Demographic Study Results April 2012 Andrew J. Browne Vice President, Corporate Secretary.
39
Demographic Study Results April 2012 Andrew J. Browne Vice President, Corporate Secretary
-
Upload
gabriella-elliott -
Category
Documents
-
view
218 -
download
2
description
Cross-Functional Team Andy Browne, Office of the President Beth Zornick, Office of the President Peter Sime, Assistance Sharon Castillo, Benefits Todd Ingves, Benefits Mark Frey, Church Relations Lisa Guzzardo, Information Technology Peter Maher, Investments 3
Transcript of Demographic Study Results April 2012 Andrew J. Browne Vice President, Corporate Secretary.
Demographic Study ResultsApril 2012
Andrew J. BrowneVice President, Corporate Secretary
“To call me a clerk is a disservice to those who really keep good records.
I was just a guy with a pen who took notes/minutes about 15 years ago when no one else would.
Our records are a mess.”
Survey Comment
– an unidentified clerk of session
2
Cross-Functional Team
• Andy Browne, Office of the President• Beth Zornick, Office of the President• Peter Sime, Assistance• Sharon Castillo, Benefits• Todd Ingves, Benefits• Mark Frey, Church Relations• Lisa Guzzardo, Information Technology• Peter Maher, Investments
3
Goals of Demographic Study• To create a profile of those serving the church from multiple perspectives
to produce a more accurate picture of the changing face of ministry.
• To verify/challenge some of the recent discussions regarding shifts in the
Church.
• To utilize the findings in the analysis of pension and medical plan
assumptions and plan design.
The data collected and the conclusions drawn from it may inform decisions
regarding whether current benefit levels and plan design will meet future needs.
This demographic study will be presented to the 2012 General Assembly.
4
Report Outline
• Methodology• Two Significant Trend Lines
• Declining Numbers• Aging Populations
• Results of Note• The Number of Small Employers• The Value Proposition
• Potential Implications• Q & A
5
Methodology: Data Sources
• Worked with Research Services to develop six different surveys
• Worked with Board IT staff to track 18 categories of internal data
• Compared GA Congregational Statistics against Board billing reports
6
A Few Surveys
7
Surveys
Who surveyed Number surveyed Response rate
Traditional Program Members 1,500 59%
Affiliated Benefits Program Members 1,200 45%
Non-Installed Pastoral Leaders 1,200 60%
Candidates for Ministry 1,168 51%
Congregations 1,200 56%
Middle Governing Body (Mid-council) Leaders 189 68%
8
Methodology: Internal Data
• Active, retired, & new members• Ordained, lay, ABP • Age, gender, marital status• Mandated positions
9
Methodology: GA Congregational Statistics
• Compared OGA’s Congregational Statistics to Board billing data • As of 12/31/2004 & 1/01/2005• As of 12/31/2009 & 1/01/2010
10
Report Outline
• Methodology• Two Significant Trend Lines
• Declining Numbers• Aging Populations
• Results of Note• The Number of Small Employers• The Value Proposition
• Potential Implications• Q & A
11
Declining Numbers
A 50,000 ft View of PC(USA) and Benefits Plan Membership
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
PC(USA) (left scale) Total Plan Traditional Plan Ministers
PC(USA) Candidates Retired
13
Mandated Pastoral Positions19
97
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Pastors Associate Pastors
14
Aging Populations
Average Age - All Active Members19
87
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
Lay Ministers ABP
16
Average Age at Plan Entry19
87
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Lay Ministers ABP
17
Age Distribution - Ministers
Under 25
25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1995 2000 2005 2010
18
Report Outline
• Methodology• Two Significant Trend Lines
• Declining Numbers• Aging Populations
• Results of Note• The Number of Small Employers• The Value Proposition
• Potential Implications• Q & A
19
The Number of Small Employers
1 2 3-10 11-20 21-100 100+0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%71%
13% 14%
1% 1% 0%
32%
12%
29%
7%11%
7%
% of total PINs % of total members billed
Number of Members Billed to a PIN
Per
cent
age
Employing Organizations and Billed Members
21
Value Proposition
Value of the Benefits Plan(Congregations)
Satisfied orVery Satisfied
Not Satisfied
Amount they pay for the Medical Plan 57% 9%
Value of what they receive from the Board 74% 3%
Likely or Very Likely
Not Likely
Seek to find or investigate alternative medical coverage 32% 38%
23
Value of the Benefits Plan(Plan Members)
Value of what they receive from the Board
Satisfied orVery Satisfied
SomewhatSatisfied
Not Satisfied
Traditional 74% 15% 2%
Affiliated Benefits Program (ABP) 62% 19% 4%
24
Report Outline
• Methodology• Two Significant Trend Lines
• Declining Numbers• Aging Populations
• Results of Note• The Number of Small Employers• The Value Proposition
• Potential Implications• Q & A
25
Potential Implications
Age Distribution
BOP Plan Age Distribution vs. U.S. Workforce – December 2010
Under 25
25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
28
Medical Costs by Age
<1 1-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900$808
$137
$66 $84$111 $119
$202 $209 $210 $217 $238$297
$386
$486 $498
Expenses Paid Per Month Per Covered Life
Medical Costs by Age – Four-Year Average
30
Ordinations and New Plan Members
Ordinations vs. New Minister Plan Members19
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ordinations New Minister Plan Members
32
Retirement Age and Social Security
Retirement Age Breakdown: Ministers
34
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
*
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Before 65 At 65 After 65
Retirement Age Breakdown: Ministers
35
2009 2010 20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
After 66At 66: Full SSAt 65: Full BOPBefore 65
Churches of Different Sizes
Churches75%
Specialized Ministries/ABP
9%
GA Agencies7%
Presbyteries & Synods5%
PC(USA) Seminaries1% Non-PC(USA) churches
1%
Other (NCDs, Larger Parishes, etc.)1%
Receiving disability 2%
37
Report Outline
• Methodology• Two Significant Trend Lines
• Declining Numbers• Aging Populations
• Results of Note• The Number of Small Employers• The Value Proposition
• Potential Implications• Q & A
39
Questions... and maybe some answers
and your comments and observations
40
