Demographic Study ResultsApril 2012

Andrew J. BrowneVice President, Corporate Secretary

“To call me a clerk is a disservice to those who really keep good records.

I was just a guy with a pen who took notes/minutes about 15 years ago when no one else would.

Our records are a mess.”

Survey Comment

– an unidentified clerk of session

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Cross-Functional Team

• Andy Browne, Office of the President• Beth Zornick, Office of the President• Peter Sime, Assistance• Sharon Castillo, Benefits• Todd Ingves, Benefits• Mark Frey, Church Relations• Lisa Guzzardo, Information Technology• Peter Maher, Investments

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Goals of Demographic Study• To create a profile of those serving the church from multiple perspectives

to produce a more accurate picture of the changing face of ministry.

• To verify/challenge some of the recent discussions regarding shifts in the

Church.

• To utilize the findings in the analysis of pension and medical plan

assumptions and plan design.

The data collected and the conclusions drawn from it may inform decisions

regarding whether current benefit levels and plan design will meet future needs.

This demographic study will be presented to the 2012 General Assembly.

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Report Outline

• Methodology• Two Significant Trend Lines

• Declining Numbers• Aging Populations

• Results of Note• The Number of Small Employers• The Value Proposition

• Potential Implications• Q & A

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Methodology: Data Sources

• Worked with Research Services to develop six different surveys

• Worked with Board IT staff to track 18 categories of internal data

• Compared GA Congregational Statistics against Board billing reports

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A Few Surveys

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Surveys

Who surveyed Number surveyed Response rate

Traditional Program Members 1,500 59%

Affiliated Benefits Program Members 1,200 45%

Non-Installed Pastoral Leaders 1,200 60%

Candidates for Ministry 1,168 51%

Congregations 1,200 56%

Middle Governing Body (Mid-council) Leaders 189 68%

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Methodology: Internal Data

• Active, retired, & new members• Ordained, lay, ABP • Age, gender, marital status• Mandated positions

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Methodology: GA Congregational Statistics

• Compared OGA’s Congregational Statistics to Board billing data • As of 12/31/2004 & 1/01/2005• As of 12/31/2009 & 1/01/2010

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Report Outline

• Methodology• Two Significant Trend Lines

• Declining Numbers• Aging Populations

• Results of Note• The Number of Small Employers• The Value Proposition

• Potential Implications• Q & A

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Declining Numbers

A 50,000 ft View of PC(USA) and Benefits Plan Membership

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

PC(USA) (left scale) Total Plan Traditional Plan Ministers

PC(USA) Candidates Retired

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Mandated Pastoral Positions19

97

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Pastors Associate Pastors

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Aging Populations

Average Age - All Active Members19

87

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

Lay Ministers ABP

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Average Age at Plan Entry19

87

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Lay Ministers ABP

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Age Distribution - Ministers

Under 25

25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1995 2000 2005 2010

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Report Outline

• Methodology• Two Significant Trend Lines

• Declining Numbers• Aging Populations

• Results of Note• The Number of Small Employers• The Value Proposition

• Potential Implications• Q & A

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The Number of Small Employers

1 2 3-10 11-20 21-100 100+0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%71%

13% 14%

1% 1% 0%

32%

12%

29%

7%11%

7%

% of total PINs % of total members billed

Number of Members Billed to a PIN

Per

cent

age

Employing Organizations and Billed Members

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Value Proposition

Value of the Benefits Plan(Congregations)

Satisfied orVery Satisfied

Not Satisfied

Amount they pay for the Medical Plan 57% 9%

Value of what they receive from the Board 74% 3%

Likely or Very Likely

Not Likely

Seek to find or investigate alternative medical coverage 32% 38%

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Value of the Benefits Plan(Plan Members)

Value of what they receive from the Board

Satisfied orVery Satisfied

SomewhatSatisfied

Not Satisfied

Traditional 74% 15% 2%

Affiliated Benefits Program (ABP) 62% 19% 4%

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Report Outline

• Methodology• Two Significant Trend Lines

• Declining Numbers• Aging Populations

• Results of Note• The Number of Small Employers• The Value Proposition

• Potential Implications• Q & A

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Potential Implications

Age Distribution

BOP Plan Age Distribution vs. U.S. Workforce – December 2010

Under 25

25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

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Medical Costs by Age

<1 1-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900$808

$137

$66 $84$111 $119

$202 $209 $210 $217 $238$297

$386

$486 $498

Expenses Paid Per Month Per Covered Life

Medical Costs by Age – Four-Year Average

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Ordinations and New Plan Members

Ordinations vs. New Minister Plan Members19

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ordinations New Minister Plan Members

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Retirement Age and Social Security

Retirement Age Breakdown: Ministers

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1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

*

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Before 65 At 65 After 65

Retirement Age Breakdown: Ministers

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2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

After 66At 66: Full SSAt 65: Full BOPBefore 65

Churches of Different Sizes

Churches75%

Specialized Ministries/ABP

9%

GA Agencies7%

Presbyteries & Synods5%

PC(USA) Seminaries1% Non-PC(USA) churches

1%

Other (NCDs, Larger Parishes, etc.)1%

Receiving disability 2%

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Report Outline

• Methodology• Two Significant Trend Lines

• Declining Numbers• Aging Populations

• Results of Note• The Number of Small Employers• The Value Proposition

• Potential Implications• Q & A

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Questions... and maybe some answers

and your comments and observations

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