Commercial Sector Update

Conservation Resources Advisory Committee

July 24, 2002

CRAC July 24, 2002 2

Three Things Today

• Autopsy of 1995 Commercial Forecast

• Scale Code and Standard Adjustments

• Commercial Building Stock Assessment– (The art previously known as son of

PNNonRES)

CRAC July 24, 2002 3

THING 1: Autopsy of the 1995 Forecast

• Morlan’s new draft is based on growth rates from 1995 commercial forecast

• 1995 forecast has declining kWh/emp

• Historical data shows flat kWh/emp

• Need to reconcile: Size of conservation potential linked to forecast loads– Two-thirds of potential in New/Renovation

CRAC July 24, 2002 4

Commercial Employment and Electricty Use

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Year

MW

a &

1000

Em

p

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

MW

a/10

00 E

mp

ThousandEmp

MWaWeatherAdjusted

MWa per1000 Emp

Historical

CRAC July 24, 2002 5

Forecast

Forecast MWa & Employment

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

6000.0

7000.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

MW

a &

100

0 E

mpl

oyee

s

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

MW

a pe

r 10

00 E

mpl

oyee

s

Employment;Non MFEminus Agricminus MiningMWa 95D2MForecast

MWa RevisedForecast 05-2002

MWa per KEmployees 95Forecast

MWa per KEmployeesNew Forecast

CRAC July 24, 2002 6

No major shifts in bldg type 1995 -2015

Comparison of Shares of Floorspace and Electricity Use

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

OFF REST RET GROC WH EL/SEC COLL HEALTH HOT/MOT MISC

1995 Floorspace

1995 Electricity Use

2015 Floorspace

2015 Electricity Use

CRAC July 24, 2002 7

Significant changes in electric share for some end uses

% Share of End Use Served by Electricity (95d2mp, all bldg types)

0102030405060708090

100

HEAT

COOL

VENT

WATR

COOK

REFR

CRAC July 24, 2002 8

Space Heating a Key Driver

SPACE HEAT AS % SHARE OF SECTOR TOTAL ELECTRICITY

22.0

23.0

24.0

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

1979 1985 1995 2002 2015

% o

f to

tal

sect

or

CRAC July 24, 2002 9

Early 1990s turning point for heating

Space Heat and Lighting Use/Gross Square Foot in Commercial Sector

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Year

kWh

/sf

SH

LT

CRAC July 24, 2002 10

But, intensity of electric heating is relatively constant

Space Heat and Lighting Use/Served Square Foot in Commercial Sector

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Year

kW

h/s

f

SH

LT

CRAC July 24, 2002 11

Autopsy Hypothesis

• Might have been the fuel choice logic

• Fuel choice logic driven by relative cost, both capital and fuel, of end-use systems

• So test sensitivity to fuel cost

CRAC July 24, 2002 12

Test: Increase relative gas and oil cost

Commercial Electricity Use

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

kW

h/s

qu

are

fo

ot

95d2mp

NG&O+20%

NG&O-20%

CRAC July 24, 2002 13

Space heating choice is sensitive to price

Sensitivity of 95d2mp to NG & Oil Prices (+20% from 1998)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1979 1989 1999 2009

Year

% o

f F

S S

erve

d b

y E

lec

SH

NG&Oil +20%

95d2mp

CRAC July 24, 2002 14

Modest difference in total use500 MWa in 18 years AAGR 1.66% versus 1.18%

Total Elec Use Commercial Sector

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Year

aM

W 95d2mp'

G&O+20%

CRAC July 24, 2002 15

Next Steps

• CRAC Reaction

• Take to Demand Forecast Advisory

• Review Survey Data for fuel trends– Elec SH unchanged 1988-1994 (52%), but

Oil & Other switched to Gas in one survey

• Review fuel price forecasts

• Review FW Dodge data on new floor additions

CRAC July 24, 2002 16

THING 2: Scale the impact of Code and Standard Changes (PRELIMINARY DRAFT)

• Back-of-envelope estimates in 2015– Idaho: 3 - 5 MWa– Washington: 15 – 20 MWa– Seattle: 5 – 7 MWa– Federal Ballast Standard: 15 MWa

• Total 38 – 47 MWa • 2015 Commercial load: 5780 MWa• 2015 New/Ren potential in 1995 plan:

– About 310 MWa at 30 mills/kWh

CRAC July 24, 2002 17

Idaho

• Prototype analysis by Mike Kennedy

• Used Alliance New Building Survey for baseline data on “as built”

• Calculated kWh/sf reductions by end use & building type

• Applied to Idaho share of new floor space & regional fuel shares

CRAC July 24, 2002 18

Idaho: Major impact of new code (kWh/sf)

HVAC Auxiliary About -8%, all Types

Electric Space Heat About -10% Large Office & Small Retail

Cooling About -20% Retail

About -20% Grocery

About -3% Offices

Lighting About -3% Retail

CRAC July 24, 2002 19

Washington

• Estimated load of new buildings 2002-2015• Estimated share in WA and Seattle by

building type from 1995 forecast & census• Estimated -4% over practice from WA code

upgrade• Estimated -10% over practice from Seattle

code upgrades

CRAC July 24, 2002 20

Federal Ballast Standard

• Based on regional share of annual US markets (30 million fixtures plus 6 million ballast replacements)

• 36 kWh per ballast per year savings adjusted for current US share of electronic ballasts

• Fixture replacement savings discounted to 20% due to local codes and standards

• Tier 1 (fixtures)= 10 MWa, Tier 2 = 5 MWa

CRAC July 24, 2002 21

THING 3: Commercial Building Stock Assessment (Son of PNNonRES)

• Selected Xenergy as contractor

• Kick-Off meeting last week

• First Issue is sample frame– Need 75% response rate to get a decent

sample from revisit of PNNonRES– Considering Dun & Bradstreet Sample

frame instead of PNNonRES