Climate Agriculture Symposium

Jamaica, July 16, 2015

Content

• Vulnerability Assessment: 2010 - 2011Impact of climate change on Jamaican agriculture & long-term sustainability of the hotel industry supply chain

• Climate Variability and Crops: 2014 – 2015Climate Impacts and Resilience in Caribbean Agriculture: Assessing the consequences of climate change on cocoa and tomato production in Trinidad & Tobago and Jamaica (CIRCA)

• Conclusions for policy makers

Impact of climate change on Jamaican agriculture & long-term sustainability of the hotel industry supply chain

P Läderach, A Eitzinger, A Benedikter, J Gordon, K Rhiney3rd Annual Sustainable Livelihoods Learning Network Conference, Jamaica 2011

Vuln

erab

ility

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive capacity

Scientific approach

Sampling & study zone

ia

Criteria for selecting communities:

• Pre-results of crop-suitability-change

• Different production areas(covering all crops and production systems)

• Farmer is/is not a active supplier of Hotel industry

• Field-work supported by UWI - University of West Indies• 5 focus groups workshops in selected communities:

Douglas Castle – St. Ann / Beacon - St. Elizabeth / Christiana – ManchesterFort George - St. Mary / Dumfries - St. Thomas

• 130 individual surveys with farmers• 200 GPS points collected of participating farms and production locations

(used as crop reference sites for climatic conditions)

FIELD WORK October 2010

Suitability modeling with EcocropEcoCrop, originally by Hijman et al. (2001), was further developed, providing calibration and evaluation procedures (Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2011).

It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation…

…and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…

How does it work?

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) EXPOSURE Suitability change for ginger under progressive climate change

current

Suitabilityin %

2030

2050

Low Sensitivity (high value)

Physical Type of road, material of house, ownershipNatural Water is quite evenly distributed, enough water, sustainable practices on waste management

Medium Sensitivity

High Sensitivity (low value)

Financial credits are available but not accessible (or not used)Social lack of presence of farm-organizationsHuman missing training, don’t keep records

Low Adaptive Capacity (high value)

Natural Distance to water-access, water quality, waste-management (recycling), Type of soil

Medium Adaptive Capacity

Physical Short distance to market, good access to electricity, availability of transportation

Low Adaptive Capacity (low value)

Social missing activities of organizationsFinancial lack of access to credit, indirect marketing channel, missing certificationHuman low access to training, degree of education

SENSITIVITY & ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Socio-economic analysis

It seems as if especially vulnerable subgroups exist behind the data. Further analysis is needed to characterize them.

e.g. marketing channel, ownership of land, education and access to training

VULNERABILITY Site-specific vulnerability profile

HighMediumlow

HighMediumlow

Sensitivity

Adaptive capacity

Low exposure / High Sensitivity / low adaptive capacity

high

medium

low

Exposure

High exposure / medium sensitivity / medium adaptive capacity

Low exposure / medium sensitivity / medium adaptive capacity

… for ginger farmers near Christiana (site-specific)

• Group I (Christiana Potato growers, Ministry of agriculture: Forestry, RADA)• Organize farmers in groups for empowerment, unity & cooperation• Train and educate farmers through dissemination of information to influence behavioral change in best

agricultural practices and use of innovative technology• Quality, quantity and sustainability to enhance long term productivity &viability to maintain standards

and practices that are environmentally friendly

• Group II (Farmers from Manchester)• Change the planting season according to crops. Reap before hurricane season

• Have storage tanks for drought period. Mulching of crops• Rebuild and preserve the soil

• Group III (Farmers from Manchester)• Financing at organizational level to invest in tools for the community and land titles• Soil Management: Test soils (organizations) to better respond to changing climate conditions• Information and training about green housing to produce all year long (RADA, …)

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Training & education

Organization & financing

Adaptation to changing seasons and extreme weather events /

Long term focus on sustainable production

1

2

3

From the base of the supply-chain Christiana

“In the past we installed irrigation systems, but when there is drought, there is still not enough water”Farmers co-operation, Jamaica, St. Elizabeth, Beacon, 2010

Farmers perceptions

“Input costs for vegetable production are very high, this year a heavy rain destroyed in just 3 days all my lettuce” Young farmer, Jamaica, St. Ann, Douglas Castle, 2010

“We have no transportation, the road is bad, a lot of holes, if hagglers (intermediaries) are not coming, we leave it on the field” Farmer, Jamaica, St. James, Summervile, 2010

http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org/impacts-of-climate-change-on-supply-chains-in-guatemala-bogota-and-jamaica/

Read more

Climate Impacts and Resilience in Caribbean Agriculture: Assessing the consequences of

climate change on cocoa and tomato production in Trinidad & Tobago and Jamaica

(CIRCA)

WP2 – Crop-Climate Suitability ModelingAnton Eitzinger, Stephania Carmona, Karolina Argote, Peter Laderach, Andy Jarvis

A.Eitzinger@cgiar.org University of west Indies, January, 2015

Observe climate Model climate

Generation of future climate data: Circulation models from IPCC AR5

Statistical downscaling of climate data (Delta method to downscale)Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A (2010) Downscaling Global Circulation Model Outputs: The Delta Method

Use local meteorological datato improve climate surface for downscaling

Source: Climate Studies Group Mona

Crop-Climate-Variability from historical time-series

Figure 16. Behavior of suitability crops during the 1997-2013 time series for five localities in Jamaica. The categories refer to aptitude levels: Very High (VH)>75%, High (H) >50%, Medium (M) >30%, Low (L) <30%.

Key messages

The islands of Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago may suffer … losses in tomato crop productivity …. expected to have optimal climate conditions for growing cacao … Cocoa is likely to have small suitability reductions, affirming the high resistance of the crop in relation to temperature increases. … the drier areas of the islands will face more severe impacts due to cocoa’s high sensitivity to drought … Crops such as cassava, sweet potato and yam are good diversification alternatives … as a result of shifting climatic conditions their geographic distribution might change in the coming decades.

Policy brief, 2015 (in press)

Assessing the impact of climate change on cocoa and tomato in the Caribbean: the cases of Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago

AbstractTomato is the most widely grown vegetable worldwide, and is considered to be one of the most economically important crops. Cocoa, an essential crop for the livelihoods of large numbers of people around the world, also occupies significant space within agricultural markets. According to FAO, in recent years Caribbean islands such as Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago have obtained an average tomato production of over 1700 tons per hectare. While the overall productivity of cocoa farms is lower (500 - 1000 tons per hectare), the islands’ cocoa production is characterized by its superior quality cocoa ….

Key messages Given expected changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, the islands of Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago may suffer considerable losses

in tomato crop productivity due to a reduction of more than 20% in the area suitable for the crop. In addition to this, there may be reductions in suitable growing areas due to other natural phenomena, such as hurricanes and land loss due to sea level rise.

In 2050 Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago are expected to have near-optimal climate conditions for growing cacao, although not on the top of the main mountains and in drier coastal areas. Cocoa is likely to have small suitability reductions, affirming the high resistance of the crop in relation to temperature increases. However, the drier areas of the islands will face more severe impacts due to cocoa’s high sensitivity to drought.

Crops such as cassava, sweet potato and yam are good diversification alternatives. Their climate suitability in Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago is expected to remain and even increase in the face of climate change.

In 2050 the climate suitability of all crops monitored in this study will increase in certain areas, mainly towards the median altitudinal gradients situated around the high mountains of the islands. As these areas are currently used for forest conservation or the production of other crops with equal economic importance, e.g. coffee, land use pressure is likely to be the result.

http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org/implementing-csa-the-last-mile/

• Identify most promising CSA practices (national prioritization)• Biophysical and economic modeling to assess enabling

environments and social constraints and opportunities for smallholders in a site specific context

• Validate benefits with local agriculture experts• Create feedback loops in the agricultural systems in order to

enable wide-scale adoption of CSA practices and improve agricultural productivity.

Next steps:

Example from East

Africa

Opportunities for out-scaling Climate Smart Agriculture

E-mail: c.navarrete@cgiar.orga.eitzinger@cgiar.org

Questions? Comments?Thank you