Daily & seasonal gradients of linear fit (SM=bP+a i.e. result=LINFIT(SM,P) Model mean gradients, precip v soil moisture*, CMIP5 models, historical run

(1/1/1990-31/12/2005)

* Known as soil moisture, volumetric soil water layer 1, moisture in upper portion of soil column, moisture in upper 0.1m of soil column, depending on model

Colours show model mean gradientsStippling shows where all models agree on sign (+ve or -ve) of gradient

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

Colours show model mean gradientsStippling shows where 5 out of 11 models agree that gradients lie between the upper and lower

confidence intervals (sigma*3) from the GPCP precipitation – ERA SM gradients

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

Colours show model mean gradientsStippling shows where 5 out of 11 models agree that gradients lie between the upper and lower

confidence intervals (sigma*3) from the ERA precipitation – ERA SM gradients

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

Colours show model mean gradientsStipping shows where 8 out of 11 models agree that gradients > 1 mm/day per kg/m2

DJF

JJA SON

MAM