Post on 18-Feb-2016
description
Water Year 2012: Review of hydrologic Conditions that
impacted forecasts in the Colorado River Basin
CRFS November 14, 2012
Water Year 2012:Entering the Season (what did we know in the fall):
Coming off major runoff year - Soil Moisture (not bad) - Baseflow (not bad)La Nina Conditions (no help)
The Winter:Reasonable, up until March
The Spring:Disastrous…
CBRFC Model Soil Moisture11/1/11
USGS Monthly Average StreamflowOctober 2011(includes regulated flows)
Were Entering 2nd year of La Nina conditions
Sources: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO
CPC Precipitation Outlooks Nov 17,2011
CPC Climate Forecast December 15, 2011
CPC Climate Forecast February 16, 2012
In March things begin to go horribly wrong
April, May, and June were extremely dry. Over many basins, these three months combined were among the driest AMJs on record.
April 2012 Precip anomalies
May 2012 Precip anomalies June 2012 Precip anomalies
March 2012 Precip anomalies
The DRY !!
Source: www.prism.oregonstate.edu
The Heat !!
Snowpack Decimation – well under way
Snowpack essentially gone except for the Wind River Range
USGS Monthly Average Streamflow(includes regulated flows)
March 2012 May 2012