• Observationsindicateariseinaveragetemperatureofabout1.3°Cbetween1960and2006.

• Strongvariabilitymakeslong-termprecipitationtrendsdifficulttodetermine,butstudiessuggestanoveralldeclinesince1984,withsignificantyear-to-yearvolatility.

• Majorfloodshavebeenacommonoccurrence,leadingtolossoflifeandpropertyinnumerouspartsofthecountry.RisingseasurfacetemperaturesintheIndianOceaninfluencethemigrationoftheIntertropicalConvergenceZoneandcanfurtherincreasevariabilityinthetiminganddurationofrainfallseasons,andconsequentlycausefrequentdrought.

Projected Weather and ClimateWhileprojectionsforEthiopiavaryacrossclimatemodels,themajorityofclimatemodelssuggestthefollowing:

• Medianannualtemperaturewillcontinuetoincreasethroughthe2090s.

• AlthoughtherearesignificantdiscrepanciesbetweenmodelpredictionsforrainfallformanyareasinAfrica,currentrainfallprojectionsforEthiopiaforthe2060srangefromadecreaseof6 percentbelowtheobserved1970-99averagetoanincreaseof24 percent.

• Mostmodelspredictalargerpercentageofprecipitationfallingduringheavyevents,whichcanincreasetheriskofdisasterssuchasfloodsandlandslides.

KEY SECTOR VULNERABILITIESFood SecurityTheclimateimpactsofgreatestsignificanceforagricultureandfoodsecurityarelikelytobewarmertemperaturesandmorefrequentoccurrenceofdrought.Climatechangemayaffectcropyields,andconsequently,nutritionandhealth.Arecentstudyindicatesthatanincreaseintemperatureof5°CinEastAfricamayleadtoaproductiondeclineofnearly20 percentbythe2090s.Increasedintensityandfrequencyofdroughtcanaffectfoodsecuritythroughdirectimpactsonfoodavailability(e.g.,reducedcropyields,andchangesinthequantityandqualityoflivestockfeedandforage),andthroughindirectimpactsonlivelihoodsandincomethatinturnhaveconsequencesforfoodaccessibility.

Currently,theHornofAfricaisseeingoneofthedriestyearssince1995duetotwoconsecutiveseasonsofsignificantlybelow-averageprecipitation.Thishasledtocropfailures,livestocklosses,andhighlocalcerealprices,whichhaveaffectedfoodavailabilityandaccessibility.Asaresult,theUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment’sFamineEarlyWarningSystemsNetworkhasreferredtothesituationas“themostseverefoodsecurityemergencyintheworldtoday.”

ClimateChangeAdaptationinETHIOPIAOctober2011

SevereweathereventssuchasdroughtsandfloodshavehistoricallyimposedheavycostsinEthiopia.Theprojectedimpactsofclimatechangemayaffecttheconsequencesoftheseevents,andcouldpotentiallyhinderadvancementsinkeydevelopmentareassuchasfoodsecurity,waterresourcesmanagement,health,andeconomicgrowth.Inrecognitionofthisfact,theGovernmentofEthiopiahasinitiatedactivitiestodeterminevulnerabilityandadaptationpriorities,whilethedonorcommunityhasprovidedsupporttofacilitatemainstreamingofadaptationconsiderationsintodevelopmentprocessesandincreaseresilienceintheagricultureandfoodsecuritysector.However,anumberofadaptationneedsremain,includingtheneedformoretechnicalexpertiseinvulnerabilityandadaptationassessmentandimplementationinsectorssuchasagricultureandfoodsecurity,waterresources,andhealth;improvedtechnicalfacilityandtechnologicalcapacitytoprovideaccurateandtimelyweatherandclimateforecasts;astrengthenedinstitutionalframeworkfordealingwithclimatechange;andenhancedcoordination.

CLIMATE IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITYHistoric Weather and Climate

MapofEthiopia.Source:EncyclopediaBritannica

Climate Change Adaptation in ETHIOPIA

Water ResourcesEthiopiahasrelativelyabundantwaterresources,withestimatedmeanannualflowsfromthecountry’s12river/drainagebasinsof111billioncubicmetersandgroundwaterpotentialofapproximately2.6billioncubicmeters.Todate,onlyasmallportionoftheseresourceshasbeendevelopedforsectorssuchashydropower,agriculture,andwatersupplyandsanitation.Asthesesectorsdevelop,demandforwaterislikelytorise.Impactsofclimatechangemayactasanadditionalstressor,affectingthequantityandqualityofavailablewaterresources,particularlyinlow-rainfallareassuchasthelowlands.Climatechangemayalsoexacerbateexistingnon-climatestressessuchasweakwaterresourcesgovernance.Adaptationmeasuressuchasimprovedwaterstoragemayserveasimportantcopingmechanismsandhelptoreducethepotentialimpactsofclimatechange.

HealthCurrentclimatevariabilityadverselyaffectshealthinEthiopia,andclimatechangeislikelytoimposenewstresses,resultinginanumberofdirectandindirectimpacts,summarizedinthetablebelow.Increasedmalnutrition,diarrhea,andmalariahavebeenidentifiedastheimpactsofgreatestsignificance.Higherthannormaltemperaturesassociatedwithclimatechangecanincreasetheincidenceofmalaria,whichmayspreadtoformallyunaffectedhighlandareas.Prevalenceofthediseasehaspreviouslybeenlowintheseareas,andcommunitiesarelikelytobemoresensitive,duetotheirrelativelackofpreviousexposureandlimitedimmunity.

Potential Impacts and Consequences of Climate Change for Health

KEY ECOSYSTEM VULNERABILITIESHighlandsThehighlandareasarecomprisedofthemiddlehighlandswithaltitudesbetween1,500-2,300metersabovesealevel(m.a.s.),andthehighlands,withaltitudesupwardsof2,300m.a.s.Theseecosystemshostarichdiversityoffloraandfauna,includinganumberofendemicspecies,suchasseveralgloballyrecognizedendemicbirdareas.Thehighlandsalsosupportthemajorityofthecountry’shumanpopulation.Thehighpopulationdensityandtheeconomicactivitiesundertakeninthehighlandsareplacingstressonfragilehighlandecosystems.

Climatevariabilityhasalreadybeguntoaffecthighlandareas,withrainfallirregularitiesandassociatedfloodinganddroughtsofgreatestconcern.Forinstance,localizedfloodingbelowhillsidesisawidespreadhazardinthefoothillsofthemountainousareasinnorthwestAmhara,whichcandamageagricultureandecosystems.Predictedchangesinclimatemayincreaseclimaterisksandworsennon-climatestressors,suchassoilproblemsandthepestdamagethatalreadyplaguestheArsi-BaleHighlands.

LowlandsLowlandsconsistprimarilyofthearidlowlandplains.Theseecosystemsandtheresourcestheyprovide,suchasgrazinggrasslandsandfirewoodforhouseholduseandsale,supportthewell-beingandlivelihoodsoftheestimated8millionpastoralistslocatedintheEthiopianportionoftheHornofAfrica.Theselowlandareasarecurrentlyunderpressurefromanumberofnon-climatestressessuchasovergrazing,overexploitation,shiftsawayfromtraditionalmodesofrangelandmanagement,bushencroachment,introductionofinvasivespecies,andpopulationgrowth.

Direct

Indirect(due to disturbances of ecological systems)

• Exposuretothermalextremes,especiallyheatwaves.• Alteredfrequencyand/orintensityofotherextreme

weatherconditions(droughts,floods,storms,etc.).

• Effectsonrangesandactivityofvectorsandparasites.• Alteredlocalecologyofwater-andfood-borne

infectiveagents.• Alteredfood(especiallycrop)productivitydueto

changesinclimate,weather,andassociatedpestsanddiseases.

• Freshwatervulnerability.• Increasedlevelsandbiologicalimpactsofairpollution

includingpollensandspores.• Social,economic,anddemographicdislocationsdue

toadverseclimatechangeimpactsontheeconomy,infrastructure,andresourcesupply.

Impact Mode Impacts Consequences

• Alteredratesofheat-andcold-relatedillness,especiallycardiovascularandrespiratorydiseases.

• Deaths,injuries,anddamagetopublichealthinfrastructure.

• Changeingeographicrangesandincidenceofvectorbornediseases.Forinstance,anincreaseintemperatureof1-2°Ccanshiftpotentialmalariariskareasfromthetraditionaltropicaltotemperatezones.

• Changedincidencesofdiarrheaandinfectiousdiseases.• Regionalmalnutritionandhungerwithconsequent

impairmentofchildgrowthanddevelopmentespeciallyinvulnerablecommunities.

• Increasedriskofvariousinfectiousdiseases(duetomigration,overcrowding,contaminationofdrinkingwater).

• Asthmaandallergicdisorders,otheracuteandchronicrespiratorydisordersanddeaths.

• Widerangeofconsequencesaffectingpublichealth(e.g.mentalhealth,nutritionalimpairment,infectiousdiseases,civilstrife).

CLIMATECHANGEADAPTATIONINETHIOPIA

• InitialNationalCommunication(INC)(2001):Considersmitigationandadaptationandincludesinformationongreenhousegasemissions,potentialmitigationoptions,vulnerabilityassessmentsofkeysectors,possibleadaptationmeasures,andthepolicyandinstitutionalcontextforrespondingtoclimatechange.

• NationalAdaptationProgrammeofAction(NAPA)(2007):Drawsonthemultilateralenvironmentagreementssynergyassessmentreports,theINC,andtwonationalandeightregionalconsultativeworkshopsconductedbytheNationalMeteorologicalAgency(NMA).(Otherrelevantplansstrategiesandpoliciesarelistedintheboxatright.)

NATIONAL STRATEGIES, PLANS AND INSTITUTIONS RELEVANT TO CLIMATE

Adaptation-Relevant Strategies, Plans, and Policies•PlanforAcceleratedandSustainableDevelopmenttoEndPoverty•EnvironmentalPolicyofEthiopia•AgricultureandRuralDevelopmentPolicyandStrategy•NationalAgriculturalResearchPolicyandStrategy•WaterResourcesManagementPolicy•HealthSectorDevelopmentPolicyandProgram•NationalPolicyonDisasterPreventionandPreparedness•NationalPolicyonBiodiversityConservationandResearch•PopulationPolicy•ScienceandTechnologyPolicy

Projectedchangesinclimatemayexacerbatebothnon-climateandclimatestressors.Forinstance,overgrazingandcollectionoffuelwoodcanexposethesoiltoerosion,whichcannegativelyaffectwateravailabilityandaccessibility.Thiscanaffectecosystemservicessuchassoilprotectionandwaterregulation,inturnloweringtheproductivityofotherservicesandproducts.Together,climateandnon-climatestressesmaycontributetolowlanddegradationanddesertification,resultinginadeclineintheresourcebasethatharmslowlandecosystemsandhastenstheneedtodevelopalternativelivelihoodoptions.

Institutional FrameworkTheNAPAprocesswasinitiatedandcoordinatedbytheNMA,thenationalfocalpointfortheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,withoverallguidanceandoversightprovidedbyaSteeringCommittee.TheSteeringCommitteeiscomprisedofmembersfromtheministriesofWaterResources,AgricultureandRuralDevelopment,andFinanceandEconomicDevelopment;agenciesforDisasterPreventionandPreparednessandScienceandTechnology;AddisAbabaUniversity;theInstituteofBiodiversityConservationandResearch;theEthiopianRuralEnergyPromotionandDevelopmentCenter ;andtheChristianReliefandDevelopmentAssociationrepresentingNGOs.TheimplementationofprojectsdescribedintheNAPAistobecoordinatedandledbytherelevantministry.

GOVERNMENT ADAPTATION PRIORITIESTheNAPAdevelopsalistof11projects(listedatright)prioritizedbytheGovernmentofEthiopia,whicharelargelyfocusedondecreasingvulnerabilityinthesectorsofagricultureandfoodsecurity,waterresources,forestry,andhealth.TheWorldBankhasidentifiedtheoverlapsbetweenadaptationprioritiesidentifiedintheNAPAandatnationalandlocalworkshopscarriedoutduringthecourseofitsstudy.Theiranalysishighlightscommon

Priority Adaptation Projects from NAPA•Promotingdrought/cropinsuranceprogram•Strengthening/enhancingdroughtandfloodearlywarningsystems•Developingsmall-scaleirrigationandwaterharvestingschemesinarid,semi-arid,anddrysub-humidareas•Improving/enhancingrangelandresourcesmanagementpracticesinpastoralareas•Community-basedsustainableutilizationandmanagementofwetlands•Buildingcapacityforclimatechangeadaptation•Realizingfoodsecuritythroughamulti-purposelarge-scalewaterdevelopmentprojectinGenale-DawaBasin•Community-basedcarbonsequestrationinRiftValleySystem•Establishinganationalclimateresearchcenter•Strengtheningmalariacontainmentprogramsinselectedareas•Promotingon-farmandhomesteadforestryandagroforestryinarid,semi-arid,anddrysub-humidareas

priorityareassuchasnaturalresourcesrehabilitation,waterharvesting,irrigation,pastoraldevelopment,reforestation,andagriculturalproductivity.

KEY PLAYERS AND INITIATIVESDonor-fundedadaptation-specificactivitieshavetendedtosupportnationalprioritiesthroughmainstreamingadaptationintodevelopmentpolicies,strategies,plans,andinstitutionalframeworks.Theactivitiesuseassessments,reports,andinitiativestostrengthenunderstandingofvulnerabilityandadaptationintheagricultureandfoodsecuritysector.Asthenumberofinitiativescontinuestoproliferate,coordinationwillbecomeincreasinglyimportanttominimizeduplicationofeffortsandenableleveragingofexistingresourcesandachievements.Keyinitiativesinclude:

CLIMATECHANGEADAPTATIONINETHIOPIA

Priority Challenges and Constraints for Addressing Vulnerability and Increasing ResilienceEthiopiafacesanumberofcross-cuttingchallengesandconstraintsinregardtovulnerabilityassessmentandadaptationplanningandimplementation.AsnotedintheNAPA,thesechallengesinclude:

• Lackofresearchanddevelopmentcapacitytoassesstheimpactsandconsequencesofclimatechange.

• Adearthofindividualswithspecializationinvulnerabilityandadaptationassessment,includinginsectorssuchasagriculture,waterresources,andhealth.

• Limitedskilledcapacity,facilities,andtechnologiestoprovideaccurateandtimelyweatherandclimateforecasts.

• Aweakinstitutionalframeworkfordealingwithclimatechange.

• Aneedforimprovedcoordinationandsynergyofadaptationactionsgenerallyandinspecificsectorsatbothnationalandsubnationallevels.

Addressingthesecapacity,institutional,andcoordinationconstraintsandneedswillcontributetoEthiopia’sabilitytocontinuetomoveforwardeffectivelyonimplementationofadaptationsthatsupportlong-termclimate-resilientdevelopment.

KEY SOURCES Boko, M., et al. Africa. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. 2007.

Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Water Resources, National Meteorological Agency (NMA). National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). 2007. [cited 3 August 2011]. Available from: http://unfccc.int/cooperation_support/least_developed_countries_portal/submitted_napas/items/4585.php.

McSweeney, C., New, M., and Lizcano, G. UNDP Country Climate Profiles: Ethiopia. 2008. [cited 3 August 2011]. Available from: http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk/index.html?country=Ethiopia&d1=Reports.

Strzepek, K., et al. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change. 2010. [cited 3 August 2011]. Available from: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/documents/EACC_Ethiopia.pdf.

Thornton, P.K., et al. Agriculture and Food Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. 2010. 369: 117-36.

Title Lead Organization Funding Source

ClimateChangeEnablingActivity(additionalfinancingforcapacitybuildinginpriorityareas)

UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP)

GlobalEnvironmentFacility(GEF)

SupportingIntegratedandComprehensiveApproachestoClimateChangeAdaptationinAfrica-Ethiopia

UNDP GovernmentofJapan

CopingwithDroughtandClimateChange UNDP

RiskAversioninLowIncomeCountries:ExperimentalEvidencefromEthiopia

InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI)

N/A

TheImpactofClimateChangeandAdaptationonFoodProductioninLow-IncomeCountries:EvidencefromtheNileBasin,Ethiopia

IFPRI N/A

GEF:SpecialClimateChangeFund

CLIMATECHANGEADAPTATIONINETHIOPIA

KEY SOURCESBoko, M., et al. Africa. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. 2007.

Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Water Resources, National Meteorological Agency (NMA). National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). 2007. [cited 3 August 2011]. Available from: http://unfccc.int/cooperation_support/least_developed_countries_portal/submitted_napas/items/4585.php.

McSweeney, C., New, M., and Lizcano, G. UNDP Country Climate Profi les: Ethiopia. 2008. [cited 3 August 2011]. Available from: http://country-profi les.geog.ox.ac.uk/index.html?country=Ethiopia&d1=Reports.

Strzepek, K., et al. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change. 2010. [cited 3 August 2011]. Available from: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/fi les/documents/EACC_Ethiopia.pdf.

Thornton, P.K., et al. Agriculture and Food Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. 2010. 369: 117-36.