Post on 15-Jan-2016
description
Dale Osborn
ISU Tour
MISO
July 18,2011
1-14-20111
• Oversee the flow of power over the high voltage wholesale transmission system in all or part of 13 states
• Provide independent wholesale transmission system access• Manage power congestion • Reliability coordination• Regional transmission planning• Operate day-ahead and real-time energy markets• Independent market monitor • Set reserve margin requirements
MISO Services
MISO Wind
• MISO has about a 800,000 MW potential for wind generation development- Eastern Interconnection Load is 960,000 MW– Supply greater than demand by a factor of 40– What can be done?
• MISO has 9,400 MW of Wind Generation Connected– Almost all wind has a purchaser- Preferred Provider Agreement
as part of a Renewable Portfolio Standard or goal– Prices in MISO too low for a merchant plant– Gas prices are too low to sell surplus energy except over
existing transmission– Transmission to PJM( east) and others is limited
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1-14-20115
Like on highways, when the wires are too small there is congestion which raise prices
Whose Wind Generation Is Chosen?
• Wind Generation cost about the same-$1,800,000/MW• Wind energy depends on location
– 40% Capacity factor-orange-$80/MWH no tax credits
– 30% Capacity factor-yellow-$100/MWH no tax credits
– The difference could be use to build transmission to deliver wind competitively for an RFP
– 200 miles is roughly the competitive distance with 345 kV transmission- 500 MW to load line
– 1200 miles is the maximum possible today with 800 kV HVDC with 19,000 MW required to load a three line system that would not affect the underlying system.
– MISO can take about a 1500 MW contingency for resource loss, single HVDC lines limited to 1500 MW to be confirmed with a study
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Wind Generation RFPCompetitive Zone30-40%Capacity Factor Change
345 kV Chicago500 MW
345 kVMinneapolis500 MW
800 kV HVDCNYC19,000 MW
Set circle center on wind location to determine theMarketing Zone
Factors Affecting Wind Energy Marketing
• Wind energy is a social choice not an economical choice in most parts of the U.S.- RPS or goals determine the amount of wind being installed
• The price of natural gas determines the competitive level– Present price $4/MBTU- Prices level across U.S.– Price two years ago $8-14/MBTU-Prices high in the east– Price difference between regions pay for transmission
• Economic Development and Jobs keep wind supplies local– Present values of $856,000 per MW of wind generation for Economic
Development cannot be offset by the better performance of with the transmission cost
• Pancaked transmission costs exclude areas from competition- ND, SD, RTO borders except MISO-PJM
–
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New Transmission Creates Jobs• U of Minnesota Duluth Bureau of Business
and Economic Research studied the economic impact of 700 miles of transmission Lines in MN, ND, SD, WI CAPX2020 from 2010 to 2015 at cost of $2B:– $3.4 Billion in sales generated from construction related activity– $1.6 Billion in construction related wages– $149 million in local, state and federal tax revenue
– $1.93 returned to economy for each dollar spent on project– Nearly 8,000 jobs in peak construction year (2013) including
construction and indirect jobs
• Full study at www.capx2020.com
For what levels of wind generation are there MISO plans?
• The Renewable Portfolio Standard for the year 2025 is 23,000 MW
• The Generation Interconnection Queue is 50,000 MW
• The Regional Generation Outlet Study(RGOS) established– Renewable Energy Zones to locate 23,000 MW of wind gen
• Midwest Governors Association
• State Regulators
• Stake Holders
– A overall transmission plan to deliver 23,000 MW of wind energy– Economic information about the plan in the 2010 MTEP
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1-14-2011DRAFT #9 "Master" 11
All Energy Zones
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Transmission and Substation Costs per Mw-mile by Transmission Voltage And Type of Construction
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
345 kVSteel
WoodedAreas
2-345kkVon Steel
500 kV 765 kV 765 HSIL 800 kV GIL 1200 mile-800kVHVDC
$/M
w-M
ile
Lowest cost options
600 1200 1300 2600 5400 5300 6400
345 kV - 765 kv Delivery Capacitywith a 5% voltage drop
on a losseles line
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Miles
PU
SIL
16
Power Transfer Breakover by Voltage
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
200
1,20
0
2,20
0
3,20
0
4,20
0
5,20
0
6,20
0
7,20
0
8,20
0
9,20
0
10,2
00
11,2
00
12,2
00
13,2
00Power Transfer MW
Co
st/M
ile
345 kV AC+600 Mw
1-765kV AC
1-800 kV HVDC
345 kV AC+1000 Mw
Average LMPs for Base, 765kv Overlay, and WIND
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
ON
HY
NY
PP
SU
NC
VP
PJM
EV
AC
AR
WP
SC
PJM
SM
IDW
WE
PL
KP
JMW
CE
CS
TH
RN
DE
TE
D FE
LB
WL
SO
LA
ES
PP
WA
EP
SO
LA
WD
P&
LS
AS
KC
GE
LG
&E
EM
DE
DQ
ED
PC
AR
LM
HE
CIP
&L
PS
IT
VA
SP
CIU
TW
RI
NIP
SB
RE
CM
GE
GR
ES
MM
PH
UC
WP
LS
IGE
WP
PI
NS
PM
PC
AS
EC
IND
NA
LW
ST
CO
ED
KC
PL
MIP
UW
PS
KA
CY
WE
PM
PW
OT
PM
PL
MID
AM
CIL
EE
IN
WP
SIL
PC
SIP
CM
HS
PC
IPS
WA
BN
IS
PR
ILW
AB
DA
UE
PM
DU
NP
PD
LE
SO
PP
D
Avg LMP - 765kV Overlay Avg LMP - Base Case Avg LMP - WIND
Interface AC Flows without an OverlayInterface Flows with an Overlayincluding HVDC
Loop Flow Patterns
Without Overlay
With AC Overlay
With HVDC Overlay
PR ICE
Distance
GenRevenueDifference
LoadSavings
HVDC Is Easier To Regulate Than AC
• Users are identifiable
• Terminals look like generators( supply-injection) and loads( receipt-withdrawal)
• Existing AC system processes can be used to allocate AC costs
• DC costs linked to the schedule and who scheduled
HVDC Easier to Operate than AC for Long Distance Power Transfers
• HVDC can be loaded to its limit– Cannot be overloaded due to contingency- easier to operate-
always know what is available for power transfer– AC power delivery may be decreased due to contingencies in
intervening systems- power transfer capabilities can change hourly
– HVDC only dependent on AC near terminals
HVDC Can Do Things That AC Cannot
• HVDC can skip over congested areas without having to pay a toll to fix the transmission system in intervening areas that are not involved in the market transactions
• HVDC can inject energy strategically
MISO Wind Variability Management
• Wind rich areas do not have much load or generation to manage the variability of the wind- problem
• Managing wind variability at presently projected levels is a political and organizational problem not a technical problem- cooperation solves a good part of the problem
• 5-6% energy curtailment of wind• Solutions
– MISO is one area of about 100,000 MW– MISO has a 5 minute dispatch period
• Less error can occur if adjustments are made every 5 minutes than every hour
• Total wind output cannot change too much in 5 minutes
– Geographic diversity of wind and load
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Wind Diversity
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Calculated from data provided though the DOE Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study
Study System ELCC Scenarios (1 - 4)Existing & Overlay Transmission Tie Limits - ELCC (%) {Shaded Area shows Increased ELCC of Overlay}
27.7% 27.3%26.6%
25.4%
28.0% 28.1%
24.8%
27.0%
32.8%
29.8%
28.3%
24.1%
20.4%
22.7%
18.8%
16.0%
20.6%
26.4%
24.2%
20.2%
24.6%
30.5%
23.8%
19.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Scenario-1 System Scenario-2 System Scenario-3 System Scenario-4 System
2004 Profile 2005 Profile 2006 Profile
Existing
OverlayTie
MISO Wind Diversity
• Capacity credit in 2009 8%
• Capacity credit in 2011 12%
• Difference due to wind in Michigan, Indiana and Illinois in addition to Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota
• Adding more generation in an area with significant wind generation decreases the capacity credit as the probability of loss of a larger amount of generation is increased.
Transmission and Wind Diversity
• It may be possible to build HVDC transmission of about 1500 MW in capacity to exchange the diversity of wind
• Possibly paid for by– Reduction in generation capacity and fuel needed to manage
wind generation– Improvement in the capacity credit for wind that reduces the
need for other types of generation– Reduction in load on peak compared to the sum of two areas a
long distance apart– Savings in the operational cost of other generation due to cycling
that causes thermal stresses and increased maintenance
• HVDC could span the East-West ties and make wind more manageable in the west also
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Inputs
• Economic development costs- U of Illinois State– $650,000 per MW for wind for construction– $38,000/yr for maintenance
• HVDC line, terminal, ac substation costs
• CT Generation costs, O&M, heat rates
• Wind Generation costs
• EWITS Wind Diversity factors for variability and capacity credit
• Annual carrying charge 15%- annual values
• Discount factor-8%- used for present value
First Year Benefit/Cost Scenario
20.2 Wind Economic Value including Economic Development values
1.8 Without Wind Economic Development
3.1
Without Wind Economic Development but with carbon dioxide elimination credit supported by transmission
15.8 With transmission economic development.
Why Economic DevelopmentShould Be Includedin Analysis
Governors and legislatures have recognized the value of economic development for wind generation, but the regulation function has not used it. Projects could be justified and carbon dioxide production reduced if economic development were allowed.
Price and Quantity of Sources and Sinks Determine Transmission Requirements
West to East Interface Flows OH-PA
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 720 1440 2160 2880 3600 4320 5040 5760 6480 7200 7920 8640
Hour of the Year
MW
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Transmission Overlay Design WorkshopExample Interface Duration CurveInterface Flow
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1
245
489
733
977
1221
1465
1709
1953
2197
2441
2685
2929
3173
3417
3661
3905
4149
4393
4637
4881
5125
5369
5613
5857
6101
6345
6589
6833
7077
7321
7565
7809
8053
8297
8541
Hours
MW
Flo
w
WAPA-MINN
Transmission Capacity designed to deliver 80% of desired energy flow
30%20%StrongWest
20%Distributed
20%StrongOffshore
MostEconomical
+ RPS
What Can Be Done with the Surplus
• Reduce the generation– Paying for the generation but not fuel– Must have transmission to deliver renewable energy to the load. The
system was designed to deliver from the fuel generation that most likely in another location.
• Sell the surplus for a profit– Profit helps reduce the generation payments– Need to be able to deliver energy to the market- pay for transmission-need
above $6/MBTU to pay for transmission in the energy market, other products may allow justification of transmission with lower gas prices.
– Need access to the markets- need a seller and a buyer pair
• Store the energy– Use surplus off peak capacity to drive a CAES plant with a 50% capacity
factor- would work in the west today– Manitoba offers a way to “store” energy, need transmission in ND,SD
Questions
• Dale Osborn
• Principle Advisor
• Regulatory and Economic Studies
• Email: dosborn@misoenergy.org
• Phone:651-632-8471
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