CHARLES WAYNE CONSULTING, INC. The State of Orlando’s 2011 & BEYOND Rental Apartment Market...
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CHARLES WAYNE CONSULTING, INC. The State of Orlando’s The State of Orlando’s 2011 & BEYOND Rental Apartment Market Rental Apartment Market PRESENTED BY: DARYL SPRADLEY
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Transcript of CHARLES WAYNE CONSULTING, INC. The State of Orlando’s 2011 & BEYOND Rental Apartment Market...
CHARLES WAYNE
CONSULTING, INC.
The State of Orlando’sThe State of Orlando’s
2011 & BEYOND
Rental Apartment MarketRental Apartment Market
PRESENTED BY:DARYL SPRADLEY
RECOVERY RECESSION
OVER SUPPLYEXPANSION
DEVELOPMENT CYCLES
POPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH
20,60019,20025,800
39,200
53,200
68,900
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
JOB GROWTHJOB GROWTH
25,40023,000 23,600
31,600
41,000
SOURCE: UCF, Institute of Economic Competitiveness
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
JOB GROWTHJOB GROWTHOVER SAME MONTH OF PRIOR YEAROVER SAME MONTH OF PRIOR YEAR
2008 2009 2010 2011
SF & MF UNIT CLOSINGS SF & MF UNIT CLOSINGS 17,900
13,400
4,600
2,6501,700
900
11,400
6,800
2,950 3,250 3,150
1,348
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011/Q1-2
MF SF
SF & MF CLOSING PRICES SF & MF CLOSING PRICES
$374,000$372,900
$321,400
$247,700 $232,900$231,100
$228,000$247,300 $248,000
$169,300 $161,800$155,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011/Q1-2
SF MF
2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Apts SF MF
ANNUAL DEMANDANNUAL DEMANDAPARTMENTS ~ SF ~ MF: 2011 - 2015APARTMENTS ~ SF ~ MF: 2011 - 2015
APARTMENT MARKET DRIVERSAPARTMENT MARKET DRIVERS
Historically low levels of new apartment construction
High move-ins due to foreclosuresEvidence of “unbundling”Weak consumer confidenceRenters by choice
% RENTER DEMAND BY TYPE% RENTER DEMAND BY TYPE
SF
28%
1+ Attached
5%2-4 Units13%
5+ Units
50%
Mobile Homes4%
590 596 592
563 567
604623 623 629
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
APARTMENT COMPLEXES
150,100151,000147,200
134,500137,000
144,700149,700151,200152300
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
RENTABLE UNITS
APARTMENT UNITSAPARTMENT UNITSUNDER CONSTRUCTIONUNDER CONSTRUCTION 13,000
8,200
5,6005,8004,700
3,9003,800
5,600
3,7003,200
1,5001,900
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
APARTMENT OCCUPANCYAPARTMENT OCCUPANCY
91.6%
94.8%96.1%
94.1%
90.8%89.6%
88.2%
91.1%
93.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SUPPLY / DEMAND DYNAMICSSUPPLY / DEMAND DYNAMICS
5,286
2,356
5,684
4,029
3,699
3,169
1,526
1,929
08/Q3 09/Q3 10/Q3 11/Q3
Annual Absorption Units Under Construction
VACANCY vs UNEMPLOYMENTVACANCY vs UNEMPLOYMENT
3/903/91
3/923/93
3/943/95
3/963/97
3/983/99
3/003/01
3/023/03
3/043/05
3/063/07
3/083/09
3/103/11
0
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
Unemploym ent Apt Vacancy
APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS
LAKE MARY ~ HEATHROW
TOD STATIONS ZONES
EAST ORLANDO ~ UCF
SW ORANGE ~ HORIZON WEST
OSCEOLA COUNTY
LAKE NONA ~ MEDICAL CITY
TOPTOPPERFORMERSPERFORMERS
SuburbanSuburbanStyleStyle
ProjectsProjects
$1.05 - $1.20
TOPTOPPERFORMERSPERFORMERS
UrbanUrbanLifestyleLifestyleProjectsProjects
$1.20 - $2.00+
URBAN RENTERSURBAN RENTERS
TRENDSTRENDS
Land Supply ? Land Values? Rent Growth? Rent Incentives? Trendy Units? Hot Amenities? Urban Town Centers? TOD Developments?
?
