Demographic TrendsDemographic Trends“Where we go from here”“Where we go from here”

Presented by:

Robert M. Lefenfeld

Principal, Real Property Research Group, Inc.

Where we go from here.Where we go from here.

Macro Demographic TrendsRecent Development TrendsProjected Growth PatternsImplications of Trends on Housing

Maryland Population Pyramid 2000-2010Maryland Population Pyramid 2000-2010

-500 -450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

0-4

'5-9

'10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000

20102000

Change in Households by Age of Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2000 - 2010Household Head for Maryland, 2000 - 2010

23.9

-22.6-72.6

78.1

137.4

80.1

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Tho

usan

ds

< 25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45-54 55-64 65+

Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

Maryland Population Pyramid 2010-2020Maryland Population Pyramid 2010-2020

-500 -450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

0-4

'5-9

'10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000

20202010

Bob Lefenfeld:Bob Lefenfeld:

Change in Households by Age of Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2010 - 2020Household Head for Maryland, 2010 - 2020

-5.0

64.2

-32.2 -75.7

79.6

179.7

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Tho

usan

ds

< 25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45-54 55-64 65+

Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

Change in Households by Age of Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2020 - 2030Household Head for Maryland, 2020 - 2030

-0.3-30.3

71.6

-34.5 -72.3

189.9

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Tho

usan

ds

< 25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45-54 55-64 65+

Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

Maryland RegionsMaryland Regions

Job Growth by Md. RegionsJob Growth by Md. Regions

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Baltimore Region Lower Eastern Shore Southern MD

Upper Eastern Shore Western MD Suburban MD

Baltimore Region

Suburban MD

Source: Maryland Department of Labor

Permits by Md. RegionsPermits by Md. Regions

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Baltimore Region Low er Eastern Shore Southern MD Upper Eastern Shore Western MD Suburban MD

Baltimore Region

Suburban MD

Southern MD

Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Impact of Growth ControlsImpact of Growth Controls

Total Housing Units Permitted1990 - 2003

677 601721

2,103

1,763

2,208

2,552

1,891

1,5251,669

1,7981,903

2,667 2,747

1,983

1,5781,778

480572 504

656 640544642676

1,1251,235

986

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003(e)

Washington Co. Frederick Co.

Source: Maryland Department of Planning, RPRG

2000 Commutation Patterns by Md. 2000 Commutation Patterns by Md. RegionRegion

2000 In/FromBaltimore Region

Lower Eastern Shore

Southern MD

Upper Eastern Shore

Western MD

Suburban MD

out of state DC VA

Baltimore Region 91.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 3.6% 2.8% 0.2% 0.5%Lower Eastern Shore 0.5% 87.3% 0.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.2% 9.3% 0.0% 2.0%Southern MD 2.5% 0.0% 88.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 3.3% 0.5% 2.6%Upper Eastern Shore 4.9% 4.3% 0.1% 80.4% 0.0% 0.5% 9.2% 0.1% 0.1%Western MD 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74.2% 2.3% 22.8% 0.0% 0.3%Suburban MD 10.4% 0.0% 3.4% 0.2% 1.3% 72.3% 12.0% 4.2% 6.3%

Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Source: Metropolitan Washington COG

Source: Metropolitan Washington COG

Product ImplicationsProduct Implications

Demographically, Active Adult housing demand growing. – Much AA exurban locations since prime

suburban land premium in these markets. – Smaller, more expensive for sale housing in

urban infill areas.

– Locate close to home. 60% of 55 to 64 buyers buy within county they reside.

Second HomesSecond Homes

Buyers typically 60 years oldIncome $93,000.74 % vacation home, 23 %

investment property.2nd Home w/i 200 miles of primary

resident.

Source: National Association of Realtors

Demand for Rental Housing…Demand for Rental Housing…

Demand increase with echo boom and part of active adult population.

Affordability restricting some households from buying, especially if interest rates increase.

Tax credit primary housing program to address moderate income households.

Reinvestment in urban areas – (Mark to Market, HOPE VI)

Senior HousingSenior Housing

Demand is just starting to build.Evolution of rental housing from

small tax credit projects to larger market rate rental units.

Long term, more demand for integrated campus to serve seniors.

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