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ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ARE IN THE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX. FOR OTHER
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, PLEASE REFER TO https://firesearchdisclosure.credit-suisse.com.
China Commodity TradeReport Oct 2011 Update
Commodities Research
Coal imports remain robust; nickel imports
jump higherThe Chinese authorities release their monthly trade data in two stages. The
second tranche for the month of October was released today, including imports
for coal, LNG, nickel, zinc, lead, tin and various agricultural products. We
observe that:1
Total coal imports fell compared to September, but remained robust after
accounting for seasonality (Exhibit 1). 2011 year-to-October imports continue
to stay slightly above 2010 year-to-October imports; LNG imports increased further in October, following its trend growth pattern
since early 2008. Year-on-year YTD imports are 23.8% higher;
Imports of unwrought copper and alloys continued to strengthen even further,
confirming the large increase in imports of copper and copper products
reported earlier in the month;
Imports of unwrought nickel and alloys (Exhibit 2) rose to a new recent high
(since the surge in the summer of 2009);
Tin imports continued to rise higher despite the strong reading in September.
However, lead and zinc imports trended sideways;
In agriculture, corn imports reached a new high for the year (in non-
seasonality adjusted terms), while sugar imports remained close to the new
highs reached last month. Cotton imports continued to rise.
Exhibit 1: Chinese coal imports remain high Exhibit 2: Chinese nickel imports rise again
Millions of tonnes, seasonally adjusted Thousands of tonnes, seasonally adjusted
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Im ports Net Im ports
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Im ports
Source: CEIC, China General Customs Administration, Credit Suisse Source: CEIC, China General Customs Administration, Credit Suisse
1 All discussion refers to seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise stated.
21 November 2011
Fixed Income Research
http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics
Research Analysts
Ric Deverell
+44 20 7883 2523
ric.deverell@credit-suisse.com
Martin Yu
+ 44 20 7883 2150
martin.yu@credit-suisse.com
Joachim Azria
+1 212 325 4556
joachim.azria@credit-suisse.com
Tom Kendall
+44 20 7883 2432
tom.kendall@credit-suisse.com
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China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update 2
Exhibit 3: Summary of Trade FiguresUnits as indicated below
Coal Units Augus t September October August September Oc tober August September Oc tober 2011 2010 % di ff
Imports
Total Coal Million tons 16.5900 19.1200 15.6900 25.1% 24.8% 27.4% 15.9382 18.1809 17.4941 139.7000 135.0200 3.5%
Coking Coal Million tons 3.2843 3.8908 0.0000 -15.3% -6.6% 0.0% 3.1517 3.3642 0.0000 30.3807 33.5313 -9.4%
Thermal Coal Million tons 13.3032 15.2271 0.0000 41.7% 36.5% 0.0% 13.3800 13.9225 0.0000 93.6250 89.1679 5.0%Exports
Total Coal Million tons 1.2500 1.2100 0.7900 -26.5% -34.9% -34.7% 1.1805 1.0240 0.8117 12.9100 16.3000 -20.8%
Iron Ore and Steel Units Augus t September October August September Oc tober August September Oc tober 2011 2010 % di ff
Imports
Iron Ore and Concentra tes Mi ll ion tons 59.0900 60.5700 49.9400 32.5% 15.2% 9.2% 61.4740 56.9470 59.1372 558.6800 503.6200 10.9%
Steel Products Million tons 1.3500 1.3300 1.2000 0.0% 0.8% 5.3% 1.2981 1.2168 1.3103 13.1600 13.6500 -3.6%
Steel Scrap Million tons 0.5200 0.7000 0.5600 -1.9% 42.9% 115.4% 0.4893 0.6299 0.7892 5.3400 4.8400 10.3%
Exports
Iron Ore and Concentrates Mil lion tons 0.0008 0.0008 0.0003 -93.0% n/a -89.4% 0.0012 0.0012 0.0005 0.0040 0.0152 -73.6%
Steel Products Million tons 4.1900 4.2100 3.8200 49.6% 39.9% 33.6% 3.7796 3.6673 3.8118 40.9900 36.8000 11.4%
Energy Units Augus t September October August September Oc tober August September Oc tober 2011 2010 % di ff
Imports
Crude Oi l Petroleum Million tons 21.0400 20.4500 20.8000 0.7% -12.2% 26.9% 20.1760 19.3027 21.4662 207.9300 197.5300 5.3%
Refined Petroleum Products Million tons 3.4100 2.7700 2.9100 33.2% -1.1% 7.0% 3.6007 3.1450 3.8497 33.2100 29.4100 12.9%
Middle Distillates Milli on tons 0.7840 0.7188 0.0000 63.8% 27.3% 0.0% 0.7148 0.7280 0.0000 5.6594 4.7976 18.0%
Liquified Natural Gas Million tons 1.0500 1.1500 0.8500 5.0% 17.3% 2.4% 0.8611 0.8892 0.9376 9.4000 7.5900 23.8%
ExportsCrude Oil Petroleum Million tons 0.1200 0.3300 0.1100 -52.0% -15.4% -57.7% 0.1279 0.3493 0.0854 2.0700 2.2100 -6.3%
Refined Petroleum Products Million tons 2.1700 2.2400 1.5900 4.8% 7.2% -15.4% 2.0531 2.3212 1.7206 21.4100 22.9300 -6.6%
Middle Distillates Milli on tons 0.7859 0.6467 0.0000 -10.5% -27.0% 0.0% 0.7925 0.6787 0.0000 6.7025 8.6272 -22.3%
Scrap Units Augus t September October August September Oc tober August September Oc tober 2011 2010 % di ff
Imports
Metal Sc rap Metric tons 1,100,000 1,340,000 1,160,000 -7.6% 17.5% 50.6% 1,049,089 1,216,327 1 ,324,072 11,290,000 10,740,000 5.1%
Copper Scrap Metric tons 380,000 420,000 380,000 -5.0% 2.4% 22.6% 344,719 362,626 414,228 3,810,000 3,520,000 8.2%
Aluminum Scrap Metric tons 200,000 220,000 220,000 -23.1% -8.3% 15.8% 176,619 178,175 232,734 2,110,000 2,330,000 -9.4%
Base Metals Units Augus t September October August September Oc tober August September Oc tober 2011 2010 % di ff
Imports
Copper & Copper Products Metr ic tons 340,398 380,526 383,507 -10.3% 3.3% 40.2% 347,078 345,349 459,491 3,112,428 3,596,254 -13.5%
Copper & Al loys Metric tons 270,470 314,008 330,276 -10.8% 7.8% 59.7% 291,393 318,208 352,932 2,456,357 2,829,254 -13.2%
Copper ore & concentrates Metr ic tons 680,000 560,000 520,000 44.7% -17.6% 10.6% 714,779 496,524 604,055 5,170,000 5,430,000 -4.8%
Alumini um & Al Products Metric tons 70,983 66,163 60,186 -2.3% 0.6% -14.9% 67,309 68,348 67,745 728,054 796,036 -8.5%
Aluminium & Alloys Metric tons 22,463 20,161 17,707 0.8% 8.5% -30.7% 18,858 23,234 21,585 240,888 306,526 -21.4%
Nickel & Alloys Metric tons 16,902 19,698 24,616 -7.3% 24.7% 29.3% 18,111 18,466 23,611 179,519 155,046 15.8%
Zinc & Alloys Metric tons 39,766 42,881 39,492 -20.2% 3.0% 21.3% 40,278 40,216 46,817 392,770 393,023 -0.1%Lead & Alloys Metric tons 3,679 5,074 4,592 -49.0% -32.6% 6.2% 4,506 5,083 6,036 42,352 49,604 -14.6%
Tin & Alloys Metric tons 1,605 3,791 4,122 -6.8% 157.2% 429.8% 1,751 3,256 4,693 15,909 16,496 -3.6%
Exports
Copper & Copper Products Metric tons 41,800 40,612 34,992 4.8% -5.6% -4.2% 38,373 39,179 36,914 575,151 452,912 27.0%
Copper & Alloys Metric tons 469 2,608 342 -18.6% -13.1% -78.3% 613 2,781 381 154,324 25,721 500.0%
Aluminium & Products Metr ic tons 340,000 290,000 290,000 25.9% 31.8% 16.0% 315,389 279,031 284,474 3,180,000 2,380,000 33.6%
Aluminium & Alloys Metric tons 62,227 60,715 64,650 6.1% 10.2% -6.3% 58,121 57,637 63,185 618,286 601,877 2.7%
Nickel & Alloys Metric tons 2,758 2,335 2,977 -17.6% -63.5% -35.1% 2,426 2,608 2,475 31,248 48,641 -35.8%
Zinc & Alloys Metric tons 3,800 3,443 2,406 643.6% 223.9% 153.3% 3,783 4,459 2,554 47,238 36,885 28.1%
Lead & Alloys Metric tons 616 83 504 -66.6% -95.8% -84.6% 1,107 102 468 11,813 21,269 -44.5%
Tin & Alloys Metric tons 1 3 0.0% -97.5% n/a 0.0% 0 2 0.0% 977 108 804.6%
Agriculture Units Augus t September October August September Oc tober August September Oc tober 2011 2010 % di ff
Imports
Corn Thousand tons 244.55 181.22 304.41 -43.4% -64.7% 20.8% 191.41 116.97 152.33 938.93 1,479.36 -36.5%
Wheat Thousand tons 128.66 177.66 60.65 42.6% 94.5% 395.6% 95.76 126.69 103.31 1,030.98 1,216.77 -15.3%
Soybean Thousand tons 4,510.00 4,130.00 3,810.00 -5.5% -11.0% 2.1% 4,249.05 4,897.73 4,791.65 41,510.00 4 3,890.00 -5.4%
Rice Thousand tons 58.41 26.95 18.24 290.1% 10.3% 109.8% 122.71 30.42 27.46 521.17 253.22 105.8%
Sugar Thousand tons 420.00 470.00 340.00 40.0% 34.3% 36.0% 341.93 379.80 330.75 2,010.00 1,620.00 24.1%
Cotton Thousand tons 210.00 250.00 250.00 -12.5% 25.0% 150.0% 192.78 312.94 414.15 2,190.00 2,250.00 -2.7%
Exports
Corn Thousand tons 13.29 10.20 41.42 46.8% 77.0% 757.6% 10.31 25.08 62.08 132.11 112.24 17.7%
Wheat Thousand tons 30.77 39.46 41.79 114.1% 40.4% 31.7% 28.84 23.85 40.03 267.05 205.32 30.1%
Soybean Thousand tons 10.00 10.00 10.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.26 19.87 22.00 170.00 150.00 13.3%
Rice Thousand tons 21.13 27.62 36.74 8.4% -15.7% -29.5% 35.50 38.39 33.18 347.12 505.23 -31.3%
Sugar Thousand tons 3.86 4.02 3.04 -18.5% -16.3% -50.9% 3.92 4.47 3.85 51.11 77.83 -34.3%
Cotton Thousand tons 1.10 0.46 0.00 4.3% -63.2% 0.0% 0.68 0.50 0.00 25.45 6.11 316.4%
Seasonally adjustedRaw Figures Year on Year Change Year to date*
*Year to date figures equate months with latest data to make both years comparable, based on raw figures.Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
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Coal
Total Coal (millions of tonnes) Total Coal (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Coking Coal (millions of tonnes) Coking Coal (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: GTIS Source: GTIS, Credit Suisse
Thermal Coal (millions of tonnes) Thermal Coal (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: GTIS Source: GTIS, Credit Suisse
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Imports
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Imports
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Imports
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Imports
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Iron Ore and Steel
ron Ore and Concentrates (millions of tonnes) Iron Ore and Concentrates (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Steel Products (millions of tonnes) Steel Products (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Ferrous Waste & Scrap (millions of tonnes) Ferrous Waste & Scrap (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
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Crude and Refined Petroleum
Crude Oil Petroleum (millions of tonnes) Crude Oil Petroleum (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Refined Petroleum Products (millions of tonnes) Refined Petroleum Products (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Crude Oil Petroleum (millions of tonnes) Net Imports Refined Petroleum Products (millions of tonnes) Net Imports
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
J F M A M J J A S O N
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Middle Distillates and LNG
Middle Distillates (millions of tonnes) Middle Distillates (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Liquefied Natural Gas (millions of tonnes) Liquefied Natural Gas (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ou rc e: C EIC , C hi na C us to ms G en er al A dmi ni st ra ti on , C re di t Su is se So ur ce : C EIC , C hi na C us to ms G en er al A dmi ni str at io n, C re di t S ui ss e
Middle Distillates (millions of tonnes) Net Imports Liquefied Natural Gas (millions of tonnes) Net Imports
ou rc e: C EIC , C hi na C us to ms G en er al A dmi ni st ra ti on , C re di t Su is se So ur ce : C EIC , C hi na C us to ms G en er al A dmi ni str at io n, C re di t S ui ss e
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
J F M A M J J A S O N
2008 2009 2010 2011
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Scrap
Total Metal Scrap (metric tonnes) Total Metal Scrap (metric tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Copper Scrap (metric tonnes) Copper Scrap (metric tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Aluminum Scrap (metric tonnes) Aluminum Scrap (metric tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
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Copper
Copper & Copper Products (metric tons) Copper & Copper Products (metric tons) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Unwrought Copper & Alloys (metric tons) Unwrought Copper & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Copper Ores & Concentrates (metric tons) Copper Ores & Concentrates (metric tons) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports
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Aluminium and Nickel
Unwrought Aluminium & Aluminium Products (metric tons) Unwrought Aluminium & Aluminium Products (metric tons) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Unwrought Aluminium & Alloys (metric tons) Unwrought Aluminium & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Unwrought Nickel & Alloys (metric tons) Unwrought Nickel & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted
ource: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administ ration Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administ ration, Credi t Suisse
-340,000
-240,000
-140,000
-40,000
60,000
160,000
260,000
360,000
460,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-340,000
-240,000
-140,000
-40,000
60,000
160,000
260,000
360,000
460,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-150,000
-50,000
50,000
150,000
250,000
350,000
450,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-150,000
-50,000
50,000
150,000
250,000
350,000
450,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
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Zinc, Lead and Tin
Unwrought Zinc & Alloys (metric tons) Unwrought Zinc & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted
ource: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administ ration Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administ ration, Credi t Suisse
Unwrought Lead & Alloys (metric tons) Unwrought Lead & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted
ource: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administ ration Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administ ration, Credi t Suisse
Unwrought Tin & Alloys (metric tons) Unwrought Tin & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted
ource: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administ ration Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administ ration, Credi t Suisse
-50,000
-10,000
30,000
70,000
110,000
150,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-50,000
-30,000
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-50,000
-10,000
30,000
70,000
110,000
150,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-50,000
-30,000
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
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Corn, Wheat and Soybeans
Corn (thousands of tonnes) Corn (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Wheat (thousands of tonnes) Wheat (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administ ration Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administ ration, Credi t Suisse
Soybean (thousands of tonnes) Soybean (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
-1,200
-700
-200
300
800
1,300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-1,200
-700
-200
300
800
1,300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
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21 Novembe
China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update 1
China Commodity Trade ReportCommodities Res
Rice, Sugar and Cotton
Rice (thousands of tonnes) Rice (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Sugar (thousands of tonnes) Sugar (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
Cotton (thousands of tonnes) Cotton (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted
ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports Imports Net Imports
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21 Novembe
China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update 1
China Commodity Trade ReportCommodities Res
Chinese Net Imports (Exports) as Percentage of Global Imports 2010*
Crude Oil Petroleum Products Iron and Steel (SITC 67)
ource: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BP Statistics, UNCTAD, Credit Suisse
ron ore and concentrates Coal Copper
ource: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, UNCTAD, Credit Suisse
Aluminum Soybeans Cotton
ource: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, UNCTAD, USDA, Credit Suisse
Red pie charts indicate net imports, blue pie charts indicate net exports
China
12%
Rest of
World
88%
China
4%
Rest of
World
96%
China
3%
Rest of
World
97%
China
63%
Rest of
World
37%
China
12%
Rest of
World
88%
China
22%
Rest of
World
78%
China
5%
Rest of
World
95%
China
58%
Rest of
World
42%
China
31%
Rest of
World
69%
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China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update 1
China Commodity Trade ReportCommodities Res
Chinese Imports as Percentage of Global Imports
Crude Oil, Oil Products, Natural Gas and Coal Copper, Aluminum and Lead
ource: t he B LOOM BE RG P ROFE SS IONA L servi ce , B P S ta ti st ical Y earbook, UNCTA D, Credi t S ui sse Source : UNCTA D, Credi t S ui sse
Nickel, Zinc and Tin Iron Ore & Concentrates, Iron & Steel
ource: UNCTAD, Credit Suisse Source: UNCTAD, Credit Suisse
Soybean, Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal Sugar, Corn, Wheat and Cotton
ou rc e: t he B LO OMBE RG PR OF ESS IO NAL s er vi ce , U SD A, C re di t S ui ss e So ur ce : th e B LO OMBE RG P RO FESS ION AL s er vi ce , U SD A, C re di t Su is se
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Crude Oil Oil Products Natural Gas Coal
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Copper Aluminum Lead
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Nickel Zinc Tin
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Iron Ore & Concentrates Iron & Steel
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Soybean Soybean Oil Soybean Meal
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Sugar Corn Wheat Cotton
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GLOBAL COMMODITIES RESEARCH
Ric Deverell, Director
Global Head of Commodities Research
+44 20 7883 2523
ric.deverell@credit-suisse.comEric Miller, Managing Director
Global Head of Fixed Income and Economic Research
+1 212 538 6480
eric.miller.3@credit-suisse.com
LONDON One Cabot Square, London E14 4QJ, United Kingdom
Tom Kendall, Vice President
+44 20 7883 2432tom.kendall@credit-suisse.com
Marcus Garvey, Analyst
+44 20 7883 4787marcus.garvey@credit-suisse.com
Martin Yu, Analyst
+44 20 7883 2150martin.yu@credit-suisse.com
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Cilline Bain, Associate
+44 20 7888 7174cilline.bain@credit-suisse.com
NEW YORK 11 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010
Jan Stuart, Managing Director
Head of Energy
+1 212 325 1013jan.stuart@credit-suisse.com
Joachim Azria, Associate
+1 212 325 4556joachim.azria@credit-suisse.com
Stefan Revielle, Associate
+1 212 538 6802stefan.revielle@credit-suisse.com
SINGAPORE One Raffles Link, Singapore 039393
Andrew Shaw, Director
+65 6212 4244
andrew.shaw@credit-suisse.com
Ivan Szpakowski, Associate
+65 6212 3534
ivan.szpakowski@credit-suisse.com
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Disclosure Appendix
Analyst CertificationRic Deverell, Martin Yu, Joachim Azria and Tom Kendall each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that he or she analyzes, that (1) the viewsexpressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or hercompensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Important DisclosuresCredit Suisse's policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. For more detail, please refer toCredit Suisse's Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in connection with Investment Research: http://www.csfb.com/research-and-analytics/disclaimer/managing_conflicts_disclaimer.htmlCredit Suisses policy is to publish research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject issuer, the sector or the market thatmay have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein.The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including Credit Suisse's totalrevenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's Investment Banking and Fixed Income Divisions.Credit Suisse may trade as principal in the securities or derivatives of the issuers that are the subject of this report.At any point in time, Credit Suisse is likely to have significant holdings in the securities mentioned in this report.As at the date of this report, Credit Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the debt securities of the subject issuer(s) mentioned in this report.For important disclosure information on securities recommended in this report, please visit the website at https://firesearchdisclosure.credit-suisse.comor call +1-212-538-7625.For the history of any relative value trade ideas suggested by the Fixed Income research department as well as fundamental recommendations provided bythe Emerging Markets Sovereign Strategy Group over the previous 12 months, please view the document at http://research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docpopup.asp?ctbdocid=330703_1_en . Credit Suisse clients with access to the Locus website may refer to http://www.credit-
suisse.com/locus .For the history of recommendations provided by Technical Analysis, please visit the website at http://www.credit-suisse.com/techanalysis.Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used,by any taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties.
Emerging Markets Bond Recommendation DefinitionsBuy: Indicates a recommended buy on our expectation that the issue will deliver a return higher than the risk-free rate.Sell: Indicates a recommended sell on our expectation that the issue will deliver a return lower than the risk-free rate.
Corporate Bond Fundamental Recommendation DefinitionsBuy: Indicates a recommended buy on our expectation that the issue will be a top performer in its sector.Outperform: Indicates an above-average total return performer within its sector. Bonds in this category have stable or improving credit profiles and areundervalued, or they may be weaker credits that, we believe, are cheap relative to the sector and are expected to outperform on a total-return basis. Thesebonds may possess price risk in a volatile environment.Market Perform: Indicates a bond that is expected to return average performance in its sector.Underperform: Indicates a below-average total-return performer within its sector. Bonds in this category have weak or worsening credit trends, or they may
be stable credits that, we believe, are overvalued or rich relative to the sector.Sell: Indicates a recommended sell on the expectation that the issue will be among the poor performers in its sector.Restricted: In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including aninvestment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances.Not Rated: Credit Suisse Global Credit Research or Global Leveraged Finance Research covers the issuer but currently does not offer an investment viewon the subject issue.Not Covered: Neither Credit Suisse Global Credit Research nor Global Leveraged Finance Research covers the issuer or offers an investment view on theissuer or any securities related to it. Any communication from Research on securities or companies that Credit Suisse does not cover is factual or areasonable, non-material deduction based on an analysis of publicly available information.
Corporate Bond Risk Category DefinitionsIn addition to the recommendation, each issue may have a risk category indicating that it is an appropriate holding for an "average" high yield investor,designated as Market, or that it has a higher or lower risk profile, designated as Speculative and Conservative, respectively.
Credit Suisse Credit Rating Definitions
Credit Suisse may assign rating opinions to investment-grade and crossover issuers. Ratings are based on our assessment of a company's creditworthinessand are not recommendations to buy or sell a security. The ratings scale (AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B) is dependent on our assessment of an issuer's ability tomeet its financial commitments in a timely manner. Within each category, creditworthiness is further detailed with a scale of High, Mid, or Low with Highbeing the strongest sub-category rating: High AAA, Mid AAA, Low AAA obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitments is extremely strong; HighAA, Mid AA, Low AA obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitments is very strong; High A, Mid A, Low A obligor's capacity to meet its financialcommitments is strong; High BBB, Mid BBB, Low BBB obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitments is adequate, but adverseeconomic/operating/financial circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity to meet its obligations; High BB, Mid BB, Low BB obligationshave speculative characteristics and are subject to substantial credit risk; High B, Mid B, Low B obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitments isvery weak and highly vulnerable to adverse economic, operating, and financial circumstances; HighCCC, Mid CCC, Low CCC obligor's capacity to meetits financial commitments is extremely weak and is dependent on favorable economic, operating, and financial circumstances. Credit Suisse's rating opinionsdo not necessarily correlate with those of the rating agencies.
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