Climate Progress: A Systems Thinking View · Presentation to CCL July 2017 Climate Progress: A...

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Transcript of Climate Progress: A Systems Thinking View · Presentation to CCL July 2017 Climate Progress: A...

Andrew Jones

Presentation to CCLJuly 2017

Climate Progress: A Systems Thinking View

Climate Interactive Team

Full Implementationof Paris Agreement & other announced national policies

Source: MIT Sloan/Climate Interactivehttp://climateinteractive.org

What does the Paris Agreement do?

How is C-ROADS used?

• Policymakers & negotiators:• US, China, Brazil, others• UN SG’s office• UN “Emissions Gap” studies• Others

John Kerry

“I have to tell you —

C-ROADS works, it is

important, and it is

already getting broad

dissemination... I used it!”

World Climate Role-play simulation

Netherlands

Kuala LumpurHyderabadMIT

KenyaVanuatu

GermanyMorocco Paris

643 events in 74 countries reaching 32,495 participants

World Climate Role-play simulation

https://www.climateinteractive.org

150

120

90

60

30

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Glo

ba

l G

ree

nh

ouse G

as E

mis

sio

ns (G

ton

sC

O2e

/ y

ea

r)

Expected Temp Anomaly 2100

November 2015, www.ClimateScoreboard.org

1.8°C3.2°F

3.4°C6.3°F

4.5°C8.1°F

2.6 to 5.9°C (4.8 to 10.6°F)

90% CI

2.0 to 4.6°C (3.6 to 8.2°F)

0.9 to 2.4°C (1.7 to 4.4°F)

Emissions (GtCO2e/year)

What changes do you think are necessary and feasible to address climate change?

Energy Efficiency

Mobile

Stationary

No change

Smallincrease

Big increase

e.g., transport and cars

e.g., buildings, industry, residential

Deforest-ation

No change

Small decrease

Big decrease

Forests

Afforest-ation

Bigincrease

Small increase

No change

Solar Radiation Management

SRM

MajorModestNone

Starting Year

Carbon Dioxide Removal

Ocean fertilization

Direct air capture

Biochar

BECCS

Ag. soil sequestration

MajorModestNone

Starting Year

Carbon Price

Carbon Price

None $20 $100

Starting Year

Other Greenhouse Gases

OtherGHGs

No change

Small decrease

Big decrease

e.g., methane, N2O, and F-gases

Population and Economic Growth

Population growth

BAULower Higher

GDP per capita

Energy Supply

Coal

Oil

Gas

Solar & Wind

Biofuels

New Zero C

Nuclear

CCS

No changeLess More

e.g., thorium fiss.

Caveats, conditions, and considerations

(use reverse of page)

Population Consumption Energy Intensity

Carbon Intensity

Energy CO2 emissions

Land use CO2 emissions

Other greenhouse gases

Total greenhouse gases (GHGs)

Temperature

Impacts

People $/person-year EJ/$ CO2/EJX X X

CO2/year

Units behind the Kaya identity

Cities and States are Responding 10

9

Your Climate Solutions Caucus8

40 national and 24 subnational jurisdictions are putting a price on carbon

• 7 out of the 10 largest global economies put a price on carbon

Source: World Bank and Ecofys, Carbon Pricing Watch 2016

Over the Tipping Point

Cost of RenewableEnergy

Demand forRenewable

Energy

R&D, Production Experience,Field Experience, Economiesof Scale, Public Acceptance

Price ofRenewable

Energy

+

+

-

-

R

Human Ingenuity

Carbon Tax,

Emissions Cap

+

Price of

Fossil Fuels

+

Government

Subsidies

7

6

44

5

Multisolving

https://www.climateinteractive.org/programs/multisolving/flower/

4

Social Change Looks Impossible Until It is Completed http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-pace-of-social-change/

3

“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.”

2

Standing Rock1

Andrew Jones

apjones@climateinteractive.orgAll simulations available at climateinteractive.org

Thank You!