CHARLES WAYNE

CONSULTING, INC.

The State of Orlando’sThe State of Orlando’s

2011 & BEYOND

Rental Apartment MarketRental Apartment Market

PRESENTED BY:DARYL SPRADLEY

RECOVERY RECESSION

OVER SUPPLYEXPANSION

DEVELOPMENT CYCLES

POPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH

20,60019,20025,800

39,200

53,200

68,900

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

JOB GROWTHJOB GROWTH

25,40023,000 23,600

31,600

41,000

SOURCE: UCF, Institute of Economic Competitiveness

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

JOB GROWTHJOB GROWTHOVER SAME MONTH OF PRIOR YEAROVER SAME MONTH OF PRIOR YEAR

2008 2009 2010 2011

SF & MF UNIT CLOSINGS SF & MF UNIT CLOSINGS 17,900

13,400

4,600

2,6501,700

900

11,400

6,800

2,950 3,250 3,150

1,348

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011/Q1-2

MF SF

SF & MF CLOSING PRICES SF & MF CLOSING PRICES

$374,000$372,900

$321,400

$247,700 $232,900$231,100

$228,000$247,300 $248,000

$169,300 $161,800$155,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011/Q1-2

SF MF

2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Apts SF MF

ANNUAL DEMANDANNUAL DEMANDAPARTMENTS ~ SF ~ MF: 2011 - 2015APARTMENTS ~ SF ~ MF: 2011 - 2015

APARTMENT MARKET DRIVERSAPARTMENT MARKET DRIVERS

Historically low levels of new apartment construction

High move-ins due to foreclosuresEvidence of “unbundling”Weak consumer confidenceRenters by choice

% RENTER DEMAND BY TYPE% RENTER DEMAND BY TYPE

SF

28%

1+ Attached

5%2-4 Units13%

5+ Units

50%

Mobile Homes4%

590 596 592

563 567

604623 623 629

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

APARTMENT COMPLEXES

150,100151,000147,200

134,500137,000

144,700149,700151,200152300

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

RENTABLE UNITS

APARTMENT UNITSAPARTMENT UNITSUNDER CONSTRUCTIONUNDER CONSTRUCTION 13,000

8,200

5,6005,8004,700

3,9003,800

5,600

3,7003,200

1,5001,900

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

APARTMENT OCCUPANCYAPARTMENT OCCUPANCY

91.6%

94.8%96.1%

94.1%

90.8%89.6%

88.2%

91.1%

93.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

SUPPLY / DEMAND DYNAMICSSUPPLY / DEMAND DYNAMICS

5,286

2,356

5,684

4,029

3,699

3,169

1,526

1,929

08/Q3 09/Q3 10/Q3 11/Q3

Annual Absorption Units Under Construction

VACANCY vs UNEMPLOYMENTVACANCY vs UNEMPLOYMENT

3/903/91

3/923/93

3/943/95

3/963/97

3/983/99

3/003/01

3/023/03

3/043/05

3/063/07

3/083/09

3/103/11

0

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

Unemploym ent Apt Vacancy

APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS

LAKE MARY ~ HEATHROW

TOD STATIONS ZONES

EAST ORLANDO ~ UCF

SW ORANGE ~ HORIZON WEST

OSCEOLA COUNTY

LAKE NONA ~ MEDICAL CITY

TOPTOPPERFORMERSPERFORMERS

SuburbanSuburbanStyleStyle

ProjectsProjects

$1.05 - $1.20

TOPTOPPERFORMERSPERFORMERS

UrbanUrbanLifestyleLifestyleProjectsProjects

$1.20 - $2.00+

URBAN RENTERSURBAN RENTERS

TRENDSTRENDS

Land Supply ? Land Values? Rent Growth? Rent Incentives? Trendy Units? Hot Amenities? Urban Town Centers? TOD Developments?

?

CHARLES WAYNE CONSULTING, INC.

www.CharlesWayneConsulting.com

DSpradley@CharlesWayne.com