Climate Progress: A Systems Thinking View · Presentation to CCL July 2017 Climate Progress: A...
28
Andrew Jones Presentation to CCL July 2017 Climate Progress: A Systems Thinking View
Transcript of Climate Progress: A Systems Thinking View · Presentation to CCL July 2017 Climate Progress: A...
Andrew Jones
Presentation to CCLJuly 2017
Climate Progress: A Systems Thinking View
Climate Interactive Team
Full Implementationof Paris Agreement & other announced national policies
Source: MIT Sloan/Climate Interactivehttp://climateinteractive.org
What does the Paris Agreement do?
How is C-ROADS used?
• Policymakers & negotiators:• US, China, Brazil, others• UN SG’s office• UN “Emissions Gap” studies• Others
John Kerry
“I have to tell you —
C-ROADS works, it is
important, and it is
already getting broad
dissemination... I used it!”
World Climate Role-play simulation
Netherlands
Kuala LumpurHyderabadMIT
KenyaVanuatu
GermanyMorocco Paris
643 events in 74 countries reaching 32,495 participants
World Climate Role-play simulation
https://www.climateinteractive.org
150
120
90
60
30
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Glo
ba
l G
ree
nh
ouse G
as E
mis
sio
ns (G
ton
sC
O2e
/ y
ea
r)
Expected Temp Anomaly 2100
November 2015, www.ClimateScoreboard.org
1.8°C3.2°F
3.4°C6.3°F
4.5°C8.1°F
2.6 to 5.9°C (4.8 to 10.6°F)
90% CI
2.0 to 4.6°C (3.6 to 8.2°F)
0.9 to 2.4°C (1.7 to 4.4°F)
Emissions (GtCO2e/year)
What changes do you think are necessary and feasible to address climate change?
Energy Efficiency
Mobile
Stationary
No change
Smallincrease
Big increase
e.g., transport and cars
e.g., buildings, industry, residential
Deforest-ation
No change
Small decrease
Big decrease
Forests
Afforest-ation
Bigincrease
Small increase
No change
Solar Radiation Management
SRM
MajorModestNone
Starting Year
Carbon Dioxide Removal
Ocean fertilization
Direct air capture
Biochar
BECCS
Ag. soil sequestration
MajorModestNone
Starting Year
Carbon Price
Carbon Price
None $20 $100
Starting Year
Other Greenhouse Gases
OtherGHGs
No change
Small decrease
Big decrease
e.g., methane, N2O, and F-gases
Population and Economic Growth
Population growth
BAULower Higher
GDP per capita
Energy Supply
Coal
Oil
Gas
Solar & Wind
Biofuels
New Zero C
Nuclear
CCS
No changeLess More
e.g., thorium fiss.
Caveats, conditions, and considerations
(use reverse of page)
Population Consumption Energy Intensity
Carbon Intensity
Energy CO2 emissions
Land use CO2 emissions
Other greenhouse gases
Total greenhouse gases (GHGs)
Temperature
Impacts
People $/person-year EJ/$ CO2/EJX X X
CO2/year
Units behind the Kaya identity
Cities and States are Responding 10
9
Your Climate Solutions Caucus8
40 national and 24 subnational jurisdictions are putting a price on carbon
• 7 out of the 10 largest global economies put a price on carbon
Source: World Bank and Ecofys, Carbon Pricing Watch 2016
Over the Tipping Point
Cost of RenewableEnergy
Demand forRenewable
Energy
R&D, Production Experience,Field Experience, Economiesof Scale, Public Acceptance
Price ofRenewable
Energy
+
+
-
-
R
Human Ingenuity
Carbon Tax,
Emissions Cap
+
Price of
Fossil Fuels
+
Government
Subsidies
–
7
6
44
5
Multisolving
https://www.climateinteractive.org/programs/multisolving/flower/
4
Social Change Looks Impossible Until It is Completed http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-pace-of-social-change/
3
“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.”
2
Standing Rock1
