Charts for Inflation Report 2/2002. 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures...

Charts for Inflation Report2/2002

-3

-1

1

3

5

1999 2000 2001 2002-3

-1

1

3

5

1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway2) Norges Bank's estimates

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Goods and services produced in Norway

CPI-ATE

Imported consumer goods

Chart 1.1 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total1) and distributed by imported consumer goods and domestically produced goods and services2). 12-month rise. Per cent

0

1

2

3

4

1999 2000 2001 20020

1

2

3

4

CPI-AT: CPI adjusted for tax changesCPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway


CPI

CPI-AT1)

CPI-ATE1)

Chart 1.2 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 12-month rise. Per cent

-20

-5

10

25

40

1999 2000 2001 2002-20

-5

10

25

40

1) Electricity accounts for 3.3% of the total CPI. Fuel and lubricants account for 4.2% of the total CPI


Fuel and lubricants

Electricity

Chart 1.3 Consumer prices. Energy products1). 12-month rise. Per cent

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1999 2000 2001 2002-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6


Imported consumer goodsCars

Clothing and footwear

Chart 1.4 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes. Cars, clothing and footwear and imported consumer goods. 12-month rise. Per cent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1999 2000 2001 20020

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Services with wages as a dominant price factor

House rent

Transport services

CPI-ATE

Chart 1.5 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) by supplier sector. 12-month rise. Per cent

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 200285

90

95

100

105

110

115

1) The import-weighted exchange rate index was revised on 27 May 2002. See www.norges-bank.no ”News archive" for further information.

Source: Norges Bank

Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44

(1995=100)

Trade-weighted exchange rate index, TWI (1990=100)

Chart 1.6 Effective NOK exchange rates. Import-weighted exchange rate1) and trade-weighted exchange rate index. A falling curve denotes an appreciation of the krone

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 20040

2

4

6

8

Forward rates21 February

1 Three-month money market rates up to end-Q2 (27 June). Three-month forward rates are estimated using four money market rates and five government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 27 June.

Source: Norges Bank

Forward rates 27 June

Chart 1.7 Expectations concerning short-term money market rates.1) Quarterly figures. Per cent

Forward rates25 October

0

1

2

3

4

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090

1

2

3

4

Source: Norges Bank

21 February

27 June

Chart 1.8 Forward rate differential against Germany. Percentage points

25 October

112

114

116

118

120

122

124

126

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec112

114

116

118

120

122

124

126

2002

2000

Source: Statistics Norway

2001

Chart 1.9 Goods consumption index. 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume.

0

5

10

15

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020

5

10

15C2 adjusted1)

C2

1) Adjusted for central government transfer of capital to local government in January to repay debt in connection with the state takeover of hospitals.

Source: Norges Bank

Credit to households

Credit to non-financial enterprises

Chart 1.10 Credit from domestic sources (C2). Total and by borrowing sector. 12-month rise. Per cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

LFS unemployment

1) LFS unemployment: 3-month moving average Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour

Registered unemployed and labour market programmes

Registered unemployed

Chart 1.11 Unemployed (LFS), registered unemployed and persons participating in labour market programmes. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted1)

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

jan 00 jul 00 jan 01 jul 01 jan 02-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

Whole country

Western Norway

Eastern Norway

Central and northern Norway

Southern Norway

Source: Directorate of Labour

Chart 1.12 Change in unemployment on same month previous year. In thousands of persons

Sources: National sources of statistics and EcoWin

Chart 1.13 GDP growth in the US, the euro area and Japan. Percentage change from previous quarter (annualised)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

sep 00 des 00 mar 01 jun 01 sep 01 des 01 mar 02

US Euro area Japan

70

80

90

100

110

jan 01 apr 01 jul 01 okt 01 jan 02 apr 02 jul 0270

80

90

100

110

Long rates

Industrials

Wilshire 5000

Sources: Norges Bank, EcoWin, The Economist and Wilshire Associates

Chart 1.14 Equity prices and long-term interest rates in the US, and prices for industrials (USD). Index, Week 1 in 2001 = 100.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges Bank

Chart 2.1 Quarterly change in US GDP, annualised. Contribution to growth in volume. Per cent Seasonally adjusted

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2001 2002

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10 Pvt consumption

Private investmentGen.govt consumpt and investm.

Net exports Inventories

GDP

0

2

4

6

8

85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 010

2

4

6

8

Source: The Federal Reserve

Chart 2.2 US: Household debt-servicing capacity.Interest and principal as a percentage of disposable income

Housing loans

Consumer loans

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges Bank

Chart 2.3 Quarterly change in euro area GDP, annualised. Contribution to growth in volume. Per cent. Seasonally adjusted

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2001 2002

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10 Pvt consumption Investments

Public consumption

Net exports StocksGDP

-20

-10

0

10

20

-20

-10

0

10

20

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Sources: Japanese Ministry of Finance and Ministry of International Trade and Industry

Chart 2.4 Japan: industrial output and exportsPercentage growth compared with same month previous year

Industrial output

Exports

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Chart 2.5 Growth in hourly wages in industry in the US and the euro area. Growth on same quarter previous year. Per cent

US

Euro area

Source: OECD

0

10

20

30

40

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040

10

20

30

40

Sources: International Petroleum Exchange, Telerate and Norges Bank

Futures prices26 June 2002

Chart 2.6 The oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel Daily figures

IR 2/2002

1) US, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Canada and Italy

Sources: OECD and The Economist

Chart 2.7 Metal prices (level) and industrial output in G7 countries1). 12-month rise. Per cent

-10-8-6-4-202468

10

1993 1995 1997 1999 200150

60

70

80

90

100

110

Metal prices, index (right-hand scale)

G7 industrial output (left-hand scale)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Chart 3.1 Mainland GDP, person-hours and employment. Percentage change from previous year


Mainland GDP

Employment Person-hours

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Chart 3.2 Change in structural non-oil budget balance1)

1) Budget balance as a percentage of trend mainland GDP; change on previous year.

Source: Revised National Budget, Ministry of Finance

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

90 92 94 96 98 00 02

Sources: Statistics Norway, the Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

Chart 3.3 Real underlying spending growth in the government budget and growth in mainland GDP. Percentage change from previous year

Mainland GDP

Underlying spending growth

0

2

4

6

8

95 96 97 98 99 00 010

2

4

6

8


Revised national accounts figures

Previous national accounts figures

Chart 3.4 Household saving as a percentage of disposable income.

90

110

130

150

170

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 000

3

6

9

12

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 3.5 Household debt as a percentage of disposable income and household interest expenses after tax as a percentage of cash income

Interest burden(right-hand scale)

Debt(left-hand scale)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200580

90

100

110

120

130

140

Sources: Statistics Norway, TBU and Norges Bank

Local currency

Common currency

Chart 3.6 Relative labour costs in Norwegian manufacturing compared with trading partners. Index: 1970=100


Chart 3.7 Manufacturing employment, 1970-2001.In 1000s of people employed.

250

300

350

400

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000250

300

350

400

-4

-2

0

2

4

0

2

4

6

8

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

1) Total of registered unemployed and persons participating in labour market programmes

Sources: Statistics Norway, the Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank

Unemployment rate(left-hand scale)

Employed(right-hand scale)

Chart 3.8 Percentage change in employment from previous year and unemployment1) as a percentage of the labour force

64

66

68

70

72

74

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04-4

-2

0

2

4


Labour force participation(left-hand scale)

Change in LFS labour force (right-hand scale)

Chart 3.9 Percentage change in labour force from previous year, and labour force as a percentage of population aged 16-74 (labour force participation rate).

0

2

4

6

8

1993 1995 1997 1999 20010

2

4

6

8

1) Average for all groups. Including costs of additional vacation days in 2000 and 2001

2) Registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes as a percentage of the labour force

Sources:TBU, Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank

Unemployment rate

Annual wage growth

Chart 4.1 Annual wage growth1) and unemployment rate2). Per cent

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 200066

68

70

72

74

76

78

1) Labour costs as a percentage of value added

2) Result for the year + net interest and financial costs as a share of total assets. Excluding oil companies


Return on total assets (left-hand scale)

Wage share (right-hand scale)

Chart 4.2 Profitability in manufacturing. Wage share1) and return on total assets2).

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Sources: EcoWin, Datastream, the OECD and Norges Bank

Consumer prices

Producer prices

Chart 4.3 Producer and consumer prices for Norway's trading partners. 12-month rise. Per cent

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-9

-6

-3

0

3

6


Import-weighted exchange rate(1995=100)


Chart 4.4 Import-weighted exchange rate and prices for imported consumer goods adjusted for tax changes. 12-month rise. Per cent

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-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 03 jul 03 jan 04 jul 04


Goods and services produced in Norway

CPI-ATE


Chart 4.5 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total and distributed by imported consumer goods and domestically produced goods and services. 12-month rise. Per cent

0

1

2

3

4

5


1

2

3

4

5

CPI

CPI-ATE


Chart 4.6 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent

0

1

2

3

4


1

2

3

4

2.52.5

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 4.7 Consumer price inflation1). Projections and uncertainty. 12-month rise. Per cent

1) Adjusted for tax changes and excl. energy products (CPI-ATE).

The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation.


85

90

95

100

105

110

115

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 200485

90

95

100

105

110

115

Source: Norges Bank

Uncovered interest rate parity

Trade-weighted exchange rate index (1990=100)

Chart 4.8 Various scenarios for the trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI)

Average June (95.1)Average last 3

mths (97.1)

0

1

2

3

4


1

2

3

4


CPI-ATE

Chart 4.9 Projected rise in the CPI-ATE assuming that the interest rate follows market expectations, and different assumptions regarding the krone exchange rate. 12-month rise. Per cent

Uncovered interest rate parity

Average June

To annex:

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040

2

4

6

8

10

12

Source: Norges Bank

Deposit rate

Overnight rate

3-month money market rate

IR 2/02: 6.5

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 200485

90

95

100

105

110

115

Source: Norges Bank

Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44(1995=100)

Trade-weighted exchange rate index, TWI (1990=100)

IR 2/02: 97.1

IR 2/02: 92.5

0

5

10

15

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020

5

10

15

Source: Norges Bank

Credit to households

C2

The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month growth. Per cent

C3 mainland Norway

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

jul 00 sep 00 nov 00 jan 01 mar 01 mai 01 jul 01 sep 01 nov 01 jan 02 mar 02 mai 020,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Source: Norges Bank

CPI

Consumer prices (CPI and CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent

CPI-ATE

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1)Theoretical ECU rate up to December 1998

Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank

Euro area1)

US

Japan

3-month rates in the US, the euro area and Japan. Per cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


Private consumption

Mainland GDP

Mainland GDP and private consumption. Percentage change from previous year

RAMMEFIGURER:

Why has the krone appreciated? (ArK og TBe)

94

97

100

103

106

109

1121990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

94

97

100

103

106

109

112

1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone

Source: Norges Bank

TWI (1990=100)

Chart 1 Effective NOK exchange rate. Trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI)1)

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

2000 2001 2002

94

97

100

103

106

109

112

TWI (right-hand scale)

3-month interest rate differential 3-month

(left-hand scale)

12-month interest rate differential

(left-hand scale)

1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone2) US, euro area, the UK and Sweden

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 2 Trade-weighted exchange rate index1) and interest rate differentials against other countries2)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 200294

97

100

103

106

109

112

1) A falling curve denotes an appreciation of the krone

Source: Norges Bank


Chart 3 The trade-weighted exchange rate index1) and the global hazard index (GHI)

GHI (left-hand scale)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

94

97

100

103

106

109

112


Chart 4 The trade-weighted exchange rate index1) and the oil price (Brent Blend)

Oil price, USD/barrel(left-hand scale)

1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone

Source: Norges Bank

6000700080009000

100001100012000130001400015000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 200290

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130Wilshire 5000 (left-hand

scale)

USD effective exchange rate(right-hand scale)

1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone2) Equity price index consisting of all limited companies with head office in the US for which share prices are quoted. There are currently over 6500 companies.

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 5 Share prices in the US and effective USD exchange rate1). Weekly figures

Box:

Oil price

Source: IMF and Norges Bank

Correlation between the oil price, GDP growth and inflation in industrial countries. Annual figures, 2002 and 2003 IMF projections

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1970 1978 1986 1994 20020

20

40

60

80

100Inflation (left-hand scale)

Real oil price (right-hand scale)

GDP (left-hand scale)

Box:

BRW/KHO

9092949698

100102104106108

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002024681012141618

Sources: Statistics Norway, Norges Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Chart 1 Direct effect of reduced tariff rates

Price index for clothing in CPI (1998=100)(left-hand scale)

Average tariff rate. Per cent (right-hand scale)

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Chart 2 Import shares by country for the 25 largest trading partners, clothing.

EEA/EFTA

Eastern Europe (free trade agreements with EFTA)

Developing countries

US


100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Sources: Statistics Norway, Datastream and Norges Bank

Chart 3 Foreign producer prices for clothing. Indices, 1980 Q1 = 100

Producer prices excluding price level effects

Producer prices incl. price level effects

-8-6-4-202468

1012

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000-8-6-4-2024681012


Chart 4 The fit of the model.Rise in prices for clothing in the CPI

Actual change in prices

Change in prices from the model

RAMMEFIGURER:

How does the krone exchange rate influence the CPI

-0,6

-0,5

-0,4

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

-0

0,1

0,2

Source: Norges Bank

Sub-index modelRIMINI

Effects on the rise in consumer prices of a lasting appreciation of 5 per cent of the import-weighted krone exchange rate. Percentage points

Year 2 Year 3Year 1

Charts for Inflation Report 2/2002. 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures...

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Transcript of Charts for Inflation Report 2/2002. 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures...