Can Solar Energy Replace Oil?

The PretendersIEA, EIA

Shell, BP

Saudi Aramco

Lynch, Adelman

Yergin

Lovins

The Pretenders (closer to home)

“The Commission does not embrace the view that world oil production has peaked —

The National Commission on Energy Policy

The Hubbert Peak

We know it’s coming … but what can we do about it?

A flurry of books on the subject …

www.HubbertPeak.com/Library

Hubbert's Peak

“At the moment, solar and wind power are developing in specialized areas. Neither is an immediate, large-scale solution to the energy problem.”

Kenneth S. Deffeyes

www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2

Beyond Oil

“Solar electrical generation is not yet competitive for large-scale facilities... To my surprise, solar cells to produce 60 watts cost $1,000.”

Kenneth S. Deffeyes

www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2

The Party's Over

“Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.”

Richard Heinberg

www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2

The End of Oil“Solar energy technology 'is still too

expensive by a factor of four to compete with nuclear and by a factor of three to compete with natural gas,' says Paul Maycock...

“Solar faces two related obstacles -- prohibitive costs and a [bad] reputation...”

Paul Roberts

www.pvenergy.com

“But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and water -- could never produce enough energy to replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel the West is accustomed to consuming now.”

Pierre Chomat

Oil Addiction: The World in Peril

www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

Global Solar Energy BalanceSolar Energy Input (TeraWatts)

178,000

Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000

Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000

Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000

Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100

Total Energy Used by Human Society 10

Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5

Total Human Food Energy 0.6

www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

Oil, Jihad & Destiny

“Solar power technology, however, is still in the stone age.”

Ronald R. Cooke

www.HubbertPeak.com/Youngquist

The Long Emergency

“Active solar power ... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel…

“Alternative energy sources ... are … implausible … without the subsidy of oil. The only remaining alternative is nuclear energy.”

James Howard Kunstler

www.HubbertPeak.com/nuclear

Over a Barrel

“... The amount of solar energy that falls on a car yields very marginal performance.

“Current technology for solar-generated electricity results in costly power.”

Tom Mast

www.SolaREvolution.com

I think they´re trying to tell us something …

But wait….

Economics is an instrument of Policy

The Energy Cost of Energy3% decline per year

Annual contribution from alternate energy source

10075

Cumulative new energy from

investment

Useful Lifetime 25 Years

Net Energy Analysis

www.HubbertPeak.com/Modeling

The Energy Cost of EnergyA

vaila

ble

(n

et)

En

erg

y af

ter

Inve

stm

ent

Cumulative new energy from

investment

100 7585

60 Net Energy Analysis

www.HubbertPeak.com/Modeling

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 0 10 20 30 40

Time

Consequence of Delayed Investment

begin investment before decline

Net Energy Production

Begin investment during decline

www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

Thermodynamics of Coal

Plus…• Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land• Water contamination• People displaced• Extraction uses oil

?

Thermodynamics of Oil

It depends …• Pennsylvania?• Saudi Arabia?• Off-shore?

Plus• Ravaged land/oceans• Greenhouse gases• Water contamination?

Thermodynamics of Tar Sands

Plus…• Greenhouse gases• Ravaged land• Water contamination• Extraction uses

natural gas

Thermodynamics of Nuclear

?

Plus …• Depletion • Low grade ores

→ Greenhouse gases to process

• Wastes guarded for 10,000+ years

… How do we value a 1,000(?) year wasteland?

Thermodynamics of Hydrogen

A possible solution for special applications?

Motivations?• Promote nuclear?• Promote natural gas?• Deliberate distraction?• Earnest ignorance?

Thermodynamics of PV

• EROI: 5 years

• Life: 50 years

Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV

• EROI: 6 months

• Life: 25 years

Thermodynamics of Wind

• EROI: 3 months

• Life: 25 years

Thermodynamics vs. Economics

Policy can´t defeat Mother Nature.

… in the long run …

Thermo-dynamics wins!

Solar Economics: A Brief History

• Thomas Edison• Bucky Fuller • Hazel Henderson• Hermann Scheer• Richard Smalley

Thomas Edison

“I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

(1847-1931)

www.ThomasEdison.com

Bucky Fuller

“More with Less”

1966

www.bfi.org

Hazel Henderson

“The US oil, coal and automobile lobbies are still trying to hold back the future information-based, Solar Age.  They should start investing more in this cleaner, greener future.”

1989

www.environomics.org

Colin Campbell

“Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is

serious production.”

1996

www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell

Hermann Scheer

“Solar technologies are … potentially the

most economic solution.”

2004

www.HubbertPeak.com/Scheer

Richard Smalley

“Think TeraWatts”

2004

Smalley.Rice.edu → Our Energy Challenge

Solar Industry Response?

Goal 50% US electricity by 2025

Target 200 gW by 2030 = 10%

How? • Federal government

procurement $100 m/year• R&D investment $250 m/year

by 2010• “Enact, modify, establish,

boost, support, increase, strengthen, grow…”

Swenson´s LawTo avoid deprivation

resulting from the exhaustion of non-renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion.

The conclusion is simple:

We are not doing enough.

To spend our depleting energy capital resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (EROI) of the alternatives.

Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will we choose?

Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?

Yes!

Think TeraWatts