Post on 02-Jan-2016
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Climate Variability and Weather Disasters
—Awareness of the Changing Climate
Ms. JIAO Meiyan
Department of Forecasting Services and Disaster Mitigation China Meteorological Administration
December, 7 2007. Geneva
Outline:
I. Weather Disasters in China
II. Climate Variability (in terms of temperature, precipitation) and the Impact
III.Cases of Extreme Events
Typhoon Rananim in 2004 lasting 108 hours
The Distribution of Meteorological Disasters in China
Weather Disasters in China, in terms of Frequency, Variety and Severity.
Major Weather Disasters in China
( in Percentage)
DroughtFlooding
TCs and Hail Others
The Losses by Meteorological Disasters
Losses per year: 178 billion RMB
Death per year: 4427 death
Economic Losses in Portion of GDP: 1%-3%
The Warmest Climate
Normal temp. 10.8℃12.1℃
Monthly Mean Temperature
Variations in China
1951-2006 annual mean temperature anomaly
and that of the wintertime, both relative
to the mean of 1961-1990.
The whole year
Wintertime (DJF)
Trend of the cold surge occurrences during 1961-2005
Decrease
Increase
Annual hot days (Tmax>35oC) in China during 1961-2006
Days
Drought Frequency (1961-2006) in China
More than 70%
Ac
rea
ge
(!0
4 H
ect
are
)
Annual acreage of the crop suffered from the drought in China during 1951-2006
Suffered from the drought and with the reduction of
the crop production
Influenced by the drought
Impact on the Agriculture
Red
uct
ion
(10
4 t
on
) Reduction in grain production in China
due to the droughts
Annual mean Precip. (mm)
(1971-2000)
Change (percentage) in annual mean Precip. During 195
7-2006
7 5 8 0 8 5 9 0 9 5 1 0 0 1 0 5 1 1 0 1 1 5 1 2 0 1 2 5 1 3 0 1 3 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
5 5
- 6 0
- 4 5
- 3 0
- 1 5
0
1 5
3 0
4 5
Trend of Precipitation
Reduced by 60%
Trends in the heavy rainfall days in the mainland of China in recent 50 Yrs
Increase significantlydecrease significantlyIncreasedecrease
Trend of the heavy rainfall in China
Rainy days with R>50mm
R>50mm over yangtze r i ver ( 27- 31. 75N, 107. 25- 122. 5E)
0
2
4
6
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991
9st52st
(52st)线性5469 98,99
8096
61-70ys: 2.2d71-80ys: 2.1d81-90ys: 2.4d91-00ys: 3.1d
Annual Flooding Frequency (1961-2006)
More than 70%
Suffered from flooding with the reduction of crop
Suffered from flooding
Ac
rea
ge
(!0
4 H
ect
are
)
Annual acreage of the crop suffered from the flooding
1951-2006年中国年农作物雨涝受灾及成灾面积历年变化
Major typhoon tracks for China
Number of TC landing in China during 1961-2006
Number of strong TC (wind speed >32.7m/s)
landing in China during 1961-2006
Economic loss caused by TCs in China during 1982-2006
An Extreme Rain Storm in Jinan, Capital of Shandong Provence
Hourly Maximum Rainfall 151 mm
Caused 37 Deaths
Sudden Severe Weather Occurs Frequently
Cases of Extreme Events
A heavy lightening event hit a school in the rural area and caused 7 children death and 43 people injured.
Lightening Event
Lightening Event Monitoring
Children injured and Death by lightening every year
Drought Related Disasters
Rain-making Actions
The number of days with heat waves The max temperature
(heat waves) hits the historical records in many cities
Heat Wave Events