CURRENT & FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF SARASOTA COUNTY, FL, TO HURRICANE STORM

SURGE & SEA LEVEL RISE

Dr. Tim Frazier, Penn State University –The University of Idaho

Dr. Brent Yarnal, Penn State University

Dr. Nathan Wood, U.S. Geological Survey

Introduction

Goal Develop a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework that integrates geospatial analysis and stakeholder input to facilitate enhanced community resilience through planning.

– Vulnerability assessment including SLR – Decision-support methodology incorporating scientific

understanding with value-based human dynamics– Inject SLR scenarios into long-range planning activities

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Prior Research

SLOSH Model = Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes Model

Wu et al. (2002) Kleinosky et al. (2007)

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Prior ResearchWood, Church, Frazier, & Yarnal (2007)

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Study Area

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 SLOSH

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with SLOSH

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with SLOSH

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 SLOSH

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

All Categories with SLR

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota

LaurelLongboat Key

NokomisNorth Port

North SarasotaOsprey

PlantationRidge Wood Heights

SarasotaSarasota Springs

Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice

SouthgateThe Meadows

VamoVenice

Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs

UnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent of Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 1

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota

LaurelLongboat Key

NokomisNorth Port

North SarasotaOsprey

PlantationRidge Wood Heights

SarasotaSarasota Springs

Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice

SouthgateThe Meadows

VamoVenice

Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs

UnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 2

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota

LaurelLongboat Key

NokomisNorth Port

North SarasotaOsprey

PlantationRidge Wood Heights

SarasotaSarasota Springs

Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice

SouthgateThe Meadows

VamoVenice

Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs

UnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 3

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota

LaurelLongboat Key

NokomisNorth Port

North SarasotaOsprey

PlantationRidge Wood Heights

SarasotaSarasota Springs

Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice

SouthgateThe Meadows

VamoVenice

Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs

UnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 4/5

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota

LaurelLongboat Key

NokomisNorth Port

North SarasotaOsprey

PlantationRidge Wood Heights

SarasotaSarasota Springs

Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice

SouthgateThe Meadows

VamoVenice

Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs

UnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Population Over 65 in Surge Zone‐ Category 3

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota

LaurelLongboat Key

NokomisNorth Port

North SarasotaOsprey

PlantationRidge Wood Heights

SarasotaSarasota Springs

Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice

SouthgateThe Meadows

VamoVenice

Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs

UnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Female Head of Households in Surge Zone‐ Category 3

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota

LaurelLongboat Key

NokomisNorth Port

North SarasotaOsprey

PlantationRidge Wood Heights

SarasotaSarasota Springs

Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice

SouthgateThe Meadows

VamoVenice

Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs

UnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 1

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota

LaurelLongboat Key

NokomisNorth Port

North SarasotaOsprey

PlantationRidge Wood Heights

SarasotaSarasota Springs

Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice

SouthgateThe Meadows

VamoVenice

Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs

UnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 2

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota

LaurelLongboat Key

NokomisNorth Port

North SarasotaOsprey

PlantationRidge Wood Heights

SarasotaSarasota Springs

Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice

SouthgateThe Meadows

VamoVenice

Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs

UnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 3

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto LakesEnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington ParkLake Sarasota

LaurelLongboat Key

NokomisNorth Port

North SarasotaOsprey

PlantationRidge Wood Heights

SarasotaSarasota Springs

Siesta KeySouth Gate RidgeSouth SarasotaSouth Venice

SouthgateThe Meadows

VamoVenice

Venice GardensWarm Mineral Springs

UnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 4/5

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Sarasota County, Florida: Land Use 2050

Focus Groups

• 33 Participants

• Divided into subgroups– Business– Environmental– Planners– Facilities & infrastructure– Government officials

• Presentation of research

• Assign task

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

SLOSH Output: All Categories

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 With 30, 60, 90, 120, cm of SLR

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Results: Overall

• Location of development

• Location urban service boundary

• Infrastructure inside hazard zones

• Cost of shifting development

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Results: Business

• ID beach specific businesses

• Rebuilding with FEMA restrictions

• Moving critical & essential facilities

• Imposing mitigation restrictions

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Results: Environmental

• Mitigate SLR impacts on environmental areas

• Transfer development rights

• Develop land swaps

• Replenish wetlands for surge mitigation

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Results: Planners

• Increase density outside hazards zones

• Incentives to steer development

• Strategies to retreat from coast

• Limited by economic realities

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Results: Facilities & Infrastructure

• Mitigate now– Move dated

infrastructure– Ensure functional

flexibility– Revise existing

plan

• Plan better for future– Cautiously place

infrastructure in hazard zones

– Evacuation

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Results: Government Officials

• Evaluate placement of urban service boundary

• Mitigation need vs. cost of moving (facilities & infrastructure)

• Locate high density residential outside hazard zones

• Transportation add more N to S

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Conclusions

• Development constricted to hazards zones

• Specific adjustments– Relax urban service boundary– Steer development out of

hazards zones– Relocate/replace infrastructure– Explore evacuation alternatives

Urban growth boundaries in coastal communities could contribute to hurricane hazards exposure

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions