Post on 13-Jan-2016
Earth System Science Partnership
Global Water System Project
Holger Hoff
Earth System Science Partnership
• a new phase of integrated research
• focusing on human-environment interactions
• assessing vulnerabilities, limits and critical thresholds of Earth system components
• addressing policy relevant science questions that cannot be answered by any of the programmes individually
Pielke et al., (2001) Ecol. Appl. 7
Biosphere Interactions
Land use change effects
River Basins & Coasts
• Impact of riverine carbon, nutrients, water, sediment and toxins on the coast
• Critical loads and thresholds
Buddemeier et al (2002), LOICZ Report 24
CLIVAR – Climate Variability and Predictability
e.g.:
• Will there be an El Niño next year?
• Will the next monsoon cause drought or flooding?
GEWEX – Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
to observe, understand and model the global hydrological cycle, predict the variations and impacts on regional hydrological processes and water resources
Continental Scale Experiments
GECHS - Global Environmental Change and Human Security
Water Security
i. Effects of dams and other development projects on access to water resources
ii. Teleconnections in the hydrological cycle, e.g. through links to agriculture and trade
iii. Extent and causes of scarcity, wrt existing allocation arrangements (equity issue see food – Mohamed Salih)
IT – Industrial Transformation
e.g.:
decoupling the need of cities for water from effects on the hydrological cycle
Diversitas
Freshwater biodiversity assessment and drivers of change
Freshwater biodiversity changes, e.g related to climate change, species introduction or eutrophication
Ecosystem resilience or adaptation to human impacts
Rational :
Humans have begun to affect the Global Water System significantly without adequate understanding of how the system works
Global Water System Project
Mission:Improve knowledge of, and responsible interaction with the GWSe.g. through global observation
consolidation of global data setspredictive and coupled modelling
Global Water System Project
Overarching question:
How are humans changing the global water cycle,
the associated biogeochemical cycles,
and the biological components of the
Global Water System,
and what are the social feedbacks
arising from these changes?
Integrative questions I. What are the magnitudes of global-scale changes in the Global
Water System, attributable e.g. to changing water use, water management, land use, and climate variability and change?
II. What are the main mechanisms by which human activities are affecting the Global Water System?
III. To what extent is the Global Water System resilient to global change? How adaptable is the Global Water System and how capable are water management systems and ecosystems to cope?
Global Water System Project
GWSP Pilot Project on Virtual Water Trade
IGBP: nitrogen and nutrient effects IHDP: institutional settings of water allocation at all scales WCRP: climatic hotspots (aridification, droughts) that will
induce additional VWTDiversitas: ecological consequences
South Asia:
“New export opportunities are emerging, for non-traditional items”
Aggarwal, Joshi, Ingram, Gupta, 2003
Hoekstra et al 2003
Water & Food
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Wat
er W
ith
dra
wal
(km
3)
Agricultural UseIndustrial UseMunicipal Use
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Wat
er C
on
sum
pti
on
(km
3)Agricultural UseIndustrial UseMunicipal UseReservoirs
Shiklomanov 2003
Common interests of GWSP & GECAFS
GWSP GECAFS
about water security about food security (provision)
adaptability of the Global Water System
adaptation strategies for food provision
supporting water policies supporting food policies
effects of changing food preferences on the GWS
analysis of changing food preferences
Production (million tons)
1999-2000 2020
Rice 85.4 122.1
Wheat 71.0 102.8
Vegetables 84.5 149.7
Meat and eggs
3.7 7.8
Virtual water content (per kg)
Potatoes: 100-150 lWheat: 1000-2000 lRice: 1500-3500 lBeef: 15,000 – 20,000 l
Consequences for regional water resources and the GWS ?
Common interests of GWSP & GECAFS South Asia
Aggarwal, Joshi, Ingram, Gupta, 2003
Water & Food in the IGP
Increasing competition for water with non-agricultural usersIncreasing hydrological variability and extremes (glacier melting)
Need to improve utilization of groundwaterNeed to improve reuse of wastewater in agriculture
Nepal: decreasing dry-season flow – why ?
The Global Water System Project invites your contribution
contact
www.gwsp.org holger.hoff@pik-potsdam.de