Total contributions by citrus industry sector
Total employment contributions by type and citrus sector
State and local tax contributions:
$271 million
Tax Contributions of Florida Citrus Activities, 2015-16
Tax on Production and Imports:
Sales Tax46%Tax on
Production and Imports:
Property Tax36%
Personal Tax: NonTaxes
(Fines- Fees)5%
Tax on Production and Imports: Other Taxes
4%
Corporate Profits Tax
4%Other
5%
Federal tax contributions:
$547 million
Personal Tax: Income Tax
34%
Social Ins Tax-Employer
Contribution23%
Social Ins Tax-Employee
Contribution21%
Corporate Profits Tax
16%
Tax on Production and Imports: Excise
Taxes4%
Other2%
Total Employment Contributions by Industry (Jobs), 2015-16
Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting,
8065, 18%
Manufacturing, 6425, 14%
Health & social services, 4088, 9%
Retail trade, 3861, 8%
Government & non-NAICs, 3746, 8%
Accommodation & food services, 2439,
5%
Professional, scientific & technical
services, 2314, 5%
Wholesale trade, 2119, 5%
Other services, 2110, 5%
Construction, 1704, 4%
Other, 8552, 19%
Florida Citrus Production by County, 2015-16
Source: FDACS
• Top five producing counties1. Hendry2. DeSoto3. Polk4. Highlands5. Hardee
• County and area level estimates of economic contributions were allocated based on the proportional distribution of production volume
Citrus production by county, 2015-16
Economic Contributions of the Florida Citrus Industry by Production Area, 2015-16
• Central, share of 2015 economy Employment contributions: 2.7 percent Value added contributions: 3.5 percent
• Southern, share of 2015 economy Employment contributions: 2.1 percent Value added contributions: 2.7 percent
• Western (peninsular), share of 2015 economy Employment contributions: 0.9 percent Value added contributions: 1.0 percent
Direct Employment and Value Added Contributions as a Share of 2015 Employment and Value Added by County
Employment Shares
6.01% - 13.00%
4.01% - 6.00%
1.01% - 4.00%
0.51% - 1.00%
0.01% - 0.50%
Value Added Shares
10.01% - 25.00%
4.01% - 10.00%
2.01% - 4.00%
0.51% - 2.00%
0.001% - 0.50%
Comparisons with Past Studies
29,448
19,942
15,563
34,037
27,877 27,872
2,960 2,149 1,987
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2012-13 2014-15 2015-16
Emp
loym
en
t (F
ull
tim
e a
nd
Par
t-ti
me
Jo
bs)
Growers Processors Packinghouses
4,007
2,7132,118
8,043
6,303 6,206
465 334 3080
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2012-13 2014-15 2015-16
Ind
ust
ry O
utp
ut
(Mil
lio
n D
oll
ars,
20
16
)
Growers Processors Packinghouses
Declines in total employment contributions by sector: Growers: 47% Processors: 18% Packinghouses: 33%
Declines in total output contributions by sector: Growers: 47% Processors: 23% Packinghouses: 34%
Overall employment, labor income, value added, and industry output contributions have all decreased by 31 percent in constant dollar terms between 2012-13 and 2015-16 and
by 8-9 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16.
Economic Impacts of Citrus Greening (HLB)
Cumulative total losses attributable to HLB from 2006-07 – 2015-16 were estimated at: $4.643 billion in industry output (annual average of $464 million) $2.768 billion in value added (annual average of $277 million) $1.760 billion in labor income (annual average of $176 million) 34,124 job-years (annual average of 3,412 ongoing full- and part-time jobs)
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Tota
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Without HLB With HLB
Economic Impacts of Citrus Greening (HLB)
Cumulative total losses attributable to HLB from 2012-13 – 2015-16 were estimated at: $4.393 billion in industry output (annual average of $1.098 billion) $2.631 billion in value added (annual average of $658 million) $1.673 billion in labor income (annual average of $418 million) 31,778 job-years (annual average of 7,945 ongoing full- and part-time jobs)
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Without HLB With HLB
Corresponding Author Contact Information:
Christa D. Court
ccourt@ufl.edu
(352) 294-7675
Alan W. Hodges
awhodges@ufl.edu
(352) 294-7674