Post on 14-Mar-2018
CURRENT & FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF SARASOTA COUNTY, FL, TO HURRICANE STORM
SURGE & SEA LEVEL RISE
Dr. Tim Frazier, Penn State University –The University of Idaho
Dr. Brent Yarnal, Penn State University
Dr. Nathan Wood, U.S. Geological Survey
Introduction
Goal Develop a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework that integrates geospatial analysis and stakeholder input to facilitate enhanced community resilience through planning.
– Vulnerability assessment including SLR – Decision-support methodology incorporating scientific
understanding with value-based human dynamics– Inject SLR scenarios into long-range planning activities
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Prior Research
SLOSH Model = Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes Model
Wu et al. (2002) Kleinosky et al. (2007)
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Prior ResearchWood, Church, Frazier, & Yarnal (2007)
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Study Area
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 1 SLOSH
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 1 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 1 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 1 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 1 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 2 with SLOSH
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 2 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 2 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 2 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 2 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 3 with SLOSH
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 3 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 3 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 3 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 3 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 4-5 SLOSH
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 4-5 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 4-5 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 4-5 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 4-5 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
All Categories with SLR
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota
LaurelLongboat Key
NokomisNorth Port
North SarasotaOsprey
PlantationRidge Wood Heights
SarasotaSarasota Springs
Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice
SouthgateThe Meadows
VamoVenice
Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs
UnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent of Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 1
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota
LaurelLongboat Key
NokomisNorth Port
North SarasotaOsprey
PlantationRidge Wood Heights
SarasotaSarasota Springs
Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice
SouthgateThe Meadows
VamoVenice
Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs
UnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 2
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota
LaurelLongboat Key
NokomisNorth Port
North SarasotaOsprey
PlantationRidge Wood Heights
SarasotaSarasota Springs
Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice
SouthgateThe Meadows
VamoVenice
Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs
UnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 3
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota
LaurelLongboat Key
NokomisNorth Port
North SarasotaOsprey
PlantationRidge Wood Heights
SarasotaSarasota Springs
Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice
SouthgateThe Meadows
VamoVenice
Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs
UnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 4/5
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota
LaurelLongboat Key
NokomisNorth Port
North SarasotaOsprey
PlantationRidge Wood Heights
SarasotaSarasota Springs
Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice
SouthgateThe Meadows
VamoVenice
Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs
UnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Population Over 65 in Surge Zone‐ Category 3
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota
LaurelLongboat Key
NokomisNorth Port
North SarasotaOsprey
PlantationRidge Wood Heights
SarasotaSarasota Springs
Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice
SouthgateThe Meadows
VamoVenice
Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs
UnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Female Head of Households in Surge Zone‐ Category 3
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota
LaurelLongboat Key
NokomisNorth Port
North SarasotaOsprey
PlantationRidge Wood Heights
SarasotaSarasota Springs
Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice
SouthgateThe Meadows
VamoVenice
Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs
UnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 1
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota
LaurelLongboat Key
NokomisNorth Port
North SarasotaOsprey
PlantationRidge Wood Heights
SarasotaSarasota Springs
Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice
SouthgateThe Meadows
VamoVenice
Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs
UnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 2
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota
LaurelLongboat Key
NokomisNorth Port
North SarasotaOsprey
PlantationRidge Wood Heights
SarasotaSarasota Springs
Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice
SouthgateThe Meadows
VamoVenice
Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs
UnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 3
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota
LaurelLongboat Key
NokomisNorth Port
North SarasotaOsprey
PlantationRidge Wood Heights
SarasotaSarasota Springs
Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice
SouthgateThe Meadows
VamoVenice
Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs
UnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 4/5
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Sarasota County, Florida: Land Use 2050
Focus Groups
• 33 Participants
• Divided into subgroups– Business– Environmental– Planners– Facilities & infrastructure– Government officials
• Presentation of research
• Assign task
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
SLOSH Output: All Categories
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 3 With 30, 60, 90, 120, cm of SLR
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Results: Overall
• Location of development
• Location urban service boundary
• Infrastructure inside hazard zones
• Cost of shifting development
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Results: Business
• ID beach specific businesses
• Rebuilding with FEMA restrictions
• Moving critical & essential facilities
• Imposing mitigation restrictions
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Results: Environmental
• Mitigate SLR impacts on environmental areas
• Transfer development rights
• Develop land swaps
• Replenish wetlands for surge mitigation
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Results: Planners
• Increase density outside hazards zones
• Incentives to steer development
• Strategies to retreat from coast
• Limited by economic realities
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Results: Facilities & Infrastructure
• Mitigate now– Move dated
infrastructure– Ensure functional
flexibility– Revise existing
plan
• Plan better for future– Cautiously place
infrastructure in hazard zones
– Evacuation
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Results: Government Officials
• Evaluate placement of urban service boundary
• Mitigation need vs. cost of moving (facilities & infrastructure)
• Locate high density residential outside hazard zones
• Transportation add more N to S
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Conclusions
• Development constricted to hazards zones
• Specific adjustments– Relax urban service boundary– Steer development out of
hazards zones– Relocate/replace infrastructure– Explore evacuation alternatives
Urban growth boundaries in coastal communities could contribute to hurricane hazards exposure
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions