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Climate Change and Australian Agriculture
The Issue
Despite the picture of scientific uncertainty promoted by the mass media, the overwhelming
majority of scientists are unequivocal in their belief in anthropogenic climate change, the danger it
represents, and the urgency of the situation. The public at large could almost be forgiven for
thinking it was 50-50 in the scientific community regarding whether climate change is happening,
but in reality 97.5% of practising climate scientists and every academy of science in the world
believes that anthropogenic climate change is real (National, 2011). Dr. Peter Gleick, co-founder
and director of the Pacific Institute and member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences recently
summed up, before congress, why the scientific evidence on climate change should be trusted. He
testified that the scientific process is: "inherently adversarial - scientists build reputations and gainrecognition... for demonstrating that the scientific consensus is wrong and that there is a better
explanation... But no one who argues against the science of climate change has ever provided an
alternative scientific theory that adequately satisfies the observable evidence or conforms to our
understanding of physics, chemistry, and climate dynamics" (Ross, 2011). The link between
anthropogenic climate change and observed environmental variations is also increasingly well
understood (Rosenzweig, 2008).
We need action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions dramatically and quickly to avoid
catastrophic climate change. It is a difficult proposal, but well within the capabilities of this
resilient, wealthy and productive nation (Flannery, 2005, Kane, 1992, Garnaut, 2008). Globally,
emission levels are spread unevenly in terms of population, with Australia ranked among the largest
per capita emitters (see Figure 1. in Appendix) and absolute highest per capita emitter among
OECD nations (Garnaut, 2008). There is no 'silver bullet' cure to GHG emissions but rather a
multiplicity of changes must be made.
An area which could contribute massively to mitigation of our GHG emissions is the agriculture
sector. In Australia this sector is responsible for up to 30% of our GHG emissions annually (see
Figure 2. of Appendix) and also uses over two thirds of our land mass and nearly 70% of surface
water (Hamblin, 2009). Despite using such a vast amount of water and land, and producing such
copious amounts of GHG's, agriculture only amounts to approximately 3-4% of our GDP
(Hamblin, 2009, CIA, 2011).
Like most of the wealthy Western world, Australian law and policy relating to the agriculture
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industry is out of touch with the realities of the sector. This dichotomy between modern theory and
archaic policy constitutes a massive obstacle to progress towards environmentally friendly farming
practises. Australia has a policy of using market-based forces and indirect incentives to produce an
efficient farming sector (Trade, n.d.) but, while this policy has helped achieve economic efficiency,
it has fostered many environmental and social problems (Hamblin, 2009).
This paper will discuss the complex relationships between agriculture and climate change: the
effects of climate change on food production and food security, the current GHG emissions from
agriculture and how agriculture could become a net negative emitter. The solutions to the climate
change related problems of the agricultural sector are complex, but, perhaps even more so than in
other sectors, significant GHG emission reductions could be achieved quickly and cheaply, with
significant economic benefits in the relatively short term.
Business-as-usual
Australia is regarded as being significantly more vulnerable to climate change than most OECD
nations (Gunasekera, 2007) as it is the driest inhabited continent, much of the native vegetation is
unsuitable for fodder, the climate is typified by regular floods and droughts, and we lack the deep,
fertile soil laid down by glaciers in Europe and America (Hanna, 2011).
The entire agriculture sector is intrinsically linked with climate and environmental conditions, and
much of the sector, especially in southern Australia, is already under significant threat because of
rising heat and protracted drying, with significantly worse predicted (Hanna, 2011, Hughes, 2003)
(see Figure 3. of Appendix). While there is much talk of 'carbon fertilisation', and resulting
increased food production, research proves that, without significant adaptation efforts, little to no
benefit will result from increased carbon dioxide due to increased temperature and changed rainfall
patterns. Even with adaptation, benefits will be uneven and become totally redundant with average
temperature rises of more than about 2 degrees (Howden, Soussana et al. 2007).
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases scenarios based on accumulated
scientific evidence. Their 'A1FI scenario', released in 2007, was meant to represent a worst case
scenario under business-as-usual conditions, with high economic growth based on continued
burning of fossil fuels. Recent research across many fields suggests that the global climate is
tracking beyondthe worst case estimates predicted from this A1FI scenario (Hanna, 2011, Hanna
et al., 2011). Predictions for Australia include 5-8 degree temperature rises over southwest Western
Australia, South Australia and Victoria by 2100 (Perkins, 2009). Worst case scenario predictions
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can't keep up with the reality of rising temperatures, melting sea ice and widespread ecological
impacts (Steffen, 2009).
It is already understood that the pre-climate change El Nio Southern Oscillation phenomenon, is
responsible for between 15% and 35% of variability in global yields of wheat, oilseeds and coarse
grains (Howden et al., 2007). With expected climate change and population forecasts it is very
likely that the carrying capacity of the environment in terms of food production will soon be
exceeded (McMichael et al., 2007).
While agriculture only amounts to 3-4% of GDP it amounts to 40% of our export sector, meaning
that a collapse in food production due to climate change would quickly result in economic damage,
placing strain on food security, here and elsewhere (Athukorala, 2003). As a nation with harshenvironment, using agricultural practises unsuited to our climate, and given the warming and drying
trends already seen, it is safe to assume that even a situation of moderate climate change, without
significant adaptation, could easily result in near collapse of our food production and compromise
our food security.
For rural Australia the greatest impacts are likely to result from diminishing economic viability of
agricultural production (Hanna et al., 2011). Many Australian farmers are already in dire financial
straits because of warming and drying trends (Hanna et al., 2011, Hamblin, 2009). Ninety four
percent of Australian farms are still family-based, but the top 10% of farms are responsible for 90%
of value of production (see Figure 4. in Appendix). This impacts on the profitability of smaller scale
farmers as they compete against impossible-to-replicate economies of scale. In fact the average
farm debt in Australia is $400,000 (Hamblin, 2009). So in quite a short time, even slightly increased
environmental pressures from climate change would undoubtedly lead to massive numbers of farm
closures, which would in turn lead on to the collapse of many rural communities (Hamblin, 2009).
Mitigation
Historically human food production and consumption has gone through three main phases:
Hunter-gatherer much energy is expended to gather and catch wild food. While some
societies seem to have been able to obtain sufficient food without excessive exertion, this
was typically assisted by low population density and lack of competition.
The agricultural revolution - early farming and livestock domestication enabled increased
food production which in turn allowed for greater population density.
Second agricultural revolution (only in high income countries) changes include
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privatisation of shared land, synthetic fertilisers, mechanical farm equipment, genetic
engineering, intensive or factory farming techniques among other things. This ongoing stage
in human food production and consumption has become increasingly dependant on non-
renewable energy inputs, primarily through the burning of fossil fuels.
(McMichael et al., 2007)
Agricultural advances have tended to evolve and be adopted unevenly, leading to ingrained
practises, law and policy which is not optimised for societal, cultural or environmental realities, to
the point where in some countries total energy input into food production now greatly exceeds food
energy yield (McMichael et al., 2007).
The largest GHG reducing change that could be made to Australian agriculture would be to abandonour national, cultural obsession with eating large quantities of meat. The land, water and energy
required to raise livestock for meat is truly horrifying, with livestock production accounting for
almost 80% of the agriculture sector's emissions (McMichael et al., 2007). Ruminant livestock is by
far the worst and to prevent increases in GHG emissions from agriculture due to population growth,
let alone reduce emissions, a reduction in at least red meat consumption, if not all animal products,
is necessary (McMichael et al., 2007). The current global average meat consumption is 100g per
person per day, with high consuming populations responsible for up to 10 times as much as low
consuming populations (McMichael et al., 2007) (See Figure 5. in Appendix) and most studies
place Australia within the top 4 or 5 countries in terms of per capita meat consumption (Howe,
2006, Norat, 2002, McAfee, 2010). In terms of GHG emissions per unit food-energy, meat and
animal products cannot compare to non-animal agriculture because of huge methane and nitrous
oxide emissions, as well as increased land clearing required because feeding a population on a diet
of animal protein requires an order of magnitude more farmland than does a diet of plant protein
(McMichael et al., 2007) (See Figure 6. in Appendix).
There is no legitimate argument against significant reductions in meat and animal product
consumption, as not only is the environmental damage of the meat industry well understood and
documented, but many scientific studies prove that vegetarian or vegan diets can be of significant
health benefit over diets high in meat and animal products (Norat, 2002, Rizzo et al., 2011, Jacobs
et al., 2009, Hebbelinck et al., 1999) (See Figure 7 in Appendix).
Despite the scientific simplicity of the plant protein versus animal protein argument, there is no
chance, for political and cultural reasons, of quickly changing, as a nation, to an entirely vegan diet.
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Therefore government policy must begin to disincentivise livestock-based agriculture, while
creating incentives for land, currently used for livestock, to be converted to bio-fuel crops or
reforested. One way of doing this would be including methane and nitrous oxide emissions in a
carbon tax, thus increasing the cost of ruminant based agriculture, while simultaneously providing
financial incentives for farmers to turn to stewardship of large tracts of reforested land. Methane
and nitrous oxide emissions being taxed would also provide an incentive for emissions reductions
from all agriculture, with research showing that currently available mitigation technologies could
reduce emissions by up to 20% at relatively low costs (McMichael et al., 2007).
A number of nations have resisted international measures to reduce GHG emissions on the grounds
that they will be detrimental to economic growth. However, economist Nicholas Stern, and many
others, claim that, without swift and decisive response to the threat of dramatic climate change,sustained economic growth will be impossible in the medium to long term, due to environmental
catastrophe. Arguably steps taken to reduce emissions, and thus reduce potential climate change, are
actually pro-growth (McMichael et al., 2007)
Soil organic carbon sequestration (SOCS) refers to increasing carbon stored in organic matter in the
soil. This can be achieved through improved land usage and RMPs (recommended management
practices), and has the potential to offset global GHG emissions by between 0.4 and 1.2 gigaton
(Gt) of carbon per year, equivalent to approximately 5-15% of global emissions from fossil fuels
((Lal, 2004). SOCS has the potential not only to mitigate carbon emissions from other sources, up
to 1000kg of carbon per hectare per year in some areas, but can also dramatically increase yields
and be used in conjunction with other methods to revitalise degraded soils (Lal, 2004). Common,
easily implemented RMPs leading to SOCS are: mulch farming, conservation tillage, agroforestry,
diverse cropping system, cover crops and integrated nutrient management, including the use of
manure, compost, biosolids, improved grazing, and forest management (Lal, 2004). Simply
converting farm land from conventional till farming to no-till farming can reduce emissions by 30-
35kg of carbon per season (Follett, 2001). Australia has significant amounts of degraded arable
land, perfectly suited for SOCS through improved agricultural practises or land use change
(Hamblin, 2009, Flannery, 1997). Many studies of the potential for SOCS have been done and the
combined potential for increased yields with dramatically reduced carbon emissions is well
understood (Smith, 2000). The UN recently released a report suggesting that food production in
some areas could be as much as doubled within 10 years, while mitigating GHG emissions, through
the introduction of eco-farming practises (Leahy, 2011).
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A possible problem with SOCS is the estimation that sequestration of 1Gt of carbon in soil could
require up to 80 million tons (Mt) of Nitrogen, 20Mt of Phosphorus, and 15Mt of Potassium
(McMichael et al., 2007). This issue could be addressed through the use of crop residues which
contain all these nutrients. Three Gt of grain residue are produced globally each year and, if
recycled rather than removed for other uses, there would be a dramatic increase in soil quality and
sequestration of carbon (McMichael et al., 2007).
According to scientific studies, surplus arable land is the most important resource in agricultural
climate change mitigation (Smith, 2000). An important use of surplus arable land is for bio-fuel
crops. Bio-fuel crops have the potential to decrease food security if wealthy governments
incentivise bio-fuel crops in a way that makes them more economically attractive than food crops;
causing farmers to move away from food crops for financial reasons, regardless of global demandfor food (Boddiger, 2007). This problem, however could easily be avoided with proper management
of the agriculture sector. Increased yields from SOCS and RMPs combined with livestock
reductions would provide vast amounts of surplus arable land which could then be used for either
bio-fuel crops or reforestation.
Reforestation as a climate change mitigation tool is powerful in the short-medium term and also has
two-fold productivity as both a mitigation and adaptation strategy. As well as storing large amounts
of carbon in biomass, thus mitigating GHG emissions from other sources, increasing tracts of native
forest will increase biodiversity and resilience of plant and animal species (Pielke, 2002).
Bio-fuel crops, meanwhile, show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation of all land-use change
strategies, primarily because the mitigation is indefinite while other strategies, such as reforestation,
tend towards production of a new balanced system after about 50-100 years of carbon sequestration
(Smith, 2000).
Adaptation
There is no doubt that mitigation attempts will come substantially too late and too slowly to avoid
significant temperature rises and related climate change damage and, as such, adaptation will also
be necessary (Garnaut, 2008). Adaptation to climate change requires that we plan for worst case
scenario outcomes (Hanna, 2011), so, while we fight through mitigation attempts to reduce future
climate change, we must immediately adapt our agriculture industry so as to attempt to ensure that
it can be viable even should our mitigation efforts fail. This can be achieved by focussing on
development of more resilient agricultural systems (Howden et al., 2007), with special importance
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placed on practises more appropriate to the harsh Australian environment (Flannery, 2009).
Mitigation efforts will also tie in with adaptation as changes to farming practises improve soil
quality and increase yields.
When Australia was settled by Europeans they imported their agricultural practises with them,
practises that had evolved and were suited to an entirely different environment, a wet and fertile
one, but often not suited to harsh Australian conditions (Flannery, 1997, Diamond, 2005). In many
cases these agricultural practises, because they were not designed for use in an environment of high
salinity, low rainfall, high temperatures and thin topsoil, have resulted in serious degradation of the
already fragile Australian environment (Flannery, 1997). On a global scale there is immense
diversity within the agricultural sector because of the range of environmental and climatic variables,
as well as cultural and economic factors. This diversity allows for a wide range of adaptationpossibilities (Howden et al., 2007). Some adaptation options include: altering timing and location of
agricultural activities, altering varieties/species inputs, altering fertiliser rates, altering amounts and
timing of irrigation and other water management, wider use of technology to harvest water,
conserve soil moisture, and use and transport water more effectively (Howden et al., 2007). If
implemented thoroughly these adaptation measures have substantial potential to offset negative
climate change impacts and to take advantage of positive ones (Howden et al., 2007).
Implementation of some or all of the above mentioned measures is likely to significantly improve
the ability of our agriculture sector to adjust to moderate climate change, with 'damage avoidance'
of 1-3 degrees. However, scientific research is showing us that climate change resulting in average
temperature rises greater than 2 degrees will severely limit the effectiveness of any and all
adaptation attempts, as will decreased, rather than increased rainfall (Howden et al., 2007).
Conclusion
Climate change represents a global issue with complex, far reaching and dangerous repercussions.
Turning climate science into action is notoriously difficult because it is a problem of slow change
and difficult to quantify damage. Our environmental systems are all intrinsically linked, and we rely
on them for our very survival. Nowhere can this be seen more clearly than in our agriculture sector
where, without dramatic change, continuation of unsustainable farming practises, and misuse of
purchasing power by the population at large will contribute to increased climate change which will
in turn reduce our capacity to produce food. Through combined mitigation and adaptation efforts it
is possible that our agriculture sector can become a net negative GHG emitter, and increase food
production, while providing opportunities for agricultural investment and economic benefits to
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those who take early action (Howden et al., 2007). Comprehensive combined mitigation and
adaptation strategies will require legal and policy changes to provide incentives, economic and
otherwise, for change in the agricultural sector. Where climate change strategies may encourage
major changes in land use there will be requirement for governmental assistance to support
relocation of both people and industries, and the creation of new jobs (Howden et al., 2007) but
significantly less so than under business-as-usual models with inevitable rural community collapse
(Hanna et al., 2011, Hamblin, 2009).
We are the progeny of people who hunted and gathered, whose lives were brief and whose greatest
threat was a man with a stick. When terrorists attack, we respond with crushing force and firm
resolve, just as our ancestors would have. Global warming is a deadly threat precisely because it
fails to trip the brain's alarm, leaving us soundly asleep in a burning bed (Gilbert, 2006). As such anotoriously tricky subject we must approach it pro-actively, scientists must learn to become better at
quantifying and communicating their research, while policy and decision makers must accept that
fuzzy knowledge is better than no knowledge (Howden, Soussana et al. 2007) and that
inconclusiveness on the specifics of the climate disaster does not give reason for inaction (Howden
et al., 2007).
Climate change is a problem which requires massive social and political, structural change; a
difficult requirement in contemporary society. That such change is possible though is demonstrated
by historical precedent. At the beginning of World War II out entire economy was reshaped almost
overnight to cater for the requirements of going to war. The ramifications of unmitigated climate
change, as understood by the scientific community, are at least as terrifying as a world war and so,
with political will (and perhaps an intensive public climate science education program) the
necessary policy can be implemented and through combined mitigation and adaptation strategies we
can begin to tackle what is undoubtedly the most pressing issue of this century.
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Appendix
Figure 1. (UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2005)
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Figure 2. (Garnaut 2008)
(Garnaut, 2008)Figure 3. (Garnaut 2008)
Figure 4. (Hamblin, 2009)
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Figure 5. (Hamblin, 2009)
Figure 6. (McMichael et al., 2007)
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Figure 7. (Norat 2002)(Hamblin, 2009, McMichael et al., 2007)
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