Economic and Housing Opportunities (ECHO) Assessment

April 6, 2011

Association of Bay Area Governments

Introduction

Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

The Grand Boulevard Initiative is a collaboration of stakeholders united to achieve a shared vision for El Camino Real.

The Grand Boulevard Initiative

The Grand Boulevard Vision

State Rte 82 43 miles, Daly City to

Diridon Station in San Jose

Only major north-south arterial

Paralleled by BART and Caltrain lines

Most productive VTA and SamTrans bus service

The El Camino Real Corridor Opportunity

Realizing the Vision

“Coalition of the willing” Multiple investors

Federal, state and local governments Transportation agencies (SamTrans, VTA, C/CAG,

MTC) Business and development community 19 cities in 2 counties

14 cities, SM County and 7 agencies have adopted the Grand Boulevard Guiding Principles

Economic and Housing Opportunities (ECHO) Assessment

Purpose of the Assignment:

Making the Case for Transformation of the Corridor into the Grand Boulevard

Our Analysis:

1.Estimates of Potential Growth on the Corridor

2.Profile of Transformational Projects

3.Measure the Fiscal and Other Benefits of Transformation

4.Visualize and Study the Physical Implications of Transformation 

Findings

Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

Corridor Growth Scenarios 2010-2035 Estimate Magnitude of Potential Change

Growth Model

Greenbelt Alliance “Grow Smart Bay Area”

ABAG FOCUS PDAs

VTA - GBI Baseline

VTA - GBI Moderate

VTA - GBI Enhanced

Geography of Study Parcels on El Camino Real “Smart Spot” and PDAs

13 city-sponsored PDAs on El Camino Real

TAZs within 1/4 and 1/3 mile buffers of corridor

TAZs within 1/4 and 1/3 mile buffers of corridor

TAZs within 1/4 and 1/3 mile buffers of corridor

Methodology/ Assumptions

Uses ABAG 2009 projections for region. Incorporates PDA assumptions.

Allocates future regional growth on the rest of Corridor through infill of under-utilized land based on density assumptions.

Uses ABAG 2009 projections for region.

Focused growth in locally identified infill opportunities in existing areas near transit

Travel demand model using ABAG 2007 projections for TAZs

Assumes existing land use policies and patterns in allocating densities.

Travel demand model using ABAG 2007 projections for TAZs

Reallocation of growth into the Corridor, and densities increased near transit (bus and rail) to 20 – 55 DU/acre

Travel demand model using ABAG 2007 projections for Counties.

Reallocates growth into the Corridor, and densities increased near transit to 40-75 du/acre

Summary of Growth Scenarios: Projected New Households and Jobs in 2035

98,849

45,071 39,147 57,355

89,270

240,264

107,135

138,543

190,395

246,231

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Greenbelt Alliance FOCUS PDAs GBI Baseline GBI Moderate GBI Enhanced

Households Jobs

These projections are pegged to outdated ABAG forecasts of regional growth

The Corridor has Capacity to Accommodate Future Growth

Land capacity > amount of land required for infill Can be achieved at a range of densities

25-35 DU/AC – 3-4 stories, stacked attached townhomes, tuck-under parking

70-85 DU/AC – 6-8 stories, flats over structured parking/ground floor retail

20-25 DU/AC – 2+ stories, attached townhomes, underground parking

Fiscal Benefits of Infill Development ~ $330 million to $752 million in local tax revenues

Conversion of Low-Performing Retail Sites to Higher Intensity Uses Can be Generate More Revenues

Infrastructure and Service Costs

Economies of scale for some departments – Public Works, Engineering, etc.

Requires further analysis needed at the municipal level

Marginal vs. average costs

Smart growth can lower infrastructure costs

O&M Costs Vary

Source: Calthorpe Associates; Strategic Economics

Other Benefits of Transformation

Revitalization and value enhancement Time and cost savings for households and

employees More stable communities Provide a variety of housing types Access to skilled labor force

• 4 transformed El Camino Real settings depicted with “Grand Boulevard” streetscapes

• Range of types shown are in accordance with local zoning & guidelines

• 2-3 story townhomes at ½ acre South San Francisco location

• 3-4 story stacked flats at ½ acre San Mateo location

• 4-5 story stacked flats with some ground floor retail at assembled 1+ acre Sunnyvale location

• 4-8 story stacked flats in multiple parcels at Downtown Redwood City location

Physical Implications

South SF

Photo Credit: Google

SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT

San MateoSIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT

Photo Credit: Google

Sunnyvale

Photo Credit: Google

SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT

Redwood CitySIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT

Photo Credit: City of Redwood City

Policy Implications

Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

Visual Character Must Change To Unlock Potential of the Grand Boulevard

Transition from linear strip arterial to a pattern of centers and segments

Development projects that capture, maintain, and add value

Need to create an attractive environment for development

Implementation Issues

Public and private stakeholders must work together to effect change

ECHO Phase II Work: Implementation

TIGER II Grant to fund implementation study In-depth look at major issues in 4 cities:

Removing barriers Infrastructure needs assessment Financing strategies at local and regional level

Dena Belzer, PresidentStrategic Economics

dbelzer@strategiceconomics.com

Questions?