Post on 16-Jan-2015
description
What is Vision?
What is Vision?
The Evolving American Vision
The Emerging American Vision
People Turning 65 AnnuallyPeople Turning 65 Annually19961996--20252025
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Y e a r
0
50 0
1 ,00 0
1 ,50 0
2 ,00 0
Thou
sand
sPe
ople
Tur
ning
65
in Y
ear
Growth in Households without KidsGrowth in Households without Kids
Household TypeHousehold Type ShareShareWith ChildrenWith Children 12%12%Without ChildrenWithout Children 88%88%SingleSingle--PersonPerson 34%34%
SourceSource: Adapted and extrapolated by Chris Nelson from Martha Farnswort: Adapted and extrapolated by Chris Nelson from Martha Farnsworth h Riche, Riche, How Changes in the Nation's Age and Household Structure Will How Changes in the Nation's Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st CenturyReshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD (2003)., HUD (2003).
Unemployment in Baton Rouge
Source: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
9.6 %8.1 %
Aug 2009
Approaching labor shortages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
(in m
illion
s)
Annual change in US working age populationAverage annual job creation since WWII
Source: TIP Strategies; US Bureau Labor Statistics; US Census Bureau
A Digital Economy
• In the Future, digital access will be synonymous with achievement
Oil prices will become increasingly volatile
The future will not be like the past, nor the present
Demographic Shifts
• Growth concentrated in 55+ ages and 15-34 – Different housing demand
• These shifts will result in more multi family and mixed use growth.
Many Communities will compete to be great places to live & work
Open Spaces and Parks
Trends
Strong forces will put a premium on:1. Energy efficient, sustainable communities2. Places Attractive to Workforce3. Effective Transportation4. Great Livability5. More Options for Travel, Housing
Shopping, and Work
Zoning Source:
City of Baton Rouge –Parish of East Baton RougeGeographic Information Systems
Buildable Lands Source:
City of Baton Rouge –Parish of East Baton RougeGeographic Information Systems
Source:FEMA (Federal
Emergency Management Agency)
Source:USGS
(US Geological Survey)
Buildout with no EnvironmentalConstraints
Households Increase = 71,853Employment Increase = 319,452
Buildout with Floodplains &Wetlands Constrained
Households Increase = 43,888Employment Increase = 107,386
Economic trends and forecasts
Income in Baton Rouge
Source: Claritas Inc.
•East Baton Rouge households are wealthier than the State, though slightly less prosperous than the entire Baton Rouge MSA.
Income by Race
Source: Claritas Inc.
Education by Race
Source: U.S. American Community Survey 2008
Historic Employment Growth: Pre-2000
Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission
Historic employment growth 2001- 2008
Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Arts and entertain
Manufacturing
Employment forecast 2016 (regional)
Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission
Employment share / region
• 63-65% region’s employment is in East Baton Rouge Parish
• The Parish accounts for half the new jobs in the region
2001 2008Louisiana 1,864,538 1,885,531 20,993Regional Labor Market 377,958 417,973 40,015
Percent of State 20% 22%East Baton Rouge 245,176 264,262 19,086
Percent of Region 65% 63%
Number of Jobs Growth 01-08
Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission
Crime Rate
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
1st Qtr
United StatesDenverEast Baton RougeEBR/BR CombinedFort WorthPortlandHoustonNew OrleansAustinBaton RougeOaklandAtlanta
Population Forecast (2030)
Source: State of Louisiana Population Projections, Medium Forecast
•The population of East Baton Rouge Parish is projected to decline by 0.14% annually between 2010 and 2030.
•The population of the Baton Rouge MSA is projected to grow at nearly 1% per year over the same time period.
Historic population growth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
•East Baton Rouge Parish and Louisiana grew more slowly than the U.S., even before Katrina.
•The state experienced a population decline of 6% (250,000 people) in the year following Katrina.
•The Baton Rouge area, on the other hand, grew by nearly 5% (19,000 people) in the year following Katrina.
Cities that have grown since 2000
2000 2008 Change
Austin 656,562 746,835 14%
Boise 185,787 203,818 10%
Oklahoma City 506,132 544,157 8%
Denver 554,636 584,563 5%
Source: US Census Bureau; 2006-08 ACS estimates
Cities that have declined2000 2008 Change
Detroit 951,270 808,398 -15%
Cincinnati 331,285 299,577 -10%
Buffalo 292,648 259,143 -11%
Kansas City 441,545 435,825 -1%
Des Moines 198,682 197,912 0%
Source: US Census Bureau; 2006-08 ACS estimates
Traditional Planning Approach
• Decide – through analysis and research• Educate – the public about the solution• Announce – the plan• Defend – the plan
Traditional Planning Approach
• D• E• A• D
Improved Process
VALUES (What do people want?)
VISION (How will our City provide it?)
STRATEGY (How do we implement?)
PLAN
FUND
BUILD
Community Workshops
1
3
2
Two Scales – Parish and Neighborhood
NeighborhoodNeighborhoodParishParish
Workshop Game Pieces or “Chips”
Each table’s plan is analyzed…
….and all notes and comments are recorded
What happens after the workshop?
GIS Analysis
Each map was photographed, digitized, and entered into GIS
Downtown
Refineries
ZooAirport
Peoria
Skelly Drive
I-244
University of Tulsa
All Chips PlacedAll Chips Placed
DowntownUrbanMain StreetTransit DevelopmentVillageBusiness ParkCommercial CenterStrip CenterLight IndustrialUrban NeighborhoodSmall Lot SubdivisionResidential SubdivisionLarge Lot SubdivisionEastland Mall
Area
41st and Memorial
Scenario Choices
Broad Outreach
Scenario Options
A B
C D
Scenarios are Crash Test Dummies
Scenario CShown with the transportation network and existing surrounding plans
Scenario C
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
SF Det SF Att MF SF Det SF Att MF
Year 2000 Vision 2030
Owner Renter Year 2000
43%
57%
Modeling the Scenarios
Transportation AnalysisRoadway Impact
Ridership
Market ConstraintsDevelopment ProgramCommercial Demand
Housing Needs
Land Use ScenarioTipping Point Development
Vision 2030
52%
48%
Sustainability Urban Design
Prototype Buildings
Prototype Buildings
Original StandardsPrototypes
ApartmentSingle Family Home 5-8K LotSingle Family Home 8-15K Lot
Business ParkMid-Rise Business ParkRetail MallStrip CommercialHeavy IndustrialLight Industrial
New StandardsPrototypes
Cottage Home Townhome Live / Work Neighborhood Grocery (1 Story)Neighborhood Retail (1 Story)Mixed Use Apartments & Retail (2 Story)Mixed Use Retail & Office (2 Story)Mixed Use Retail & Office (3 Story)Mixed Use Residential & Retail (4 Story)High Density Condo or Apartments (5 Story)Office Retail (3 Story)Office Retail (5 Story)Office Retail (10 Story)
Financial Analysis and Modeling
Vetting the PrototypesTesting ideas in real world situations
Site size:360,000 Square Feet
Big-Box Retail Rehabilitation
How the Scenarios Compare
Daily Transit Ridership
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Scenario
A
Scenario
B
Scenario
C
Scenario
D
Housing Match (to income and preference)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
8-Story MU Retail/Res.
3-Story MU Retail/Res.
8-Story Res.
3-Story Res.
2-Story Townhome
2-Story Single Family
Large Lot SFR
Scenario B (Units) SV Proportional Profile (Units)
Balanced Housing Index
Score
80
Economy
$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
Trend Workshop Scenario C Scenario D Scenario T
Additional City Sales Tax Revenue
Scenario has the best sales tax performance of all
Scorecard
Comprehensive Plan Design
Four Components
• Vision
• Policy Plan
• Implementation Plan
• Monitoring System
6666
1st Component1st Component The VisionThe Vision
Capturing the City -Parish’s dreams:
• Core Values derived from broad-based public input
• Key Initiatives to realize the Vision
• Vision Illustration based on a palette of building blocks or development patterns
6767
2nd Component2nd Component The Policy DocumentThe Policy Document
• Eleven Elements linked that establish the policy foundation for achieving the Vision:
– Future Land Use – Transportation Element – Economy – Infrastructure and Capital Improvements Plan – Conservation and Environmental Resources – Recreation and Open Space – Housing – Public Services and Facilities/Buildings– Urban Design, Development, and Redevelopment – Health and Human Services – Natural Hazards
• Updated on 5 to 10 year cycle
6868
Land Use Element
• Establishes basis for zoning capacity to achieve growth targets
• Balances and integrates land uses with transportation systems to enable sustainable growth
• Institutes a framework for ongoing, small area planning to refine and implement the Vision
6969
Urban Design Element
• Establishes urban design policies tied to Vision building blocks
– Encourages architecture that responds to the surrounding community in context and scale
7070
Housing Element
Recognizes EBR’s urban future
– Encourages new types of ownership opportunities for non-traditional home buyers
– Encourages housing supply to meet needs across the income spectrum for future generations
– Creates housing conditions to attract middle income families to the Southern Sector
7171
Economic Element
7272
Establishes policies that advance economic goals– Fosters expansion and retention of
business and industry
– Informs land use element to ensure it provides the right zoning for the right development in the right places
A strong Parks, Open Space and Environmental element
Transportation Element
• Establishes fundamental linkage land use and transportation
• Establishes Context Sensitive Design (CSD) standards for streets
• Identifies key projects
7474
Land Use & Transportation Land Use & Transportation ConnectionConnection
Land Use & Transportation Land Use & Transportation ConnectionConnection
Land Use & Transportation Land Use & Transportation ConnectionConnection
Matching Street Design to Land Use
One size does not fit all Streets should respond to the land uses around them
Transit Options
Current Usage of Transit
33rdrd ComponentComponentThe Implementation PlanThe Implementation Plan
Implementation Plans
Upcoming Events
• 2010• January 26, 27 (kick-off Event)• March 2-4th (Parish Wide workshops)• April 6th-8th (Neighborhood workshops)• May 18th-20th• Summarize workshop results• June 22nd-24th• Presentation of scenarios and initial strategic issues
www.futurebr.com