Cohort Effects in Homelessness: Trends among Older and ... · Persons Ages 49+ and 55+, 1990-2010...

The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness

Cohort Effects in Homelessness: Trends among Older and

Emerging Adults

Dennis Culhane & Thomas Byrne

National Alliance to End Homelessness Annual Conference

July 23, 2013


Overview

• 1) Recent National Evidence of Aging Trend

• 2) A Cohort Effect: Why Homelessness Among Older Adults Will Increase in Coming Years

• 3) Forecasting Future Trends In Homelessness Among Older Adults

• 4) Key issues to address: aging-related care and housing; and an emerging adult cohort?


1) RECENT NATIONAL EVIDENCE


Recent National Trends • Older homeless adults

are growing as a share of the homeless population

• Roughly 28% of all homeless single adults were 51+ in 2011

• Up from 23% in 2007

20.3% 23.7% 24.6%

51.9% 48.4% 46.2%

18.9% 22.3% 23.4%

4.1% 4.2% 4.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2010 2011

% o

f A

ll H

om

ele

ss S

ingl

e A

du

lts

Age Distribution of Single Adult Homeless Population

18-30 31-50 51-61 62+

Source: 2011 Annual Homeless Assessment Report to Congress


Recent National Trends • 7% Increase in number

of homeless adults ages 51+ since in 2007

• 1 in every 350 adults over age 51 experiences homelessness over the course of a year

• 1 in every 50 adults over age 51 in poverty is homeless over course of a year

4.1% 4.2% 4.4%

256,462

276,459

273,683

245,000

250,000

255,000

260,000

265,000

270,000

275,000

280,000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2010 2011

Annual Number of Single Homeless Adults Ages 51+

Source: 2011 Annual Homeless Assessment Report to Congress & Author Calculations using American Community Survey data


2) A COHORT EFFECT: WHY HOMELESSNESS AMONG OLDER

ADULTS WILL INCREASE IN COMING YEARS


A Cohort Phenomenon

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

% o

f Si

ngl

e A

du

lt M

ale

Ho

me

less

Po

p.

2010(%) 2000(%) 1990(%)

31-33 40-42 49-51

1 in 3 sheltered homeless single adult males was age 46-54 in 2010 (1 in 5 in 2000 1 in 8 in 1990)

Source: Culhane et al. (2013)/ U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation


23.1 26.1

43.8

18.1 18.7

32.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1990 2000 2010

% o

f Si

ngl

e A

du

lt M

ale

Ho

me

less

Po

pu

lati

on

% Sheltered Single Adult Male Homeless Population Accounted For By Persons Ages 49+ and 55+, 1990-2010

Age 49+ Age 55+

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation


Aging Trend Consistent Across Cities . . .

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

% o

f P

reva

len

ce C

oh

ort

Age Distribution of Prevalence Cohorts of Male Shelter Users in New York City, 1990-2010

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

31-33

46-48

Source: Culhane et al. (2013)/ New York City Department of Homeless Services Shelter Utilization Data


Aging Trend Consistent Across Cities . . .

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

18

-21

22

-24

25

-27

28

-30

31

-33

34

-36

37

-39

40

-42

43

-45

46

-48

49

-51

52

-54

55

-57

58

-59

60

-61

62

-64

65

-74

75

+

% o

f Sh

elt

ere

d A

du

lt M

ale

Po

pu

lati

on

Age Distribution of Sheltered Adult Male Population, 2010

Boston (Suffolk County)

Houston (Harris County)

LA (LA County)

Seattle (King County)


. . . And Sub-populations

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 andolder

% o

f H

om

ele

ss V

ete

ran

Po

pu

lati

on

Age Distribution of Homeless Veteran Population (based on users of VA specialized homeless programs) , 2000-2010

2000 2005 2010

64% of veterans experiencing homelessness in 2010 were age 50+ (37% in 2000)

Source: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Homeless Program Data


Aging Trend Is Distinct from Aging of General Population

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

% o

f To

tal

2010 (Homless Pop.) 2010 (General Pop.)49-51 (11.3%)

49-51 (5.9%)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation


Aging Trend Distinct from Aging of General Population

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Re

lati

ve R

isk

Relative Risk By Age, Male Shelter Users 1990-2010 (U.S. Census)

1990

2000

2010

34-36 (1.5)

43-45 (1.6)

49-51 (1.9)



3) FORECASTING FUTURE TRENDS IN HOMELESSNESS AMONG OLDER

ADULTS


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

% o

f Si

ngl

e A

du

lt M

ale

Ho

me

less

Po

p.

2010(%) 2000(%) 1990(%)

34-36 40-42 49-51



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

% o

f Si

ngl

e A

du

lt M

ale

Ho

me

less

Po

p.

Projected Age Distribution of Sheltered Single Adult Male Homeless Population, 2015-2025

2010

2015

2020

2025

49-51 52-54 65-74

Source: Author Estimates Based Data from U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation


56,595

37,193

67,846

51,886

33,971 34,376

15,748

53,091

4,939 3,046 0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2010 (Estimated) 2015 (Forecasted) 2020 (Forecasted) 2025 (Forecasted)

Projected PIT Counts of Single Adult Homeless Population, 2015-2025

52 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 74 75+

Source: Author Estimates Based Data from U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation and AHAR Report Note: PIT estimates are extrapolated from projections generated using U.S. Census Bureau data and should be interpreted cautiously.


54,658

68,709

86,358

90,513

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Tota

l Ho

me

less

Pe

rso

ns

Age

60

+

Total Persons (Age 60+)

Projected Future Growth in Homeless Population Age 60 and Above

Source: Author Estimates Based Data from U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation and AHAR Report Note: PIT estimates are extrapolated from projections generated using U.S. Census Bureau data and should be interpreted cautiously.


Increased Mortality/Health Issues

• Average life expectancy of single homeless adults is 64 for males & 69 for females (Metraux et al, 2011)

• With increasing number of homeless persons approaching life expectancy, health care needs and associated costs expected to increase


54,658

68,709

86,358 90,513

$1.45

$1.84

$2.31 $2.41

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Cu

mu

lati

ve H

eal

th C

are

Co

sts

(in

Bill

ion

s)

Tota

l Ho

me

less

Pe

rso

ns

Age

60

+

Total Persons (Age 60+) Cumulative Cost (Age 60+)

Projected Health Care Costs

Source: Author Estimates Based Data from U.S. Census Bureau, AHAR Report and U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. Note: Cost estimates based on use of VA healthcare services and should be interpreted cautiously.


4) KEY QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED


$1.45

$1.84

$2.31 $2.41

$1.45 $1.60 $1.50 $1.30

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Cu

mu

lati

ve H

eal

th C

are

Co

sts

(in

Bill

ion

s)

Cumulative Cost (Age 60+) If Housed

? ? ?

Can permanent housing lead to cost savings for health care system? How much?


Pathways Out of Homelessness

• Average life expectancy ~64 years, but many older homeless adults exit homelessness through pathways other than death

• Little knowledge about patterns of desistance

• Comparing pathways of homeless decedents to those who exited homelessness before death may provide key insights in forecasting demand and designing alternative housing interventions


Emerging Young Adult Cohort

• Projections suggest a growing proportion of young adults in homeless population; grouped around age 30 in 2020 and 35 in 2025.

• Similar causal factors? Great Recession, population bulge (Gen Y) (and young veterans)

• What will we do different to avoid long-term cohort effect? What interventions will disrupt this pattern?


Thank You

• Contact: [email protected]; [email protected]

• www.homelessnessanalytics.org

• www.endveteranhomelessness.org

• References: • Culhane, D.P., Metraux, S., Byrne, T., Stino, M. & Bainbridge, J. (2013). The Age

Structure of Contemporary Homelessness: Evidence and Implications for Public

Policy. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy.

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.homelessnessanalytics.org

http://www.endveteranhomelessness.org

Cohort Effects in Homelessness: Trends among Older and ... · Persons Ages 49+ and 55+, 1990-2010...

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