Post on 16-Dec-2015
Can Solar Energy Replace Oil?
The PretendersIEA, EIA
Shell, BP
Saudi Aramco
Lynch, Adelman
Yergin
Lovins
The Pretenders (closer to home)
“The Commission does not embrace the view that world oil production has peaked —
The National Commission on Energy Policy
The Hubbert Peak
We know it’s coming … but what can we do about it?
A flurry of books on the subject …
www.HubbertPeak.com/Library
Hubbert's Peak
“At the moment, solar and wind power are developing in specialized areas. Neither is an immediate, large-scale solution to the energy problem.”
Kenneth S. Deffeyes
www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2
Beyond Oil
“Solar electrical generation is not yet competitive for large-scale facilities... To my surprise, solar cells to produce 60 watts cost $1,000.”
Kenneth S. Deffeyes
www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2
The Party's Over
“Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.”
Richard Heinberg
www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2
The End of Oil“Solar energy technology 'is still too
expensive by a factor of four to compete with nuclear and by a factor of three to compete with natural gas,' says Paul Maycock...
“Solar faces two related obstacles -- prohibitive costs and a [bad] reputation...”
Paul Roberts
www.pvenergy.com
“But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and water -- could never produce enough energy to replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel the West is accustomed to consuming now.”
Pierre Chomat
Oil Addiction: The World in Peril
www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
Global Solar Energy BalanceSolar Energy Input (TeraWatts)
178,000
Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000
Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000
Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000
Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100
Total Energy Used by Human Society 10
Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5
Total Human Food Energy 0.6
www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
Oil, Jihad & Destiny
“Solar power technology, however, is still in the stone age.”
Ronald R. Cooke
www.HubbertPeak.com/Youngquist
The Long Emergency
“Active solar power ... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel…
“Alternative energy sources ... are … implausible … without the subsidy of oil. The only remaining alternative is nuclear energy.”
James Howard Kunstler
www.HubbertPeak.com/nuclear
Over a Barrel
“... The amount of solar energy that falls on a car yields very marginal performance.
“Current technology for solar-generated electricity results in costly power.”
Tom Mast
www.SolaREvolution.com
I think they´re trying to tell us something …
But wait….
Economics is an instrument of Policy
The Energy Cost of Energy3% decline per year
Annual contribution from alternate energy source
10075
Cumulative new energy from
investment
Useful Lifetime 25 Years
Net Energy Analysis
www.HubbertPeak.com/Modeling
The Energy Cost of EnergyA
vaila
ble
(n
et)
En
erg
y af
ter
Inve
stm
ent
Cumulative new energy from
investment
100 7585
60 Net Energy Analysis
www.HubbertPeak.com/Modeling
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 0 10 20 30 40
Time
Consequence of Delayed Investment
begin investment before decline
Net Energy Production
Begin investment during decline
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
Thermodynamics of Coal
Plus…• Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land• Water contamination• People displaced• Extraction uses oil
?
Thermodynamics of Oil
It depends …• Pennsylvania?• Saudi Arabia?• Off-shore?
Plus• Ravaged land/oceans• Greenhouse gases• Water contamination?
Thermodynamics of Tar Sands
Plus…• Greenhouse gases• Ravaged land• Water contamination• Extraction uses
natural gas
Thermodynamics of Nuclear
?
Plus …• Depletion • Low grade ores
→ Greenhouse gases to process
• Wastes guarded for 10,000+ years
… How do we value a 1,000(?) year wasteland?
Thermodynamics of Hydrogen
A possible solution for special applications?
Motivations?• Promote nuclear?• Promote natural gas?• Deliberate distraction?• Earnest ignorance?
Thermodynamics of PV
• EROI: 5 years
• Life: 50 years
Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV
• EROI: 6 months
• Life: 25 years
Thermodynamics of Wind
• EROI: 3 months
• Life: 25 years
Thermodynamics vs. Economics
Policy can´t defeat Mother Nature.
… in the long run …
Thermo-dynamics wins!
Solar Economics: A Brief History
• Thomas Edison• Bucky Fuller • Hazel Henderson• Hermann Scheer• Richard Smalley
Thomas Edison
“I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”
(1847-1931)
www.ThomasEdison.com
Bucky Fuller
“More with Less”
1966
www.bfi.org
Hazel Henderson
“The US oil, coal and automobile lobbies are still trying to hold back the future information-based, Solar Age. They should start investing more in this cleaner, greener future.”
1989
www.environomics.org
Colin Campbell
“Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is
serious production.”
1996
www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell
Hermann Scheer
“Solar technologies are … potentially the
most economic solution.”
2004
www.HubbertPeak.com/Scheer
Richard Smalley
“Think TeraWatts”
2004
Smalley.Rice.edu → Our Energy Challenge
Solar Industry Response?
Goal 50% US electricity by 2025
Target 200 gW by 2030 = 10%
How? • Federal government
procurement $100 m/year• R&D investment $250 m/year
by 2010• “Enact, modify, establish,
boost, support, increase, strengthen, grow…”
Swenson´s LawTo avoid deprivation
resulting from the exhaustion of non-renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion.
The conclusion is simple:
We are not doing enough.
To spend our depleting energy capital resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (EROI) of the alternatives.
Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will we choose?
Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?
Yes!
Think TeraWatts