Climate Change: Impacts,

Solutions, and Perceptions OLLI January 2013

• January 7 • The discovery of global warming - a history of climate change. • James Fleming, Colby College History Department

• January 14

• What is the state of the climate today? • Deke Arndt, Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA National Climatic

Data Center

January 21 – What is the difference between “weather" and "climate"? – Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director, NOAA Climate Prediction Center

• January 28 – How global climate change impacts the United States – Anthony C. Janetos, Director, Joint Global Change Research Institute

(Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland)

Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and

Perceptions – Fall 2012 (part 1)

• February 19 – Ocean acidification and the increase of greenhouse gases. – Dr. Christopher L. Sabine, Oceanographer, NOAA Pacific Marine

National Laboratory, Seattle

• February 26 – America’s choices for mitigation of climate change impacts – Robert W. Fri, Resources for the Future and Claudia Mengelt, National

Research Council (NAS)

• March 5 – Ethics and issues surrounding geo-engineering as a strategy to

mitigate climate change – Dr. Michael MacCracken, Climate Institute, Washington, D.C.

• March 12 – American attitudes and opinions on global warming – Dr. Matthew Nisbit, American University, School of Communication

Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and

Perceptions – Spring 2013 (part 2)

Climate Change: OLLI Jan. 2012

Ocean Currents and Atmospheric Oscillations: Causes or Results?

From Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Figure 2: Land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red), 0-700 meter OHC increase (light blue), 700-2,000 meter OHC increase (dark

blue). From Nuccitelli et al. (2012).

Warming the Oceans

• Oceans have absorbed 80% of the heat and 30-40% of excess CO2 over last ~100 years; effects will last for ~1,000 years

• *Alters circulation and atmospheric pressure

• Reduced CO2uptake (still increasing) and oxygen content

• Higher sea level from decreased density

• Massive biodiversity (threshold) changes as ocean warms more (ex. coral mortality, polar bear extinction, further fisheries depletion, reduction in coastal wetlands)

• *1979-2012 Arctic ice cover shrunk 50%

• Conduit for warm water melting of ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica)

Warm surface current- Less Dense Cold deep water current–More Dense Salty water anywhere- More Dense

Thermohaline Currents (THC)

“Conveyor Belt of Heat’

Image from Windows to the Universe

A Little More THC

Complexity

Arctic sea ice

minimum now at

lowest point since

satellite monitoring

from 1979 at -50%

(NASA)

http://bcove.me/gjl6e8ot for video of loss 1979-2012

Bering Strait

Importance of the

Bering Strait to Ocean

Circulation and World

Climate

Graphics from Univ. of Washington

Possible

Effects of

Changing

Circulation

USGCRP 2009

Permafrost melt

Warm surface current- Less Dense Cold deep water current–More Dense Salty water anywhere- More Dense

Thermohaline Currents (THC)

Scenario for THC Alteration –

More Flow Through Bering Strait

by 2050

cooler No. Atl. = wetter SW US

El Niño Winter of 2009-2010

Photos from LAT; graphic from EOS – AGU, Dec. 2009

Graphic buy John F. Henz, JPL

El Niño –

warmer

eastern

ocean, more

stormy

across US,

raises sea

level from

warmer

water, less

productivity

La Niña –

cooler eastern

ocean, less

storm

intensity, drier

US. Lower

sea level,

more

productivity

Atmospheric Oscillations – ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/glb8_3b/html/anims/eqp/sst30d.gif

Source: Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey

El Niño

Modoki

Index*

From: Japanese Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Region 3

~2012

Pinatubo

What Does

Future Hold for

El Niño with a

Warming

Climate?

Vecchi et al., 2010

La

Niña

La

Niña

El

Niño

El

Niño

El

Niño

(El Niño year) (LaNina year)

Courtesy of Keith Moore, UCI ESS

Atmospheric Oscillations – PDO

(Pacific “Decadal” Oscillation)

Little Ice Age 1400-1800; Medieval Warm Period

800-1300

“Atmospheric Rivers”

From American Geophysical Union, 2011 and Scripps (Jan. 1988 photo)

Oct. 2009

Atmospheric Oscillations – AO

(Arctic Oscillation)

Mallorca Spain Wash., D.C.

Romania

Negative Phase = high Arctic

pressure, surges of cold air south

and warm air north

Positive Phase = low Arctic pressure,

stable jet stream that keeps cold air

around Arctic

Source: NOAA

H.C.Greene, Scientif. Am., Nov. 2012

Updates to GWU-OLLI/NOAA DVD #3

• World population today at 7.06B (U.S. at 325M)

• CO2 leader with 2010 US Dept. of Energy numbers

• In Total: China 23.5%, US 18.3%, EU 27 countries

14%, India 5.8%

• Per Capita: Saudi Arabia, US, Australia, Canada

• World Economic Forum’s Global Risks for 2013 Report

out Jan. 8th – top 5 risks

• #1 and 2 were economic dealing with wealthy-poor

differences

• #3 rising GHG emissions

• #4 water supply crises

• #5 mismanagement of aging population

• report at http://www.weforum.org

1947

2009

What Large-Scale Phenomenon Could Disturb the Ocean THC?

El Niño – warm eastern

Pacific

La Niña – cool eastern

Pacific

ENSO – El Niño

Southern Oscillation

(atmosph. pressure)

Courtesy of Francois Primeau, UCI ESS

La Niña

El Niño

Figure 1: Total Earth Heat Content anomaly from 1950 (Murphy 2009). Ocean data taken from Domingues et al 2008. Land + Atmosphere

includes the heat absorbed to melt ice.

Link > http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=u_0JZRIHFtk