Efficient Inference for Fully-Connected CRFs with Stationarity
CRFS November 14, 2012
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Transcript of CRFS November 14, 2012
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Water Year 2012: Review of hydrologic Conditions that
impacted forecasts in the Colorado River Basin
CRFS November 14, 2012
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Water Year 2012:Entering the Season (what did we know in the fall):
Coming off major runoff year - Soil Moisture (not bad) - Baseflow (not bad)La Nina Conditions (no help)
The Winter:Reasonable, up until March
The Spring:Disastrous…
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CBRFC Model Soil Moisture11/1/11
USGS Monthly Average StreamflowOctober 2011(includes regulated flows)
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Were Entering 2nd year of La Nina conditions
Sources: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO
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CPC Precipitation Outlooks Nov 17,2011
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CPC Climate Forecast December 15, 2011
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CPC Climate Forecast February 16, 2012
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In March things begin to go horribly wrong
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April, May, and June were extremely dry. Over many basins, these three months combined were among the driest AMJs on record.
April 2012 Precip anomalies
May 2012 Precip anomalies June 2012 Precip anomalies
March 2012 Precip anomalies
The DRY !!
Source: www.prism.oregonstate.edu
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The Heat !!
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Snowpack Decimation – well under way
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Snowpack essentially gone except for the Wind River Range
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USGS Monthly Average Streamflow(includes regulated flows)
March 2012 May 2012