Does growing soy destroy Amazon rainforest?

The role of pasture and soybean in deforestation of the The role of pasture and soybean in deforestation of the Brazilian AmazonBrazilian Amazon

Navin Ramankutty – McGill University. Oliver Coomes – McGill University

Elizabeth Barona – CIAT Glenn Hyman - CIAT

AAG - Annual meeting 2010 Washington D.C..

“the increasing role of large-scale agriculture and the vast remaining potential expansion of farming in Amazon is causing concern about deforestation and the loss of ecosystem goods and services “(Foley 2007; Fearnside 2005; Morton 2006).

Brazil’s territory ~ 850

Potential farmland 320

Cultivated land – all crops

Million hectares

Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Brazil

Deforestation in the AmazonDeforestation in the Amazon

FireFireFireFireLoggingLoggingLoggingLogging

AgricultureAgricultureAgricultureAgriculture

Cattle ranchingCattle ranchingCattle ranchingCattle ranchingRoadsRoadsRoadsRoads

International debateInternational debate

Deforestation is related to the expanding soybean sector

Cattle, not soy, drives Amazon deforestation: News Report http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE53D65C20090414.

Deforestation is related to growth of the cattle industry

Expansion of cropland (mainly soy) into areas previously covered by forest has become one of the main causes of deforestation in southern Brazilian Amazon. (Morton et. al 2006)

Soybean is expanding into land previously under pasture, and not causing new deforestation (Mueller, 2003; Brandao et.al 2005)

Is soybean or pasture expansion the key driver of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon?

• Agricultural expansion

•Soybean versus Pasture

• Data at municipality level for the entire Amazon for 2000-2006

• Census/Survey from IBGE

• Estimated annual pasture (based on livestock data)

• Deforestation from INPE

•Relationship between agricultural expansion and deforestation

•Spatial patterns, statistical relationship, and potential spatial shift in land use cover were analyzed over the period 2000-2006

Agricultural Expansion

Source: FAOSTAT 2006.

Main countries importing soybean products from BrazilMain countries importing soybean products from Brazil

SOYBEANSOYBEAN

Area under cultivation in Brazil in 2006Area under cultivation in Brazil in 2006SOYBEANSOYBEAN

Source: IBGE (2006).

CROPS% harvested area change

1990 1995 2000 2006 1990 to 2006

Soybean 11,487,303 11,675,005 13,656,771 22,047,349 93.46Maize 11,394,307 13,946,320 11,890,376 12,613,094 10.79Sugar Cane 4,272,602 4,559,062 4,804,511 6,144,286 16.57Beans 4,680,094 5,006,403 4,332,545 4,034,383 -5.71Rice 3,946,691 4,373,538 3,664,804 2,970,918 -8.64Cassava 1,937,567 1,946,163 1,708,875 1,896,509 -0.36Wheat 2,680,989 994,734 1,138,687 1,560,175 -9.92Cotton 1,391,884 1,103,536 801,618 898,008 -4.37Sorghum 137,758 153,961 528,061 722,200 5.17

Total harvested area (Ha)

Livestock productionLivestock production

Animal Total animal units Percentage

category 1990 1995 2000 2006 2006

Cattle 141,584,610 155,753,722 164,077,786 197,861,606 93.17%

Horses 5,787,045 6,054,538 5,547,335 5,452,630 2.57%

Buffalos 1,629,052 1,922,237 1,291,130 1,350,129 0.64%

Donkeys 1,129,280 1,131,824 1,044,912 1,000,488 0.47%

Mules 1,866,668 1,819,162 1,217,851 1,253,296 0.59%

Goats 2,325,782 2,207,304 1,808,175 2,018,878 0.95%

Sheep 4,534,176 4,153,792 3,219,687 3,427,127 1.61%

Total 158,856,614 173,042,578 178,206,876 212,364,154

Crop and pasture distribution- 2006 Crop and pasture distribution- 2006 in Legal Amazonin Legal Amazon

PASTUREPASTURE

Large-scale forest conversion for cattle ranching along the Large-scale forest conversion for cattle ranching along the arc of deforestationarc of deforestation

Data Source

Data ProcessingData Processing

Compiling census data on land use for 2000-2006:

- Total harvested Area (IBGE/SIDRA database)

- Estimated pastures (IBGE Livestock data)

DeforestationINPE (The National Institute for space research in Brazil) / PRODES (Amazon Deforestation Project): Annual deforested areas based on LANDSAT Images

Developing consistent administrative boundariesDeveloping consistent administrative boundaries

Estimated pasture area (from IBGE Livestock data):

1- Total Livestock unit

2- Livestock stocking density and linear interpolation

3- Estimated area under pasture for 2000-2006

TLU(i,t)= N(i,t,k) fAU(i,k)k

LSD(i,t)=TLU(i,t)/P(i,t), t=1996,2006

LSD(i,t)=LSD(i,1996)+LSD(i,2006)−LSD(i,1996)(2006 −1996)

(t−1996), t=2000,2001,...,2006

Pest(i,t)=TLU(i,t)LSD(i,t)

, t=2000,2001,...,2006

Spatial and Statistical Analysis

Statistical relationship between change in deforested area and change in agricultural area

Pasture change Soybean change

Soybean change

MATO GROSSO

Soybean change

RONDONIA

ePasture change soybean change soybean change

Mato Grosso

Rondonia

Spatial Patterns: Spatial Patterns: Changes in area of different land uses in the Legal AmazonChanges in area of different land uses in the Legal Amazon

Deforestation Pasture

SoybeanTotal harvested crops area

Movement of the centroid of land use type

Land-use transitions between 2000 and 2006

Main findings

Consistent with other studies, soybean expansion is replacing pasture areas

However, soybeans may have displaced pasture further north into the forest areas, causing indirect deforestation there.

Even if the proximate cause of deforestation

were mainly ranching, it is likely that soy cultivation is a major underlying cause

CONCLUSION

Need for more large-scale studies and more field-based research to test the land-use displacement hypothesis.

Policy makers face important tradeoffs to satisfy the demands of the cattle and soybean industries vs conservation interests: policies that benefit one group, will likely work to the detriment of the others.

The dynamics of land-use changes are complex, and simple-minded policies to curb deforestation, without a full understanding of the underlying dynamics, will not work

THANK YOU!

Does growing soy destroy Amazon rainforest?

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