Post on 04-Jan-2016
description
Corn Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2006
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mill
ion
bu
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mill
ion
bu
$1.50
$1.70
$1.90
$2.10
$2.30
$2.50
$2.70
$2.90
$3.10
$3.30
$3.50
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2006
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mil
lio
n b
ush
els
Foreign Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 2114 2114 2114
Acres (M. P. A.) 81.7 81.8 81.9
Supply(M. Bu) 13210 13236 13252
Use:
Feed 6000
Food, Seed 2985
Exports 1850
Ending Stocks 2158 2401 2644
Projected Price $1.90 $1.75 $1.60
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 2401 2401 2401Acres (M. P. A.) 79.6 80.6 81.6Yield 127 145 160Supply(M. Bu) 11575 13011 14247 Use:
Feed 6000 Food, Seed 3035 Exports 1900
Ending Stocks 640 2076 3312Projected Price $3.25 $1.80 $1.40
Wheat Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Wheat Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2006
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Wheat Ending Stocks, 1996-2006
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mil
lio
n b
ush
els
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 540 540 540
Acres (M. A. Planted) 57.1 57.2 57.3
Supply(M. Bu) 2721 2730 2734
Use:
Food, Seed 988
Feed, Resid 200
Exports 1000
Ending Stocks 503 542 581
Projected Price $3.55 $3.40 $3.25
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 542 542 542Acres (M. A. Planted) 56.1 57.1 58.1Yield 35 42 44Supply(M. Bu) 2341 2725 2860 Use:
Food, Seed 988 Feed, Resid 200 Exports 1000
Ending Stocks 300 537 672Projected Price $4.50 $3.40 $3.00
Soybean Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Soybean Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2006
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Ending Stocks, 1996-2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mil
lio
n B
ush
els
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Meal Ending Stocks, 1997-2006
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Oil Ending Stocks, 1997-2006
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 256 256 256
Acres (M. P. A.) 72.0 72.1 72.2
Supply(M. Bu) 3319 3346 3384
Use:
Crushing 1720
Exports 910
Seed, Feed 161
Ending Stocks 431 555 680
Projected Price $5.80 $5.50 $5.20
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 555 555 555Acres (M. P. A.) 72.2 73.2 74.2Yield 34 40 42Supply(M. Bu) 2950 3450 3637 Use:
Crushing 1700 Exports 1000 Seed, Feed 160
Ending Stocks 155 590 700Projected Price $7.00 $4.75 $4.25
Grain Sorghum Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Sorghum Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1996-2006
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks and Price, 1996-2006
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006Sorghum ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 57.0 57.0 57.0
Acres (M. P. A.) 6.4 6.5 6.6
Supply(M. Bu) 440 451 455
Use:
Food & Seed 55
Exports 170
Feed 150
Ending Stocks 53 76 99
Projected Price $1.85 $1.70 $1.55
Cotton Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Cotton Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2006
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Th
ou
sa
nd
Ba
les
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Production Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)
U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2006
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Th
ou
sa
nd
Ba
les
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)
U.S. & Foreign Cotton Ending Stocks, 1997-2006
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Th
ou
san
d B
ales
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 5.5 5.5 5.5
Acres (M. P. A.) 14.18 14.20 14.22
Supply(MB) 29.1 29.3 29.5
Use:
Domestic 5.9
Exports 16.4
Ending Stocks 6.0 7.0 8.0
Projected Price
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 7.0 7.0 7.0
Acres (M. P. A.) 13.7 14.2 14.7
Yield 607 750 850
Supply(MB) 22.4 26.8 30.2
Use:
Domestic 6.0
Exports 16.4
Ending Stocks 2.6 4.4 7.8
Projected Price/cwt $70 $60 $50
What Could Change The Outlook?
South America Plant Mix Non-Farm Economic Conditions in U.S.,
World – Oil Supplies, War Exchange Rates China Weather