Post on 01-Jan-2016
Charts for Inflation Report2/2002
-3
-1
1
3
5
1999 2000 2001 2002-3
-1
1
3
5
1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway2) Norges Bank's estimates
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
Chart 1.1 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total1) and distributed by imported consumer goods and domestically produced goods and services2). 12-month rise. Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
1999 2000 2001 20020
1
2
3
4
CPI-AT: CPI adjusted for tax changesCPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI
CPI-AT1)
CPI-ATE1)
Chart 1.2 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 12-month rise. Per cent
-20
-5
10
25
40
1999 2000 2001 2002-20
-5
10
25
40
1) Electricity accounts for 3.3% of the total CPI. Fuel and lubricants account for 4.2% of the total CPI
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Fuel and lubricants
Electricity
Chart 1.3 Consumer prices. Energy products1). 12-month rise. Per cent
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1999 2000 2001 2002-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Imported consumer goodsCars
Clothing and footwear
Chart 1.4 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes. Cars, clothing and footwear and imported consumer goods. 12-month rise. Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1999 2000 2001 20020
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Services with wages as a dominant price factor
House rent
Transport services
CPI-ATE
Chart 1.5 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) by supplier sector. 12-month rise. Per cent
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 200285
90
95
100
105
110
115
1) The import-weighted exchange rate index was revised on 27 May 2002. See www.norges-bank.no ”News archive" for further information.
Source: Norges Bank
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44
(1995=100)
Trade-weighted exchange rate index, TWI (1990=100)
Chart 1.6 Effective NOK exchange rates. Import-weighted exchange rate1) and trade-weighted exchange rate index. A falling curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
0
2
4
6
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
2
4
6
8
Forward rates21 February
1 Three-month money market rates up to end-Q2 (27 June). Three-month forward rates are estimated using four money market rates and five government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 27 June.
Source: Norges Bank
Forward rates 27 June
Chart 1.7 Expectations concerning short-term money market rates.1) Quarterly figures. Per cent
Forward rates25 October
0
1
2
3
4
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
1
2
3
4
Source: Norges Bank
21 February
27 June
Chart 1.8 Forward rate differential against Germany. Percentage points
25 October
112
114
116
118
120
122
124
126
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec112
114
116
118
120
122
124
126
2002
2000
Source: Statistics Norway
2001
Chart 1.9 Goods consumption index. 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume.
0
5
10
15
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020
5
10
15C2 adjusted1)
C2
1) Adjusted for central government transfer of capital to local government in January to repay debt in connection with the state takeover of hospitals.
Source: Norges Bank
Credit to households
Credit to non-financial enterprises
Chart 1.10 Credit from domestic sources (C2). Total and by borrowing sector. 12-month rise. Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
LFS unemployment
1) LFS unemployment: 3-month moving average Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour
Registered unemployed and labour market programmes
Registered unemployed
Chart 1.11 Unemployed (LFS), registered unemployed and persons participating in labour market programmes. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted1)
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
jan 00 jul 00 jan 01 jul 01 jan 02-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
Whole country
Western Norway
Eastern Norway
Central and northern Norway
Southern Norway
Source: Directorate of Labour
Chart 1.12 Change in unemployment on same month previous year. In thousands of persons
Sources: National sources of statistics and EcoWin
Chart 1.13 GDP growth in the US, the euro area and Japan. Percentage change from previous quarter (annualised)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
sep 00 des 00 mar 01 jun 01 sep 01 des 01 mar 02
US Euro area Japan
70
80
90
100
110
jan 01 apr 01 jul 01 okt 01 jan 02 apr 02 jul 0270
80
90
100
110
Long rates
Industrials
Wilshire 5000
Sources: Norges Bank, EcoWin, The Economist and Wilshire Associates
Chart 1.14 Equity prices and long-term interest rates in the US, and prices for industrials (USD). Index, Week 1 in 2001 = 100.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges Bank
Chart 2.1 Quarterly change in US GDP, annualised. Contribution to growth in volume. Per cent Seasonally adjusted
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2001 2002
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10 Pvt consumption
Private investmentGen.govt consumpt and investm.
Net exports Inventories
GDP
0
2
4
6
8
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 010
2
4
6
8
Source: The Federal Reserve
Chart 2.2 US: Household debt-servicing capacity.Interest and principal as a percentage of disposable income
Housing loans
Consumer loans
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges Bank
Chart 2.3 Quarterly change in euro area GDP, annualised. Contribution to growth in volume. Per cent. Seasonally adjusted
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2001 2002
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10 Pvt consumption Investments
Public consumption
Net exports StocksGDP
-20
-10
0
10
20
-20
-10
0
10
20
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Sources: Japanese Ministry of Finance and Ministry of International Trade and Industry
Chart 2.4 Japan: industrial output and exportsPercentage growth compared with same month previous year
Industrial output
Exports
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Chart 2.5 Growth in hourly wages in industry in the US and the euro area. Growth on same quarter previous year. Per cent
US
Euro area
Source: OECD
0
10
20
30
40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
10
20
30
40
Sources: International Petroleum Exchange, Telerate and Norges Bank
Futures prices26 June 2002
Chart 2.6 The oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel Daily figures
IR 2/2002
1) US, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Canada and Italy
Sources: OECD and The Economist
Chart 2.7 Metal prices (level) and industrial output in G7 countries1). 12-month rise. Per cent
-10-8-6-4-202468
10
1993 1995 1997 1999 200150
60
70
80
90
100
110
Metal prices, index (right-hand scale)
G7 industrial output (left-hand scale)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Chart 3.1 Mainland GDP, person-hours and employment. Percentage change from previous year
Source: Statistics Norway
Mainland GDP
Employment Person-hours
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Chart 3.2 Change in structural non-oil budget balance1)
1) Budget balance as a percentage of trend mainland GDP; change on previous year.
Source: Revised National Budget, Ministry of Finance
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Sources: Statistics Norway, the Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
Chart 3.3 Real underlying spending growth in the government budget and growth in mainland GDP. Percentage change from previous year
Mainland GDP
Underlying spending growth
0
2
4
6
8
95 96 97 98 99 00 010
2
4
6
8
Source: Statistics Norway
Revised national accounts figures
Previous national accounts figures
Chart 3.4 Household saving as a percentage of disposable income.
90
110
130
150
170
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 000
3
6
9
12
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.5 Household debt as a percentage of disposable income and household interest expenses after tax as a percentage of cash income
Interest burden(right-hand scale)
Debt(left-hand scale)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200580
90
100
110
120
130
140
Sources: Statistics Norway, TBU and Norges Bank
Local currency
Common currency
Chart 3.6 Relative labour costs in Norwegian manufacturing compared with trading partners. Index: 1970=100
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 3.7 Manufacturing employment, 1970-2001.In 1000s of people employed.
250
300
350
400
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000250
300
350
400
-4
-2
0
2
4
0
2
4
6
8
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
1) Total of registered unemployed and persons participating in labour market programmes
Sources: Statistics Norway, the Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank
Unemployment rate(left-hand scale)
Employed(right-hand scale)
Chart 3.8 Percentage change in employment from previous year and unemployment1) as a percentage of the labour force
64
66
68
70
72
74
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04-4
-2
0
2
4
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Labour force participation(left-hand scale)
Change in LFS labour force (right-hand scale)
Chart 3.9 Percentage change in labour force from previous year, and labour force as a percentage of population aged 16-74 (labour force participation rate).
0
2
4
6
8
1993 1995 1997 1999 20010
2
4
6
8
1) Average for all groups. Including costs of additional vacation days in 2000 and 2001
2) Registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes as a percentage of the labour force
Sources:TBU, Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank
Unemployment rate
Annual wage growth
Chart 4.1 Annual wage growth1) and unemployment rate2). Per cent
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 200066
68
70
72
74
76
78
1) Labour costs as a percentage of value added
2) Result for the year + net interest and financial costs as a share of total assets. Excluding oil companies
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Return on total assets (left-hand scale)
Wage share (right-hand scale)
Chart 4.2 Profitability in manufacturing. Wage share1) and return on total assets2).
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Sources: EcoWin, Datastream, the OECD and Norges Bank
Consumer prices
Producer prices
Chart 4.3 Producer and consumer prices for Norway's trading partners. 12-month rise. Per cent
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Import-weighted exchange rate(1995=100)
Imported consumer goods
Chart 4.4 Import-weighted exchange rate and prices for imported consumer goods adjusted for tax changes. 12-month rise. Per cent
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 03 jul 03 jan 04 jul 04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
Chart 4.5 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total and distributed by imported consumer goods and domestically produced goods and services. 12-month rise. Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 03 jul 03 jan 04 jul 040
1
2
3
4
5
CPI
CPI-ATE
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.6 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 03 jul 03 jan 04 jul 040
1
2
3
4
2.52.5
30% 50% 70% 90%
Chart 4.7 Consumer price inflation1). Projections and uncertainty. 12-month rise. Per cent
1) Adjusted for tax changes and excl. energy products (CPI-ATE).
The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 200485
90
95
100
105
110
115
Source: Norges Bank
Uncovered interest rate parity
Trade-weighted exchange rate index (1990=100)
Chart 4.8 Various scenarios for the trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI)
Average June (95.1)Average last 3
mths (97.1)
0
1
2
3
4
jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 03 jul 03 jan 04 jul 040
1
2
3
4
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE
Chart 4.9 Projected rise in the CPI-ATE assuming that the interest rate follows market expectations, and different assumptions regarding the krone exchange rate. 12-month rise. Per cent
Uncovered interest rate parity
Average June
To annex:
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
2
4
6
8
10
12
Source: Norges Bank
Deposit rate
Overnight rate
3-month money market rate
IR 2/02: 6.5
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 200485
90
95
100
105
110
115
Source: Norges Bank
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44(1995=100)
Trade-weighted exchange rate index, TWI (1990=100)
IR 2/02: 97.1
IR 2/02: 92.5
0
5
10
15
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020
5
10
15
Source: Norges Bank
Credit to households
C2
The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month growth. Per cent
C3 mainland Norway
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
jul 00 sep 00 nov 00 jan 01 mar 01 mai 01 jul 01 sep 01 nov 01 jan 02 mar 02 mai 020,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Source: Norges Bank
CPI
Consumer prices (CPI and CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent
CPI-ATE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1)Theoretical ECU rate up to December 1998
Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank
Euro area1)
US
Japan
3-month rates in the US, the euro area and Japan. Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Source: Statistics Norway
Private consumption
Mainland GDP
Mainland GDP and private consumption. Percentage change from previous year
RAMMEFIGURER:
Why has the krone appreciated? (ArK og TBe)
94
97
100
103
106
109
1121990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
94
97
100
103
106
109
112
1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
Source: Norges Bank
TWI (1990=100)
Chart 1 Effective NOK exchange rate. Trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI)1)
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
2000 2001 2002
94
97
100
103
106
109
112
TWI (right-hand scale)
3-month interest rate differential 3-month
(left-hand scale)
12-month interest rate differential
(left-hand scale)
1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone2) US, euro area, the UK and Sweden
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2 Trade-weighted exchange rate index1) and interest rate differentials against other countries2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 200294
97
100
103
106
109
112
1) A falling curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
Source: Norges Bank
TWI (right-hand scale)
Chart 3 The trade-weighted exchange rate index1) and the global hazard index (GHI)
GHI (left-hand scale)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
94
97
100
103
106
109
112
TWI (right-hand scale)
Chart 4 The trade-weighted exchange rate index1) and the oil price (Brent Blend)
Oil price, USD/barrel(left-hand scale)
1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
Source: Norges Bank
6000700080009000
100001100012000130001400015000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 200290
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130Wilshire 5000 (left-hand
scale)
USD effective exchange rate(right-hand scale)
1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone2) Equity price index consisting of all limited companies with head office in the US for which share prices are quoted. There are currently over 6500 companies.
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 5 Share prices in the US and effective USD exchange rate1). Weekly figures
Box:
Oil price
Source: IMF and Norges Bank
Correlation between the oil price, GDP growth and inflation in industrial countries. Annual figures, 2002 and 2003 IMF projections
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1970 1978 1986 1994 20020
20
40
60
80
100Inflation (left-hand scale)
Real oil price (right-hand scale)
GDP (left-hand scale)
Box:
BRW/KHO
9092949698
100102104106108
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002024681012141618
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norges Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Chart 1 Direct effect of reduced tariff rates
Price index for clothing in CPI (1998=100)(left-hand scale)
Average tariff rate. Per cent (right-hand scale)
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Chart 2 Import shares by country for the 25 largest trading partners, clothing.
EEA/EFTA
Eastern Europe (free trade agreements with EFTA)
Developing countries
US
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Sources: Statistics Norway, Datastream and Norges Bank
Chart 3 Foreign producer prices for clothing. Indices, 1980 Q1 = 100
Producer prices excluding price level effects
Producer prices incl. price level effects
-8-6-4-202468
1012
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000-8-6-4-2024681012
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4 The fit of the model.Rise in prices for clothing in the CPI
Actual change in prices
Change in prices from the model
RAMMEFIGURER:
How does the krone exchange rate influence the CPI
-0,6
-0,5
-0,4
-0,3
-0,2
-0,1
-0
0,1
0,2
Source: Norges Bank
Sub-index modelRIMINI
Effects on the rise in consumer prices of a lasting appreciation of 5 per cent of the import-weighted krone exchange rate. Percentage points
Year 2 Year 3Year 1