Does growing soy destroy Amazon rainforest?
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Transcript of Does growing soy destroy Amazon rainforest?
The role of pasture and soybean in deforestation of the The role of pasture and soybean in deforestation of the Brazilian AmazonBrazilian Amazon
Navin Ramankutty – McGill University. Oliver Coomes – McGill University
Elizabeth Barona – CIAT Glenn Hyman - CIAT
AAG - Annual meeting 2010 Washington D.C..
“the increasing role of large-scale agriculture and the vast remaining potential expansion of farming in Amazon is causing concern about deforestation and the loss of ecosystem goods and services “(Foley 2007; Fearnside 2005; Morton 2006).
Brazil’s territory ~ 850
Potential farmland 320
Cultivated land – all crops
60
Million hectares
Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Brazil
Deforestation in the AmazonDeforestation in the Amazon
FireFireFireFireLoggingLoggingLoggingLogging
AgricultureAgricultureAgricultureAgriculture
Cattle ranchingCattle ranchingCattle ranchingCattle ranchingRoadsRoadsRoadsRoads
International debateInternational debate
Deforestation is related to the expanding soybean sector
Cattle, not soy, drives Amazon deforestation: News Report http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE53D65C20090414.
Deforestation is related to growth of the cattle industry
Expansion of cropland (mainly soy) into areas previously covered by forest has become one of the main causes of deforestation in southern Brazilian Amazon. (Morton et. al 2006)
Soybean is expanding into land previously under pasture, and not causing new deforestation (Mueller, 2003; Brandao et.al 2005)
Is soybean or pasture expansion the key driver of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon?
• Agricultural expansion
•Soybean versus Pasture
• Data at municipality level for the entire Amazon for 2000-2006
• Census/Survey from IBGE
• Estimated annual pasture (based on livestock data)
• Deforestation from INPE
•Relationship between agricultural expansion and deforestation
•Spatial patterns, statistical relationship, and potential spatial shift in land use cover were analyzed over the period 2000-2006
Agricultural Expansion
Source: FAOSTAT 2006.
Main countries importing soybean products from BrazilMain countries importing soybean products from Brazil
SOYBEANSOYBEAN
Area under cultivation in Brazil in 2006Area under cultivation in Brazil in 2006SOYBEANSOYBEAN
Source: IBGE (2006).
CROPS% harvested area change
1990 1995 2000 2006 1990 to 2006
Soybean 11,487,303 11,675,005 13,656,771 22,047,349 93.46Maize 11,394,307 13,946,320 11,890,376 12,613,094 10.79Sugar Cane 4,272,602 4,559,062 4,804,511 6,144,286 16.57Beans 4,680,094 5,006,403 4,332,545 4,034,383 -5.71Rice 3,946,691 4,373,538 3,664,804 2,970,918 -8.64Cassava 1,937,567 1,946,163 1,708,875 1,896,509 -0.36Wheat 2,680,989 994,734 1,138,687 1,560,175 -9.92Cotton 1,391,884 1,103,536 801,618 898,008 -4.37Sorghum 137,758 153,961 528,061 722,200 5.17
Total harvested area (Ha)
Livestock productionLivestock production
Animal Total animal units Percentage
category 1990 1995 2000 2006 2006
Cattle 141,584,610 155,753,722 164,077,786 197,861,606 93.17%
Horses 5,787,045 6,054,538 5,547,335 5,452,630 2.57%
Buffalos 1,629,052 1,922,237 1,291,130 1,350,129 0.64%
Donkeys 1,129,280 1,131,824 1,044,912 1,000,488 0.47%
Mules 1,866,668 1,819,162 1,217,851 1,253,296 0.59%
Goats 2,325,782 2,207,304 1,808,175 2,018,878 0.95%
Sheep 4,534,176 4,153,792 3,219,687 3,427,127 1.61%
Total 158,856,614 173,042,578 178,206,876 212,364,154
Crop and pasture distribution- 2006 Crop and pasture distribution- 2006 in Legal Amazonin Legal Amazon
PASTUREPASTURE
Large-scale forest conversion for cattle ranching along the Large-scale forest conversion for cattle ranching along the arc of deforestationarc of deforestation
Data Source
Data ProcessingData Processing
Compiling census data on land use for 2000-2006:
- Total harvested Area (IBGE/SIDRA database)
- Estimated pastures (IBGE Livestock data)
DeforestationINPE (The National Institute for space research in Brazil) / PRODES (Amazon Deforestation Project): Annual deforested areas based on LANDSAT Images
Developing consistent administrative boundariesDeveloping consistent administrative boundaries
Estimated pasture area (from IBGE Livestock data):
1- Total Livestock unit
2- Livestock stocking density and linear interpolation
3- Estimated area under pasture for 2000-2006
€
TLU(i,t)= N(i,t,k) fAU(i,k)k
∑
€
LSD(i,t)=TLU(i,t)/P(i,t), t=1996,2006
€
LSD(i,t)=LSD(i,1996)+LSD(i,2006)−LSD(i,1996)(2006 −1996)
(t−1996), t=2000,2001,...,2006
€
Pest(i,t)=TLU(i,t)LSD(i,t)
, t=2000,2001,...,2006
Spatial and Statistical Analysis
Statistical relationship between change in deforested area and change in agricultural area
Out
liers
Defo
res t
ati
on
Defo
res t
ati
on
Pasture change Soybean change
Soybean change
MATO GROSSO
Past
ure
ch
an
ge
Defo
res t
ati
on
Defo
res t
ati
on
Pasture change Soybean change
Soybean change
PARA
Past
ure
ch
an
ge
Defo
res t
ati
on
Defo
res t
ati
on
Pasture change Soybean change
Soybean change
RONDONIA
Past
ure
ch
an
ge
Def
ore
sta t
ion
Pas
ture
ch
ang
ePasture change soybean change soybean change
Mato Grosso
Para
Rondonia
Spatial Patterns: Spatial Patterns: Changes in area of different land uses in the Legal AmazonChanges in area of different land uses in the Legal Amazon
Deforestation Pasture
SoybeanTotal harvested crops area
Movement of the centroid of land use type
Land-use transitions between 2000 and 2006
Main findings
Consistent with other studies, soybean expansion is replacing pasture areas
However, soybeans may have displaced pasture further north into the forest areas, causing indirect deforestation there.
Even if the proximate cause of deforestation
were mainly ranching, it is likely that soy cultivation is a major underlying cause
CONCLUSION
Need for more large-scale studies and more field-based research to test the land-use displacement hypothesis.
Policy makers face important tradeoffs to satisfy the demands of the cattle and soybean industries vs conservation interests: policies that benefit one group, will likely work to the detriment of the others.
The dynamics of land-use changes are complex, and simple-minded policies to curb deforestation, without a full understanding of the underlying dynamics, will not work
THANK YOU!