Earthquake resilience
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Transcript of Earthquake resilience
Resilience Against EarthquakesResilience Against EarthquakesSome Practical SuggestionsSome Practical Suggestionsfor Planners and Managersfor Planners and Managers
Resilience Against EarthquakesResilience Against EarthquakesSome Practical SuggestionsSome Practical Suggestionsfor Planners and Managersfor Planners and Managers
David AlexanderDavid AlexanderGlobal Risk Forum Global Risk Forum -- Davos (CH)Davos (CH)
What is resilience [resiliency]?What is resilience [resiliency]?What is resilience [resiliency]?What is resilience [resiliency]?
•• a combination of resistance anda combination of resistance andadaptationadaptation (coping, capacity, capability)(coping, capacity, capability)
•• a combination of resistance anda combination of resistance andadaptationadaptation (coping, capacity, capability)(coping, capacity, capability)
•• ability to maintain ability to maintain livelihoodslivelihoods and and tenortenorof lifeof life in the face of disaster shocksin the face of disaster shocks
•• ability to maintain ability to maintain livelihoodslivelihoods and and tenortenorof lifeof life in the face of disaster shocksin the face of disaster shocks
•• local autonomy and local autonomy and selfself--sufficiencysufficiency..•• local autonomy and local autonomy and selfself--sufficiencysufficiency..
The ingredientsof resilienceThe ingredientsof resilience
Redund
ancy
Redund
ancy
Redund
ancy
Redund
ancy
AttitudeAttitudeAttitudeAttitudeAdaptabilityAdaptabilityAdaptabilityAdaptability AttitudeAttitudeAttitudeAttitude
Participation
Participation
Participation
Participation
AdaptabilityAdaptabilityAdaptabilityAdaptability
...and...andcommunicationcommunication
...and...andcommunicationcommunication
Wisdom:Wisdom: abilityability toto take take decisionsdecisionson the on the basisbasis ofof principlesprinciples,,experienceexperience and and knowledgeknowledge
Knowledge:Knowledge: understanding of howunderstanding of howthings function (or should function)things function (or should function)
Source: World Disasters Report 2005
things function (or should function)things function (or should function)
Information:Information: description ofdescription ofphysical and social situationsphysical and social situations
Data:Data: basic facts and statisticsbasic facts and statistics
COMMUNICATIONCOMMUNICATION
DRRDRR
KnowledgeKnowledge of of communitycommunityvulerabilityvulerability
KnowledgeKnowledgeof hazardsof hazardsandand their their impactsimpacts
DRRDRR
KnowledgeKnowledgeof copingof coping
capacitycapacity andandresilienceresilience
DisasterDisasterRiskRisk
ReductionReduction
OrganisationOrganisationOrganisationOrganisation ResourcesResourcesResourcesResources
SelfSelf--organisationorganisationSelfSelf--organisationorganisation
VolunteerismVolunteerismVolunteerismVolunteerism
Community disaster planningCommunity disaster planningCommunity disaster planningCommunity disaster planning
CommunityCommunityresourcesresourcesCommunityCommunityresourcesresources
DonationsDonationsDonationsDonations
OrganisationOrganisationOrganisationOrganisation ResourcesResourcesResourcesResources
ImposedImposedorganisationorganisationImposedImposedorganisationorganisation
Laws, protocols, directivesLaws, protocols, directivesLaws, protocols, directivesLaws, protocols, directives
Standards, norms, guidelinesStandards, norms, guidelinesStandards, norms, guidelinesStandards, norms, guidelines
GovernmentalGovernmentalresourcesresources
GovernmentalGovernmentalresourcesresources
International resourcesInternational resourcesInternational resourcesInternational resources
Organisationneed not beexpensive andthe cost of
Organisationneed not beexpensive andthe cost ofthe cost ofcommunicationis continuallyfalling...
the cost ofcommunicationis continuallyfalling...
Vehicles are an important source ofVehicles are an important source ofpeople's vulnerability to earthquakes, people's vulnerability to earthquakes, but...but...
Vehicles are an important source ofVehicles are an important source ofpeople's vulnerability to earthquakes, people's vulnerability to earthquakes, but...but...
VernacularVernacularhousing:housing:the mainthe mainsourcesource
VernacularVernacularhousing:housing:the mainthe mainsourcesourcethe mainthe mainsourcesourceof riskof risk
the mainthe mainsourcesourceof riskof risk
This is where This is where we need resilience...we need resilience...
A simpleA simplemethodologymethodologycould determinecould determinewhich part of awhich part of ahouse is house is leastleastliable to damageliable to damage
A simpleA simplemethodologymethodologycould determinecould determinewhich part of awhich part of ahouse is house is leastleastliable to damageliable to damageliable to damageliable to damagein an earthquake in an earthquake and whatand whatpatterns of patterns of damagedamagemight occur.might occur.
liable to damageliable to damagein an earthquake in an earthquake and whatand whatpatterns of patterns of damagedamagemight occur.might occur.
Can we deviseCan we devisea strategy to enhance a strategy to enhance
selfself--protective behaviour?protective behaviour?
Can we deviseCan we devisea strategy to enhance a strategy to enhance
selfself--protective behaviour?protective behaviour?
A scale for damage and personal risk levelA scale for damage and personal risk level
DamageDamage levellevel: : [1] [1] minimum minimum damagedamagetoto wallswalls, , fitmentsfitments and and furniturefurniture..
Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : prudentprudentbehaviourbehaviour willwill minimise minimise risksrisks..
DamageDamage levellevel: : [1] [1] minimum minimum damagedamagetoto wallswalls, , fitmentsfitments and and furniturefurniture..
Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : prudentprudentbehaviourbehaviour willwill minimise minimise risksrisks..
A scale for damage and personal risk levelA scale for damage and personal risk level
DamageDamage levellevel: : [2][2] significant damageto structures, cladding and fitments.
Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : significantrisk of injury but not of death..
DamageDamage levellevel: : [2][2] significant damageto structures, cladding and fitments.
Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : significantrisk of injury but not of death..
A scale for damage and personal risk levelA scale for damage and personal risk level
DamageDamage levellevel: : [3][3] general damage andcollapse of architectural elements.
Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : significant risk ofinjury but relatively low risk of death.
DamageDamage levellevel: : [3][3] general damage andcollapse of architectural elements.
Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : significant risk ofinjury but relatively low risk of death.
A scale for damage and personal risk levelA scale for damage and personal risk level
DamageDamage levellevel: : [4][4] serious damageor partial collapse of building.
Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : strong risk ofinjury and significant risk of death.
DamageDamage levellevel: : [4][4] serious damageor partial collapse of building.
Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : strong risk ofinjury and significant risk of death.
A scale for damage and personal risk levelA scale for damage and personal risk level
DamageDamage levellevel: : [5][5] collapse ofmore than 50% of the structure.
Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : limited and mainlyunpredictable probability of survival.
DamageDamage levellevel: : [5][5] collapse ofmore than 50% of the structure.
Personal Personal riskrisk levellevel: : limited and mainlyunpredictable probability of survival.
Poor buildingPoor buildingqualityquality
(low seismic(low seismicresistance)resistance)
Poor buildingPoor buildingqualityquality
(low seismic(low seismicresistance)resistance)
ProximityProximityto epicentreto epicentreand faultand faultrupturerupture
ProximityProximityto epicentreto epicentreand faultand faultrupturerupture
QQQQ EEEE
ConcentrationConcentrationof casualtiesof casualtiesConcentrationConcentrationof casualtiesof casualties
DeathsDeaths
InjuriesInjuries
QQ EE
TT SS
DeathsDeathsDeathsDeaths
InjuriesInjuriesInjuriesInjuries
QQQQ EEEE
TTTT SSSSTopographicTopographicamplificationamplificationTopographicTopographicamplificationamplification
SedimentarySedimentaryamplificationamplificationSedimentarySedimentaryamplificationamplificationTTTT SSSS
of casualtiesof casualties
CCof casualtiesof casualties
CC
C = C = f f { E,Q,S,T }{ E,Q,S,T }C = C = f f { E,Q,S,T }{ E,Q,S,T }
TT SSTTTT SSSS
Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:
•• site factorssite factors•• site factorssite factors
Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:
•• building type and materialsbuilding type and materials•• building type and materialsbuilding type and materials
[Masonry] [Reinforced concrete][Masonry] [Reinforced concrete][Masonry] [Reinforced concrete][Masonry] [Reinforced concrete]
•• plan and elevation of buildingplan and elevation of building•• plan and elevation of buildingplan and elevation of building
Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:
Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:
•• urban form factorsurban form factors•• urban form factorsurban form factors
[battering[battering[battering[battering[battering[batteringbybyadjacentadjacentbuildings]buildings]
[battering[batteringbybyadjacentadjacentbuildings]buildings]
Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:
•• mixed construction?mixed construction?•• mixed construction?mixed construction?
[Stone and[Stone andconcreteconcreteblock]block]
[Stone and[Stone andconcreteconcreteblock]block]
Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:
•• state of maintenancestate of maintenance•• state of maintenancestate of maintenance
Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:Building quality and seismic resistance:
•• occupancy factorsoccupancy factors•• occupancy factorsoccupancy factors
One needs to investigate the One needs to investigate the relativerelativeimportanceimportance of these factors inof these factors in
different situationsdifferent situations
One needs to investigate the One needs to investigate the relativerelativeimportanceimportance of these factors inof these factors in
different situationsdifferent situations
sitesitefactorsfactors
urban formurban formfactorsfactors
building typebuilding typeand materialsand materials
plan andplan andelevationelevationof buildingof building
mixedmixedconstruction?construction?
Mid-floor damage to multi-occupancy bldg:Mid-floor damage to multi-occupancy bldg:
Intertia effectIntertia effectIntertia effectIntertia effect
Interaction = damageInteraction = damageInteraction = damageInteraction = damage
Basal accelerationBasal accelerationBasal accelerationBasal acceleration
Interaction = damageInteraction = damageInteraction = damageInteraction = damage
Lack of stiffness in frameLack of stiffness in frameLack of stiffness in frameLack of stiffness in frame
For example...For example... what is the typicalwhat is the typicalpattern of seismic failurepattern of seismic failure of Iranianof Iranianvernacular housing of any given type?vernacular housing of any given type?
For example...For example... what is the typicalwhat is the typicalpattern of seismic failurepattern of seismic failure of Iranianof Iranianvernacular housing of any given type?vernacular housing of any given type?
•• basal accelerationbasal acceleration•• inertial displacementinertial displacement•• spalling of façadespalling of façade•• torsiontorsion
•• basal accelerationbasal acceleration•• inertial displacementinertial displacement•• spalling of façadespalling of façade•• torsiontorsion
Some possible modes of failureSome possible modes of failureSome possible modes of failureSome possible modes of failure
•• torsiontorsion•• ejection ofejection ofinfill masonryinfill masonry
•• deformation ofdeformation ofstructural nodesstructural nodes
•• detachment ofdetachment ofinternal stairwaysinternal stairways
•• torsiontorsion•• ejection ofejection ofinfill masonryinfill masonry
•• deformation ofdeformation ofstructural nodesstructural nodes
•• detachment ofdetachment ofinternal stairwaysinternal stairways
In the case of total collapse, littleIn the case of total collapse, littlecan be done for the occupants of acan be done for the occupants of abuilding except building except urban heavy rescue.urban heavy rescue.
In the case of total collapse, littleIn the case of total collapse, littlecan be done for the occupants of acan be done for the occupants of abuilding except building except urban heavy rescue.urban heavy rescue.
This is up to three times more likelyThis is up to three times more likelyto be successful if the to be successful if the locationlocationof trapped occupants is knownof trapped occupants is known
(e.g. they can attract attention)(e.g. they can attract attention)..
This is up to three times more likelyThis is up to three times more likelyto be successful if the to be successful if the locationlocationof trapped occupants is knownof trapped occupants is known
(e.g. they can attract attention)(e.g. they can attract attention)..
An example:An example: the the L'AquilaL'Aquila (Italy)(Italy)earthquake of 6 April 2009earthquake of 6 April 2009
An example:An example: the the L'AquilaL'Aquila (Italy)(Italy)earthquake of 6 April 2009earthquake of 6 April 2009
6-25 deaths 3-5 deaths 1-2 deathsn=202
One or two individualsOne or two individualsOne or two individualsOne or two individuals
No deathsNo deathsNo deathsNo deaths
ClustersClustersof multipleof multipledeathsdeaths
ClustersClustersof multipleof multipledeathsdeaths
L'Aquila city
No deaths:No deaths:housing stock washousing stock wasin relatively goodin relatively goodcondition andcondition and
No deaths:No deaths:housing stock washousing stock wasin relatively goodin relatively goodcondition andcondition andcondition andcondition and
damage was limiteddamage was limitedcondition andcondition and
damage was limiteddamage was limited
Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 1scale: 1--22Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 1scale: 1--22
One or two individuals:One or two individuals:people rushed outsidepeople rushed outsideand were killed byand were killed byfalling masonryfalling masonry
One or two individuals:One or two individuals:people rushed outsidepeople rushed outsideand were killed byand were killed byfalling masonryfalling masonry
Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 3scale: 3--44Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 3scale: 3--44
... or in... or inthe collapsethe collapse... or in... or inthe collapsethe collapsethe collapsethe collapseof stairwells.of stairwells.the collapsethe collapseof stairwells.of stairwells.
Clusters of Clusters of multiple deaths:multiple deaths:
spectacular collapsesspectacular collapsesof multiof multi--occupancyoccupancybuildings with upbuildings with up
to 25 deaths each:to 25 deaths each:
Clusters of Clusters of multiple deaths:multiple deaths:
spectacular collapsesspectacular collapsesof multiof multi--occupancyoccupancybuildings with upbuildings with up
to 25 deaths each:to 25 deaths each:to 25 deaths each:to 25 deaths each:topographictopographic
amplification was anamplification was anadditional factoradditional factor..
to 25 deaths each:to 25 deaths each:topographictopographic
amplification was anamplification was anadditional factoradditional factor..
Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 5scale: 5
Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 5scale: 5
Unexpected earthquakeUnexpected earthquakeUnexpected earthquakeUnexpected earthquake
MildMildimpactimpactMildMildimpactimpact
SevereSevereimpactimpactSevereSevereimpactimpact
CatastrophicCatastrophicimpactimpact
CatastrophicCatastrophicimpactimpact
VeryVerylimitedlimiteddamagedamage
VeryVerylimitedlimiteddamagedamage
Fall ofFall ofheavyheavyobjectsobjects
Fall ofFall ofheavyheavyobjectsobjects
PartialPartialcollapsecollapsePartialPartialcollapsecollapse
TotalTotalcollapsecollapseTotalTotal
collapsecollapse
SeekSeekplace ofplace ofrefugerefuge
SeekSeekplace ofplace ofrefugerefuge
RemainRemainin situin situRemainRemainin situin situ
SeekSeekpotentialpotentialcavitycavity
SeekSeekpotentialpotentialcavitycavityRushRush
outsideoutsideRushRushoutsideoutside
Absolute immobilityAbsolute immobilityAbsolute immobilityAbsolute immobility Frantic egressFrantic egressFrantic egressFrantic egress
UninjuredUninjuredUninjuredUninjuredLightlyLightlyinjuredinjuredLightlyLightlyinjuredinjured
SeriouslySeriouslyinjuredinjuredSeriouslySeriouslyinjuredinjured
KilledKilledKilledKilled
Earthquake scenario• magnitude range• maximum accelerations• recurrence intervals, etc.
Earthquake scenario• magnitude range• maximum accelerations• recurrence intervals, etc.
Seismicperformanceof buildings
Seismicperformanceof buildingsof buildings• modes of failure• typologies of damage
of buildings• modes of failure• typologies of damage
Risk factors• behaviour of building occupantsduring earthquakes
• effectiveness ofsearch and rescue
Risk factors• behaviour of building occupantsduring earthquakes
• effectiveness ofsearch and rescue
Models of typical Models of typical Models of typical Models of typical vernacular housingvernacular housingbuilding typesbuilding types
Analysis ofAnalysis ofcharacteristiccharacteristicfailure modesfailure modes
Analysis ofAnalysis ofcharacteristiccharacteristicfailure modesfailure modes
DeterminationDeterminationof appropriateof appropriateof appropriateof appropriatecrisis behaviourcrisis behaviour
Education andEducation andtraining oftraining ofhouseholdshouseholds
Culture ofCulture ofprotectionprotection
and resilienceand resilience
Resilience against earthquakes:Resilience against earthquakes:Ten suggestions for actionTen suggestions for action
Resilience against earthquakes:Resilience against earthquakes:Ten suggestions for actionTen suggestions for action
Tell people Tell people what to dowhat to do in an earthquake.in an earthquake.Tell people Tell people what to dowhat to do in an earthquake.in an earthquake.
Develop Develop urban search andurban search andrescue rescue capacity on site.capacity on site.Develop Develop urban search andurban search andrescue rescue capacity on site.capacity on site.
Reduce Reduce nonnon--structuralstructural asaswell as structural hazards.well as structural hazards.Reduce Reduce nonnon--structuralstructural asaswell as structural hazards.well as structural hazards.
Plan Plan flexibly.flexibly.Plan Plan flexibly.flexibly.
Create Create networks.networks.Create Create networks.networks.
EncourageEncourage governance.governance.EncourageEncourage governance.governance.
Adapt and disseminate Adapt and disseminate good practice.good practice.Adapt and disseminate Adapt and disseminate good practice.good practice.
Ensure that Ensure that Disaster Risk ReductionDisaster Risk Reduction(DRR)(DRR) programmes are sustainableprogrammes are sustainableEnsure that Ensure that Disaster Risk ReductionDisaster Risk Reduction(DRR)(DRR) programmes are sustainableprogrammes are sustainable
Create a strategy for recoveringCreate a strategy for recoveringfrom the from the nextnext disaster.disaster.
Create a strategy for recoveringCreate a strategy for recoveringfrom the from the nextnext disaster.disaster.
Create a Create a cultureculture of of resilienceresilienceagainst disasters.against disasters.
Create a Create a cultureculture of of resilienceresilienceagainst disasters.against disasters.
...and avoid themyth of panic:it should not be
treated as arelevant factorin emergency
planningplanning
Thank youThank youfor yourfor yourattention!attention!
Thank youThank youfor yourfor yourattention!attention!
[email protected] presentation can be downloaded from:-
www.slideshare.com/dealexander
[email protected] presentation can be downloaded from:-
www.slideshare.com/dealexander