Post on 12-Jan-2016
Commercial Sector Update
Conservation Resources Advisory Committee
July 24, 2002
CRAC July 24, 2002 2
Three Things Today
• Autopsy of 1995 Commercial Forecast
• Scale Code and Standard Adjustments
• Commercial Building Stock Assessment– (The art previously known as son of
PNNonRES)
CRAC July 24, 2002 3
THING 1: Autopsy of the 1995 Forecast
• Morlan’s new draft is based on growth rates from 1995 commercial forecast
• 1995 forecast has declining kWh/emp
• Historical data shows flat kWh/emp
• Need to reconcile: Size of conservation potential linked to forecast loads– Two-thirds of potential in New/Renovation
CRAC July 24, 2002 4
Commercial Employment and Electricty Use
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
MW
a &
1000
Em
p
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
1.5
MW
a/10
00 E
mp
ThousandEmp
MWaWeatherAdjusted
MWa per1000 Emp
Historical
CRAC July 24, 2002 5
Forecast
Forecast MWa & Employment
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
7000.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
MW
a &
100
0 E
mpl
oyee
s
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
MW
a pe
r 10
00 E
mpl
oyee
s
Employment;Non MFEminus Agricminus MiningMWa 95D2MForecast
MWa RevisedForecast 05-2002
MWa per KEmployees 95Forecast
MWa per KEmployeesNew Forecast
CRAC July 24, 2002 6
No major shifts in bldg type 1995 -2015
Comparison of Shares of Floorspace and Electricity Use
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
OFF REST RET GROC WH EL/SEC COLL HEALTH HOT/MOT MISC
1995 Floorspace
1995 Electricity Use
2015 Floorspace
2015 Electricity Use
CRAC July 24, 2002 7
Significant changes in electric share for some end uses
% Share of End Use Served by Electricity (95d2mp, all bldg types)
0102030405060708090
100
HEAT
COOL
VENT
WATR
COOK
REFR
CRAC July 24, 2002 8
Space Heating a Key Driver
SPACE HEAT AS % SHARE OF SECTOR TOTAL ELECTRICITY
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
1979 1985 1995 2002 2015
% o
f to
tal
sect
or
CRAC July 24, 2002 9
Early 1990s turning point for heating
Space Heat and Lighting Use/Gross Square Foot in Commercial Sector
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Year
kWh
/sf
SH
LT
CRAC July 24, 2002 10
But, intensity of electric heating is relatively constant
Space Heat and Lighting Use/Served Square Foot in Commercial Sector
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Year
kW
h/s
f
SH
LT
CRAC July 24, 2002 11
Autopsy Hypothesis
• Might have been the fuel choice logic
• Fuel choice logic driven by relative cost, both capital and fuel, of end-use systems
• So test sensitivity to fuel cost
CRAC July 24, 2002 12
Test: Increase relative gas and oil cost
Commercial Electricity Use
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year
kW
h/s
qu
are
fo
ot
95d2mp
NG&O+20%
NG&O-20%
CRAC July 24, 2002 13
Space heating choice is sensitive to price
Sensitivity of 95d2mp to NG & Oil Prices (+20% from 1998)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1979 1989 1999 2009
Year
% o
f F
S S
erve
d b
y E
lec
SH
NG&Oil +20%
95d2mp
CRAC July 24, 2002 14
Modest difference in total use500 MWa in 18 years AAGR 1.66% versus 1.18%
Total Elec Use Commercial Sector
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
aM
W 95d2mp'
G&O+20%
CRAC July 24, 2002 15
Next Steps
• CRAC Reaction
• Take to Demand Forecast Advisory
• Review Survey Data for fuel trends– Elec SH unchanged 1988-1994 (52%), but
Oil & Other switched to Gas in one survey
• Review fuel price forecasts
• Review FW Dodge data on new floor additions
CRAC July 24, 2002 16
THING 2: Scale the impact of Code and Standard Changes (PRELIMINARY DRAFT)
• Back-of-envelope estimates in 2015– Idaho: 3 - 5 MWa– Washington: 15 – 20 MWa– Seattle: 5 – 7 MWa– Federal Ballast Standard: 15 MWa
• Total 38 – 47 MWa • 2015 Commercial load: 5780 MWa• 2015 New/Ren potential in 1995 plan:
– About 310 MWa at 30 mills/kWh
CRAC July 24, 2002 17
Idaho
• Prototype analysis by Mike Kennedy
• Used Alliance New Building Survey for baseline data on “as built”
• Calculated kWh/sf reductions by end use & building type
• Applied to Idaho share of new floor space & regional fuel shares
CRAC July 24, 2002 18
Idaho: Major impact of new code (kWh/sf)
HVAC Auxiliary About -8%, all Types
Electric Space Heat About -10% Large Office & Small Retail
Cooling About -20% Retail
About -20% Grocery
About -3% Offices
Lighting About -3% Retail
CRAC July 24, 2002 19
Washington
• Estimated load of new buildings 2002-2015• Estimated share in WA and Seattle by
building type from 1995 forecast & census• Estimated -4% over practice from WA code
upgrade• Estimated -10% over practice from Seattle
code upgrades
CRAC July 24, 2002 20
Federal Ballast Standard
• Based on regional share of annual US markets (30 million fixtures plus 6 million ballast replacements)
• 36 kWh per ballast per year savings adjusted for current US share of electronic ballasts
• Fixture replacement savings discounted to 20% due to local codes and standards
• Tier 1 (fixtures)= 10 MWa, Tier 2 = 5 MWa
CRAC July 24, 2002 21
THING 3: Commercial Building Stock Assessment (Son of PNNonRES)
• Selected Xenergy as contractor
• Kick-Off meeting last week
• First Issue is sample frame– Need 75% response rate to get a decent
sample from revisit of PNNonRES– Considering Dun & Bradstreet Sample
frame instead of PNNonRES