Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and Perceptions– Ethics and issues surrounding geo-engineering...
Transcript of Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and Perceptions– Ethics and issues surrounding geo-engineering...
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Climate Change: Impacts,
Solutions, and Perceptions OLLI January 2013
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• January 7 • The discovery of global warming - a history of climate change. • James Fleming, Colby College History Department
• January 14
• What is the state of the climate today? • Deke Arndt, Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA National Climatic
Data Center
January 21 – What is the difference between “weather" and "climate"? – Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
• January 28 – How global climate change impacts the United States – Anthony C. Janetos, Director, Joint Global Change Research Institute
(Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland)
Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and
Perceptions – Fall 2012 (part 1)
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• February 19 – Ocean acidification and the increase of greenhouse gases. – Dr. Christopher L. Sabine, Oceanographer, NOAA Pacific Marine
National Laboratory, Seattle
• February 26 – America’s choices for mitigation of climate change impacts – Robert W. Fri, Resources for the Future and Claudia Mengelt, National
Research Council (NAS)
• March 5 – Ethics and issues surrounding geo-engineering as a strategy to
mitigate climate change – Dr. Michael MacCracken, Climate Institute, Washington, D.C.
• March 12 – American attitudes and opinions on global warming – Dr. Matthew Nisbit, American University, School of Communication
Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and
Perceptions – Spring 2013 (part 2)
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Climate Change: OLLI Jan. 2012
Ocean Currents and Atmospheric Oscillations: Causes or Results?
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From Pew Center on Global Climate Change
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Figure 2: Land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red), 0-700 meter OHC increase (light blue), 700-2,000 meter OHC increase (dark
blue). From Nuccitelli et al. (2012).
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Warming the Oceans
• Oceans have absorbed 80% of the heat and 30-40% of excess CO2 over last ~100 years; effects will last for ~1,000 years
• *Alters circulation and atmospheric pressure
• Reduced CO2uptake (still increasing) and oxygen content
• Higher sea level from decreased density
• Massive biodiversity (threshold) changes as ocean warms more (ex. coral mortality, polar bear extinction, further fisheries depletion, reduction in coastal wetlands)
• *1979-2012 Arctic ice cover shrunk 50%
• Conduit for warm water melting of ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica)
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Warm surface current- Less Dense Cold deep water current–More Dense Salty water anywhere- More Dense
Thermohaline Currents (THC)
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“Conveyor Belt of Heat’
Image from Windows to the Universe
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A Little More THC
Complexity
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Arctic sea ice
minimum now at
lowest point since
satellite monitoring
from 1979 at -50%
(NASA)
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http://bcove.me/gjl6e8ot for video of loss 1979-2012
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Bering Strait
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Importance of the
Bering Strait to Ocean
Circulation and World
Climate
Graphics from Univ. of Washington
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Possible
Effects of
Changing
Circulation
USGCRP 2009
Permafrost melt
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Warm surface current- Less Dense Cold deep water current–More Dense Salty water anywhere- More Dense
Thermohaline Currents (THC)
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Scenario for THC Alteration –
More Flow Through Bering Strait
by 2050
cooler No. Atl. = wetter SW US
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El Niño Winter of 2009-2010
Photos from LAT; graphic from EOS – AGU, Dec. 2009
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Graphic buy John F. Henz, JPL
El Niño –
warmer
eastern
ocean, more
stormy
across US,
raises sea
level from
warmer
water, less
productivity
La Niña –
cooler eastern
ocean, less
storm
intensity, drier
US. Lower
sea level,
more
productivity
Atmospheric Oscillations – ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)
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http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/glb8_3b/html/anims/eqp/sst30d.gif
Source: Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey
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El Niño
Modoki
Index*
From: Japanese Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Region 3
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~2012
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Pinatubo
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What Does
Future Hold for
El Niño with a
Warming
Climate?
Vecchi et al., 2010
La
Niña
La
Niña
El
Niño
El
Niño
El
Niño
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(El Niño year) (LaNina year)
Courtesy of Keith Moore, UCI ESS
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Atmospheric Oscillations – PDO
(Pacific “Decadal” Oscillation)
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Little Ice Age 1400-1800; Medieval Warm Period
800-1300
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“Atmospheric Rivers”
From American Geophysical Union, 2011 and Scripps (Jan. 1988 photo)
Oct. 2009
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Atmospheric Oscillations – AO
(Arctic Oscillation)
Mallorca Spain Wash., D.C.
Romania
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Negative Phase = high Arctic
pressure, surges of cold air south
and warm air north
Positive Phase = low Arctic pressure,
stable jet stream that keeps cold air
around Arctic
Source: NOAA
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H.C.Greene, Scientif. Am., Nov. 2012
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Updates to GWU-OLLI/NOAA DVD #3
• World population today at 7.06B (U.S. at 325M)
• CO2 leader with 2010 US Dept. of Energy numbers
• In Total: China 23.5%, US 18.3%, EU 27 countries
14%, India 5.8%
• Per Capita: Saudi Arabia, US, Australia, Canada
• World Economic Forum’s Global Risks for 2013 Report
out Jan. 8th – top 5 risks
• #1 and 2 were economic dealing with wealthy-poor
differences
• #3 rising GHG emissions
• #4 water supply crises
• #5 mismanagement of aging population
• report at http://www.weforum.org
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1947
2009
What Large-Scale Phenomenon Could Disturb the Ocean THC?
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El Niño – warm eastern
Pacific
La Niña – cool eastern
Pacific
ENSO – El Niño
Southern Oscillation
(atmosph. pressure)
Courtesy of Francois Primeau, UCI ESS
La Niña
El Niño
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Figure 1: Total Earth Heat Content anomaly from 1950 (Murphy 2009). Ocean data taken from Domingues et al 2008. Land + Atmosphere
includes the heat absorbed to melt ice.
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Link > http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=u_0JZRIHFtk