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Small, smart, manyversus

few and bespoke Dr. T. X. Hammes

Institute for National Strategic StudiesNational Defense University

America according to the World

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Even biggeridiots

Subject of talk

Tasked to with what West will use But drones are also the threat High end to super empowered small

groups and individuals

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Emerging ThreatsSLIDE 5Air and sea defenseCyber and space SLDIE 6 - Small smart and many – vs few and exquisite Can they defeat us by attacking bases, ships, supplies, individual vehiclesDriven by technology convergence

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Situation todayExtremely rapid technological change Many related fields Materials science Energetics Robotics Artificial Intelligence 3d Printing

Unprecedented?

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1914-1939

MetallurgyPower systems – Steam turbines Internal combustion engines

Electronics - Radio/radarWeaponry

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Post WWI NavalSLIDE 10USN focuses on battleships Dominant form of naval system Post-WWI commissioned 18, building 2 Primary interwar investment of USN

Commercial development in aircraft Rapid advancement in capabilities Minimal USN investment – 5 CVs, 3

converted shipsLittle on submarines

1914 - 1939

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Changing today

Nano – materials, explosives, batteries -12Drones – range, payload, materials -13Artificial intelligence –3D Printing -

SLIDE 12

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Nano-energetics

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SLIDE 7

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For sale today

AI/Autonomous Drones

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AI - AutonomyWhat think of – what isRANGE – Transatlantic 1998 compositePAYLOAD – ounces to hundreds of #COST - $300 to billionDIY projects Find red objects--Follow a person’s face

Amazon project 20 lbs, 100 miles Non-GPS

Swiss post office15

3D: Capability + Volume

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113 materials –100 times faster - SLIDE

IED that hunts you

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QRrSriR5b6s

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Forest Racing –Star Wars is here?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwL0t5kPf6EForest racing drones 1:10 to 2:15

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--Ukranian drones support militia--Funded by mothers--Flown by volunteers

3D Printed, AutonomousDrone

00 – 0:30

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Slocum Glider

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ImplicationsPower projection using conventional platforms becomes much more difficult Does tactical defense gain an edge? APOE/APODs vulnerable? Major bases vulnerable?

Unconventional attackers only “bring the detonator?”National mobilization of industry?

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Everyone has them –and they are evolving

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hMR86-6J7Y 10:00 to 10:45

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Airpower’s role

Hold high groundDefend the homelandProvide strike Support joint/combined force Manage unsolvable problems

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Contact Information

txhammes1@gmail.com

Backup slides

Additional videos of drones

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHo7x2Vcjjg Drone Warfare for the Poor 2:00 to

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http://www.wired.com/2014/09/military-grade-drone-can-printed-anywhere/1:45$2500, off the shelf40 minutes, autonomous (android phone)1.5 lbsNew printing 25 times faster.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hMR86-6J7Y 10:00 to 10:45 Drones cost approaches zerohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwL0t5kPf6EForest racing drones 2:45 to 3:15

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSYQyAljYOYAutonomous drone with LIDARhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUpmPUcnuBY&feature=youtu.be&autoplay=1Drone with immersion goggles

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