Resilience Against EarthquakesResilience Against EarthquakesSome Practical SuggestionsSome Practical Suggestionsfor Planners and Managersfor Planners and Managers

Resilience Against EarthquakesResilience Against EarthquakesSome Practical SuggestionsSome Practical Suggestionsfor Planners and Managersfor Planners and Managers

David AlexanderDavid AlexanderGlobal Risk Forum Global Risk Forum -- Davos (CH)Davos (CH)

What is resilience [resiliency]?What is resilience [resiliency]?What is resilience [resiliency]?What is resilience [resiliency]?

•• a combination of resistance anda combination of resistance andadaptationadaptation (coping, capacity, capability)(coping, capacity, capability)

•• a combination of resistance anda combination of resistance andadaptationadaptation (coping, capacity, capability)(coping, capacity, capability)

•• ability to maintain ability to maintain livelihoodslivelihoods and and tenortenorof lifeof life in the face of disaster shocksin the face of disaster shocks

•• ability to maintain ability to maintain livelihoodslivelihoods and and tenortenorof lifeof life in the face of disaster shocksin the face of disaster shocks

•• local autonomy and local autonomy and selfself--sufficiencysufficiency..•• local autonomy and local autonomy and selfself--sufficiencysufficiency..

The ingredientsof resilienceThe ingredientsof resilience

Redund

ancy

Redund

ancy

Redund

ancy

Redund

ancy

AttitudeAttitudeAttitudeAttitudeAdaptabilityAdaptabilityAdaptabilityAdaptability AttitudeAttitudeAttitudeAttitude

Participation

Participation

Participation

Participation

AdaptabilityAdaptabilityAdaptabilityAdaptability

...and...andcommunicationcommunication

...and...andcommunicationcommunication

Wisdom:Wisdom: abilityability toto take take decisionsdecisionson the on the basisbasis ofof principlesprinciples,,experienceexperience and and knowledgeknowledge

Knowledge:Knowledge: understanding of howunderstanding of howthings function (or should function)things function (or should function)

Source: World Disasters Report 2005

things function (or should function)things function (or should function)

Information:Information: description ofdescription ofphysical and social situationsphysical and social situations

Data:Data: basic facts and statisticsbasic facts and statistics

COMMUNICATIONCOMMUNICATION

DRRDRR

KnowledgeKnowledge of of communitycommunityvulerabilityvulerability

KnowledgeKnowledgeof hazardsof hazardsandand their their impactsimpacts

DRRDRR

KnowledgeKnowledgeof copingof coping

capacitycapacity andandresilienceresilience

DisasterDisasterRiskRisk

ReductionReduction

OrganisationOrganisationOrganisationOrganisation ResourcesResourcesResourcesResources

SelfSelf--organisationorganisationSelfSelf--organisationorganisation

VolunteerismVolunteerismVolunteerismVolunteerism

Community disaster planningCommunity disaster planningCommunity disaster planningCommunity disaster planning

CommunityCommunityresourcesresourcesCommunityCommunityresourcesresources

DonationsDonationsDonationsDonations

OrganisationOrganisationOrganisationOrganisation ResourcesResourcesResourcesResources

ImposedImposedorganisationorganisationImposedImposedorganisationorganisation

Laws, protocols, directivesLaws, protocols, directivesLaws, protocols, directivesLaws, protocols, directives

Standards, norms, guidelinesStandards, norms, guidelinesStandards, norms, guidelinesStandards, norms, guidelines

GovernmentalGovernmentalresourcesresources

GovernmentalGovernmentalresourcesresources

International resourcesInternational resourcesInternational resourcesInternational resources

Organisationneed not beexpensive andthe cost of

Organisationneed not beexpensive andthe cost ofthe cost ofcommunicationis continuallyfalling...

the cost ofcommunicationis continuallyfalling...

Vehicles are an important source ofVehicles are an important source ofpeople's vulnerability to earthquakes, people's vulnerability to earthquakes, but...but...

Vehicles are an important source ofVehicles are an important source ofpeople's vulnerability to earthquakes, people's vulnerability to earthquakes, but...but...

VernacularVernacularhousing:housing:the mainthe mainsourcesource

VernacularVernacularhousing:housing:the mainthe mainsourcesourcethe mainthe mainsourcesourceof riskof risk

the mainthe mainsourcesourceof riskof risk

This is where This is where we need resilience...we need resilience...

A simpleA simplemethodologymethodologycould determinecould determinewhich part of awhich part of ahouse is house is leastleastliable to damageliable to damage

A simpleA simplemethodologymethodologycould determinecould determinewhich part of awhich part of ahouse is house is leastleastliable to damageliable to damageliable to damageliable to damagein an earthquake in an earthquake and whatand whatpatterns of patterns of damagedamagemight occur.might occur.

liable to damageliable to damagein an earthquake in an earthquake and whatand whatpatterns of patterns of damagedamagemight occur.might occur.

Can we deviseCan we devisea strategy to enhance a strategy to enhance

selfself--protective behaviour?protective behaviour?

Can we deviseCan we devisea strategy to enhance a strategy to enhance

selfself--protective behaviour?protective behaviour?

A scale for damage and personal risk levelA scale for damage and personal risk level

DamageDamage levellevel: : [1] [1] minimum minimum damagedamagetoto wallswalls, , fitmentsfitments and and furniturefurniture..

Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : prudentprudentbehaviourbehaviour willwill minimise minimise risksrisks..

DamageDamage levellevel: : [1] [1] minimum minimum damagedamagetoto wallswalls, , fitmentsfitments and and furniturefurniture..

Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : prudentprudentbehaviourbehaviour willwill minimise minimise risksrisks..

A scale for damage and personal risk levelA scale for damage and personal risk level

DamageDamage levellevel: : [2][2] significant damageto structures, cladding and fitments.

Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : significantrisk of injury but not of death..

DamageDamage levellevel: : [2][2] significant damageto structures, cladding and fitments.

Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : significantrisk of injury but not of death..

A scale for damage and personal risk levelA scale for damage and personal risk level

DamageDamage levellevel: : [3][3] general damage andcollapse of architectural elements.

Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : significant risk ofinjury but relatively low risk of death.

DamageDamage levellevel: : [3][3] general damage andcollapse of architectural elements.

Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : significant risk ofinjury but relatively low risk of death.

A scale for damage and personal risk levelA scale for damage and personal risk level

DamageDamage levellevel: : [4][4] serious damageor partial collapse of building.

Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : strong risk ofinjury and significant risk of death.

DamageDamage levellevel: : [4][4] serious damageor partial collapse of building.

Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : strong risk ofinjury and significant risk of death.

A scale for damage and personal risk levelA scale for damage and personal risk level

DamageDamage levellevel: : [5][5] collapse ofmore than 50% of the structure.

Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : limited and mainlyunpredictable probability of survival.

DamageDamage levellevel: : [5][5] collapse ofmore than 50% of the structure.

Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : limited and mainlyunpredictable probability of survival.

Poor buildingPoor buildingqualityquality

(low seismic(low seismicresistance)resistance)

Poor buildingPoor buildingqualityquality

(low seismic(low seismicresistance)resistance)

ProximityProximityto epicentreto epicentreand faultand faultrupturerupture

ProximityProximityto epicentreto epicentreand faultand faultrupturerupture

QQQQ EEEE

ConcentrationConcentrationof casualtiesof casualtiesConcentrationConcentrationof casualtiesof casualties

DeathsDeaths

InjuriesInjuries

QQ EE

TT SS

DeathsDeathsDeathsDeaths

InjuriesInjuriesInjuriesInjuries

QQQQ EEEE

TTTT SSSSTopographicTopographicamplificationamplificationTopographicTopographicamplificationamplification

SedimentarySedimentaryamplificationamplificationSedimentarySedimentaryamplificationamplificationTTTT SSSS

of casualtiesof casualties

CCof casualtiesof casualties

CC

C = C = f f { E,Q,S,T }{ E,Q,S,T }C = C = f f { E,Q,S,T }{ E,Q,S,T }

TT SSTTTT SSSS

Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:

•• site factorssite factors•• site factorssite factors

Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:

•• building type and materialsbuilding type and materials•• building type and materialsbuilding type and materials

[Masonry] [Reinforced concrete][Masonry] [Reinforced concrete][Masonry] [Reinforced concrete][Masonry] [Reinforced concrete]

•• plan and elevation of buildingplan and elevation of building•• plan and elevation of buildingplan and elevation of building

Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:

Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:

•• urban form factorsurban form factors•• urban form factorsurban form factors

[battering[battering[battering[battering[battering[batteringbybyadjacentadjacentbuildings]buildings]

[battering[batteringbybyadjacentadjacentbuildings]buildings]

Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:

•• mixed construction?mixed construction?•• mixed construction?mixed construction?

[Stone and[Stone andconcreteconcreteblock]block]

[Stone and[Stone andconcreteconcreteblock]block]

Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:

•• state of maintenancestate of maintenance•• state of maintenancestate of maintenance

Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:

•• occupancy factorsoccupancy factors•• occupancy factorsoccupancy factors

One needs to investigate the One needs to investigate the relativerelativeimportanceimportance of these factors inof these factors in

different situationsdifferent situations

One needs to investigate the One needs to investigate the relativerelativeimportanceimportance of these factors inof these factors in

different situationsdifferent situations

sitesitefactorsfactors

urban formurban formfactorsfactors

building typebuilding typeand materialsand materials

plan andplan andelevationelevationof buildingof building

mixedmixedconstruction?construction?

Mid-floor damage to multi-occupancy bldg:Mid-floor damage to multi-occupancy bldg:

Intertia effectIntertia effectIntertia effectIntertia effect

Interaction = damageInteraction = damageInteraction = damageInteraction = damage

Basal accelerationBasal accelerationBasal accelerationBasal acceleration

Interaction = damageInteraction = damageInteraction = damageInteraction = damage

Lack of stiffness in frameLack of stiffness in frameLack of stiffness in frameLack of stiffness in frame

For example...For example... what is the typicalwhat is the typicalpattern of seismic failurepattern of seismic failure of Iranianof Iranianvernacular housing of any given type?vernacular housing of any given type?

For example...For example... what is the typicalwhat is the typicalpattern of seismic failurepattern of seismic failure of Iranianof Iranianvernacular housing of any given type?vernacular housing of any given type?

•• basal accelerationbasal acceleration•• inertial displacementinertial displacement•• spalling of façadespalling of façade•• torsiontorsion

•• basal accelerationbasal acceleration•• inertial displacementinertial displacement•• spalling of façadespalling of façade•• torsiontorsion

Some possible modes of failureSome possible modes of failureSome possible modes of failureSome possible modes of failure

•• torsiontorsion•• ejection ofejection ofinfill masonryinfill masonry

•• deformation ofdeformation ofstructural nodesstructural nodes

•• detachment ofdetachment ofinternal stairwaysinternal stairways

•• torsiontorsion•• ejection ofejection ofinfill masonryinfill masonry

•• deformation ofdeformation ofstructural nodesstructural nodes

•• detachment ofdetachment ofinternal stairwaysinternal stairways

In the case of total collapse, littleIn the case of total collapse, littlecan be done for the occupants of acan be done for the occupants of abuilding except building except urban heavy rescue.urban heavy rescue.

In the case of total collapse, littleIn the case of total collapse, littlecan be done for the occupants of acan be done for the occupants of abuilding except building except urban heavy rescue.urban heavy rescue.

This is up to three times more likelyThis is up to three times more likelyto be successful if the to be successful if the locationlocationof trapped occupants is knownof trapped occupants is known

(e.g. they can attract attention)(e.g. they can attract attention)..

This is up to three times more likelyThis is up to three times more likelyto be successful if the to be successful if the locationlocationof trapped occupants is knownof trapped occupants is known

(e.g. they can attract attention)(e.g. they can attract attention)..

An example:An example: the the L'AquilaL'Aquila (Italy)(Italy)earthquake of 6 April 2009earthquake of 6 April 2009

An example:An example: the the L'AquilaL'Aquila (Italy)(Italy)earthquake of 6 April 2009earthquake of 6 April 2009

6-25 deaths 3-5 deaths 1-2 deathsn=202

One or two individualsOne or two individualsOne or two individualsOne or two individuals

No deathsNo deathsNo deathsNo deaths

ClustersClustersof multipleof multipledeathsdeaths

ClustersClustersof multipleof multipledeathsdeaths

L'Aquila city

No deaths:No deaths:housing stock washousing stock wasin relatively goodin relatively goodcondition andcondition and

No deaths:No deaths:housing stock washousing stock wasin relatively goodin relatively goodcondition andcondition andcondition andcondition and

damage was limiteddamage was limitedcondition andcondition and

damage was limiteddamage was limited

Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 1scale: 1--22Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 1scale: 1--22

One or two individuals:One or two individuals:people rushed outsidepeople rushed outsideand were killed byand were killed byfalling masonryfalling masonry

One or two individuals:One or two individuals:people rushed outsidepeople rushed outsideand were killed byand were killed byfalling masonryfalling masonry

Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 3scale: 3--44Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 3scale: 3--44

... or in... or inthe collapsethe collapse... or in... or inthe collapsethe collapsethe collapsethe collapseof stairwells.of stairwells.the collapsethe collapseof stairwells.of stairwells.

Clusters of Clusters of multiple deaths:multiple deaths:

spectacular collapsesspectacular collapsesof multiof multi--occupancyoccupancybuildings with upbuildings with up

to 25 deaths each:to 25 deaths each:

Clusters of Clusters of multiple deaths:multiple deaths:

spectacular collapsesspectacular collapsesof multiof multi--occupancyoccupancybuildings with upbuildings with up

to 25 deaths each:to 25 deaths each:to 25 deaths each:to 25 deaths each:topographictopographic

amplification was anamplification was anadditional factoradditional factor..

to 25 deaths each:to 25 deaths each:topographictopographic

amplification was anamplification was anadditional factoradditional factor..

Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 5scale: 5

Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 5scale: 5

Unexpected earthquakeUnexpected earthquakeUnexpected earthquakeUnexpected earthquake

MildMildimpactimpactMildMildimpactimpact

SevereSevereimpactimpactSevereSevereimpactimpact

CatastrophicCatastrophicimpactimpact

CatastrophicCatastrophicimpactimpact

VeryVerylimitedlimiteddamagedamage

VeryVerylimitedlimiteddamagedamage

Fall ofFall ofheavyheavyobjectsobjects

Fall ofFall ofheavyheavyobjectsobjects

PartialPartialcollapsecollapsePartialPartialcollapsecollapse

TotalTotalcollapsecollapseTotalTotal

collapsecollapse

SeekSeekplace ofplace ofrefugerefuge

SeekSeekplace ofplace ofrefugerefuge

RemainRemainin situin situRemainRemainin situin situ

SeekSeekpotentialpotentialcavitycavity

SeekSeekpotentialpotentialcavitycavityRushRush

outsideoutsideRushRushoutsideoutside

Absolute immobilityAbsolute immobilityAbsolute immobilityAbsolute immobility Frantic egressFrantic egressFrantic egressFrantic egress

UninjuredUninjuredUninjuredUninjuredLightlyLightlyinjuredinjuredLightlyLightlyinjuredinjured

SeriouslySeriouslyinjuredinjuredSeriouslySeriouslyinjuredinjured

KilledKilledKilledKilled

Earthquake scenario• magnitude range• maximum accelerations• recurrence intervals, etc.

Earthquake scenario• magnitude range• maximum accelerations• recurrence intervals, etc.

Seismicperformanceof buildings

Seismicperformanceof buildingsof buildings• modes of failure• typologies of damage

of buildings• modes of failure• typologies of damage

Risk factors• behaviour of building occupantsduring earthquakes

• effectiveness ofsearch and rescue

Risk factors• behaviour of building occupantsduring earthquakes

• effectiveness ofsearch and rescue

Models of typical Models of typical Models of typical Models of typical vernacular housingvernacular housingbuilding typesbuilding types

Analysis ofAnalysis ofcharacteristiccharacteristicfailure modesfailure modes

Analysis ofAnalysis ofcharacteristiccharacteristicfailure modesfailure modes

DeterminationDeterminationof appropriateof appropriateof appropriateof appropriatecrisis behaviourcrisis behaviour

Education andEducation andtraining oftraining ofhouseholdshouseholds

Culture ofCulture ofprotectionprotection

and resilienceand resilience

Resilience against earthquakes:Resilience against earthquakes:Ten suggestions for actionTen suggestions for action

Resilience against earthquakes:Resilience against earthquakes:Ten suggestions for actionTen suggestions for action

Tell people Tell people what to dowhat to do in an earthquake.in an earthquake.Tell people Tell people what to dowhat to do in an earthquake.in an earthquake.

Develop Develop urban search andurban search andrescue rescue capacity on site.capacity on site.Develop Develop urban search andurban search andrescue rescue capacity on site.capacity on site.

Reduce Reduce nonnon--structuralstructural asaswell as structural hazards.well as structural hazards.Reduce Reduce nonnon--structuralstructural asaswell as structural hazards.well as structural hazards.

Plan Plan flexibly.flexibly.Plan Plan flexibly.flexibly.

Create Create networks.networks.Create Create networks.networks.

EncourageEncourage governance.governance.EncourageEncourage governance.governance.

Adapt and disseminate Adapt and disseminate good practice.good practice.Adapt and disseminate Adapt and disseminate good practice.good practice.

Ensure that Ensure that Disaster Risk ReductionDisaster Risk Reduction(DRR)(DRR) programmes are sustainableprogrammes are sustainableEnsure that Ensure that Disaster Risk ReductionDisaster Risk Reduction(DRR)(DRR) programmes are sustainableprogrammes are sustainable

Create a strategy for recoveringCreate a strategy for recoveringfrom the from the nextnext disaster.disaster.

Create a strategy for recoveringCreate a strategy for recoveringfrom the from the nextnext disaster.disaster.

Create a Create a cultureculture of of resilienceresilienceagainst disasters.against disasters.

Create a Create a cultureculture of of resilienceresilienceagainst disasters.against disasters.

...and avoid themyth of panic:it should not be

treated as arelevant factorin emergency

planningplanning

Thank youThank youfor yourfor yourattention!attention!

Thank youThank youfor yourfor yourattention!attention!

david.alexander@grforum.orgemergency-planning.blogspot.comThis presentation can be downloaded from:-

www.slideshare.com/dealexander

david.alexander@grforum.orgemergency-planning.blogspot.comThis presentation can be downloaded from:-

www.slideshare.com/dealexander