Post on 18-Oct-2020
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Cohort Effects in Homelessness: Trends among Older and
Emerging Adults
Dennis Culhane & Thomas Byrne
National Alliance to End Homelessness Annual Conference
July 23, 2013
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Overview
• 1) Recent National Evidence of Aging Trend
• 2) A Cohort Effect: Why Homelessness Among Older Adults Will Increase in Coming Years
• 3) Forecasting Future Trends In Homelessness Among Older Adults
• 4) Key issues to address: aging-related care and housing; and an emerging adult cohort?
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
1) RECENT NATIONAL EVIDENCE
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Recent National Trends • Older homeless adults
are growing as a share of the homeless population
• Roughly 28% of all homeless single adults were 51+ in 2011
• Up from 23% in 2007
20.3% 23.7% 24.6%
51.9% 48.4% 46.2%
18.9% 22.3% 23.4%
4.1% 4.2% 4.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2010 2011
% o
f A
ll H
om
ele
ss S
ingl
e A
du
lts
Age Distribution of Single Adult Homeless Population
18-30 31-50 51-61 62+
Source: 2011 Annual Homeless Assessment Report to Congress
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Recent National Trends • 7% Increase in number
of homeless adults ages 51+ since in 2007
• 1 in every 350 adults over age 51 experiences homelessness over the course of a year
• 1 in every 50 adults over age 51 in poverty is homeless over course of a year
4.1% 4.2% 4.4%
256,462
276,459
273,683
245,000
250,000
255,000
260,000
265,000
270,000
275,000
280,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2010 2011
Annual Number of Single Homeless Adults Ages 51+
Source: 2011 Annual Homeless Assessment Report to Congress & Author Calculations using American Community Survey data
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
2) A COHORT EFFECT: WHY HOMELESSNESS AMONG OLDER
ADULTS WILL INCREASE IN COMING YEARS
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
A Cohort Phenomenon
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
% o
f Si
ngl
e A
du
lt M
ale
Ho
me
less
Po
p.
2010(%) 2000(%) 1990(%)
31-33 40-42 49-51
1 in 3 sheltered homeless single adult males was age 46-54 in 2010 (1 in 5 in 2000 1 in 8 in 1990)
Source: Culhane et al. (2013)/ U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
23.1 26.1
43.8
18.1 18.7
32.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1990 2000 2010
% o
f Si
ngl
e A
du
lt M
ale
Ho
me
less
Po
pu
lati
on
% Sheltered Single Adult Male Homeless Population Accounted For By Persons Ages 49+ and 55+, 1990-2010
Age 49+ Age 55+
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Aging Trend Consistent Across Cities . . .
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
% o
f P
reva
len
ce C
oh
ort
Age Distribution of Prevalence Cohorts of Male Shelter Users in New York City, 1990-2010
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
31-33
46-48
Source: Culhane et al. (2013)/ New York City Department of Homeless Services Shelter Utilization Data
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Aging Trend Consistent Across Cities . . .
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
18
-21
22
-24
25
-27
28
-30
31
-33
34
-36
37
-39
40
-42
43
-45
46
-48
49
-51
52
-54
55
-57
58
-59
60
-61
62
-64
65
-74
75
+
% o
f Sh
elt
ere
d A
du
lt M
ale
Po
pu
lati
on
Age Distribution of Sheltered Adult Male Population, 2010
Boston (Suffolk County)
Houston (Harris County)
LA (LA County)
Seattle (King County)
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
. . . And Sub-populations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 andolder
% o
f H
om
ele
ss V
ete
ran
Po
pu
lati
on
Age Distribution of Homeless Veteran Population (based on users of VA specialized homeless programs) , 2000-2010
2000 2005 2010
64% of veterans experiencing homelessness in 2010 were age 50+ (37% in 2000)
Source: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Homeless Program Data
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Aging Trend Is Distinct from Aging of General Population
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
% o
f To
tal
2010 (Homless Pop.) 2010 (General Pop.)49-51 (11.3%)
49-51 (5.9%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Aging Trend Distinct from Aging of General Population
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Re
lati
ve R
isk
Relative Risk By Age, Male Shelter Users 1990-2010 (U.S. Census)
1990
2000
2010
34-36 (1.5)
43-45 (1.6)
49-51 (1.9)
Source: Culhane et al. (2013)/ U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
3) FORECASTING FUTURE TRENDS IN HOMELESSNESS AMONG OLDER
ADULTS
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
% o
f Si
ngl
e A
du
lt M
ale
Ho
me
less
Po
p.
2010(%) 2000(%) 1990(%)
34-36 40-42 49-51
Source: Culhane et al. (2013)/ U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
% o
f Si
ngl
e A
du
lt M
ale
Ho
me
less
Po
p.
Projected Age Distribution of Sheltered Single Adult Male Homeless Population, 2015-2025
2010
2015
2020
2025
49-51 52-54 65-74
Source: Author Estimates Based Data from U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
56,595
37,193
67,846
51,886
33,971 34,376
15,748
53,091
4,939 3,046 0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2010 (Estimated) 2015 (Forecasted) 2020 (Forecasted) 2025 (Forecasted)
Projected PIT Counts of Single Adult Homeless Population, 2015-2025
52 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 74 75+
Source: Author Estimates Based Data from U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation and AHAR Report Note: PIT estimates are extrapolated from projections generated using U.S. Census Bureau data and should be interpreted cautiously.
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
54,658
68,709
86,358
90,513
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2010 (Estimated) 2015 (Forecasted) 2020 (Forecasted) 2025 (Forecasted)
Tota
l Ho
me
less
Pe
rso
ns
Age
60
+
Total Persons (Age 60+)
Projected Future Growth in Homeless Population Age 60 and Above
Source: Author Estimates Based Data from U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation and AHAR Report Note: PIT estimates are extrapolated from projections generated using U.S. Census Bureau data and should be interpreted cautiously.
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Increased Mortality/Health Issues
• Average life expectancy of single homeless adults is 64 for males & 69 for females (Metraux et al, 2011)
• With increasing number of homeless persons approaching life expectancy, health care needs and associated costs expected to increase
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
54,658
68,709
86,358 90,513
$1.45
$1.84
$2.31 $2.41
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2010 (Estimated) 2015 (Forecasted) 2020 (Forecasted) 2025 (Forecasted)
Cu
mu
lati
ve H
eal
th C
are
Co
sts
(in
Bill
ion
s)
Tota
l Ho
me
less
Pe
rso
ns
Age
60
+
Total Persons (Age 60+) Cumulative Cost (Age 60+)
Projected Health Care Costs
Source: Author Estimates Based Data from U.S. Census Bureau, AHAR Report and U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. Note: Cost estimates based on use of VA healthcare services and should be interpreted cautiously.
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
4) KEY QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
$1.45
$1.84
$2.31 $2.41
$1.45 $1.60 $1.50 $1.30
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2010 (Estimated) 2015 (Forecasted) 2020 (Forecasted) 2025 (Forecasted)
Cu
mu
lati
ve H
eal
th C
are
Co
sts
(in
Bill
ion
s)
Cumulative Cost (Age 60+) If Housed
? ? ?
Can permanent housing lead to cost savings for health care system? How much?
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Pathways Out of Homelessness
• Average life expectancy ~64 years, but many older homeless adults exit homelessness through pathways other than death
• Little knowledge about patterns of desistance
• Comparing pathways of homeless decedents to those who exited homelessness before death may provide key insights in forecasting demand and designing alternative housing interventions
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Emerging Young Adult Cohort
• Projections suggest a growing proportion of young adults in homeless population; grouped around age 30 in 2020 and 35 in 2025.
• Similar causal factors? Great Recession, population bulge (Gen Y) (and young veterans)
• What will we do different to avoid long-term cohort effect? What interventions will disrupt this pattern?
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Thank You
• Contact: culhane@upenn.edu; byrnet@sp2.upenn.edu
• www.homelessnessanalytics.org
• www.endveteranhomelessness.org
• References: • Culhane, D.P., Metraux, S., Byrne, T., Stino, M. & Bainbridge, J. (2013). The Age
Structure of Contemporary Homelessness: Evidence and Implications for Public
Policy. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy.