Post on 05-Apr-2018
© OECD/IEA 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014
Buildings Policy, Modeling Considerations, and Collaboration Opportunities
Marc LaFrance
ETP 2016 Workshop
Paris, 29 October 2014
© OECD/IEA 2014
Importance of Buildings Sector
Largest end-use sector
1/3 carbon emissions
50% of electricity
Major portion of GDP
Opportunities/challenges:
• 75% - 90% of OECD building stock still in service by 2050
• Large population growth in developing world will drive new floor area that needs to be efficient (2.5 billion more by 2050)
Industry31%
Transport30%
Other sectors4%
4%11%
22%
28%
5%
30%
Buildings35%
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Electricity
Commercial heat
Renewables
© OECD/IEA 2014
Priority Recommendations – All Related to Urban
Note: Recommendations limited to top two for technology and policy, all items could be relevant for most countries. Red indicates immediate priority, while gold indicates second priority.
ASE
AN
Bra
zil
Ch
ina
Euro
pe
an
Un
ion
Ind
ia
Mex
ico
Ru
ssia
Sou
th
Afr
ica
Un
ite
d
Stat
es
Technology
Advanced envelope – cold climate
Reduced cooling loads – hot climates
Heat pumps
Solar thermal
More efficient use of biomass
Policy
Building codes with supporting infrastructure
Appliance and equipment standard
Deep renovation of existing buildings
Zero-energy new buildings
© OECD/IEA 2014
Policies – Integrated Across Levels of Government
R&D, manufacturing standards, education, etc
Whole building performance metrics and certificates
Targets and goals for performance
Investment funds/incentives to avoid increased supply and electricity capacity
Building codes
Public purchasing programmes
Public housing/ government buildings
Building code enforcement
Voluntary “energy efficient” development and refurbishment zones
Revolving investment funds
Building codes
National/State Level Local/city level
© OECD/IEA 2014
Biggest Policy Impact for Cities
Public Sector Buildings
• Adopting deep energy renovation policies
• Constructing the most efficient buildings possible within constraints of life cycle cost
• Adopting energy efficient purchasing programs
Private Sector Buildings
• Enforce stringent building codes
• Encourage migration to smaller, energy efficient urban dwellings – consistent with macro city plans but hard to focus on just for building energy savings
• Provide extensive set of public case study data to allow for investment community to replicate
© OECD/IEA 2014
Buildings Model 31 Country/Regional Forecasts
Countries Brazil Germany Mexico
Canada Iceland Norway
Chile India Russia
China Israel South Africa
Denmark Italy Sweden
Finland Japan United Kingdom
France Korea United States
Regions ASEAN
Other Africa
Other developing Asia
Other Latin America
Other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia member non-member of the EU
Other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia member of the EU
Other OECD Asia Oceania
Other OECD Europe member of the EU
Other OECD Europe non-member of the EU
Middle East Will add Australia, Indonesia and New Zealand in 2015, possibly others.
© OECD/IEA 2014
Key Drivers – Floor Area and Households
We derive floor area forecasts to 2050 based on existing floor area data, GDP and population forecasts
We derive household occupancy forecasts to 2050 based on existing data, GDP and population forecasts – then the number of households are determined with population forecasts
Joint IEA/Tsinghua University work, new forecasts available soon and subject to peer review
© OECD/IEA 2014
Excel Based Model – Output to Supply Times Model
Residential Module
• Floor area and households (Driver)
• Space heating
• Water heating
• Lighting
• Cooking
• Space cooling
• Appliances Refrigerators & freezers
Washers & dryers
Televisions
Miscellaneous electricity
Services Module (commercial)
• Floor area (Driver)
• Space heating
• Water heating
• Lighting
• Space cooling
• Other
© OECD/IEA 2014
2014/2015 Model Update
Buildings model has macro global framework
Main focus of 2014/2015 is to build informal and formal partnerships to access/share data and improve modeling capability
May/June 2014 Outreach Webinar Series and Planned Workshop Nov 12th/13th - see http://www.iea.org/workshop/sustainable-buildings-workshop-.html
Attempt to improve refinement and impact assessment of major policy implementation – highly dependent upon data availability
© OECD/IEA 2014
Flexible Model Framework with Limited Resources
IEA ETP Buildings Model
City Integrated Heat and Building
Efficiency Model
Partners
Regional/ Country Detailed Building Simulation Partners
Urban Planning,
Heat Island Impact, and Population Migration
Partners
Industry and Supply Experts for Equipment and Materials, Cogeneration, Partners
Global Modeling
Expert Partners
© OECD/IEA 2014
Building Construction & End-Use Urban Building Impacts
Attribute Considerations and Implications Urban Impact Building Site
Orientation, Shape and Form
Major consideration to achieve very low energy/zero energy commercial and residential
buildings, easier in suburbs/rural.
Floor Area
Major impact on heating, cooling and lighting loads, usually much smaller floor area in urban
areas, could reduce GDP and jobs though.
Heating Loads
Largest end-use in buildings, much smaller in multi-family dwellings with less surface area and higher
internal loads. Lack of integration with district heating and building envelope efficiency.
Cooling Loads Globally small but growing, much higher in hotter
dense cities, less opportunity for natural measures.
Hot Water Loads Population, wealth, demographics, cultural impacts, and ground water temperatures.
Lighting Loads Usually linked to floor area and building shape and
form.
Appliances, Equipment and Plug
Loads.
Predominantly linked to wealth, behaviour, in emerging markets much greater in cities than rural.
© OECD/IEA 2014
ETP 2016 Urban Focus
Detailed scope dependent upon stakeholder/partner priorities
City experts collaborate on possible case studies related to advanced district heating integrated with efficient buildings
Existing urban/rural energy demand analysis is of high interest
Need to be realistic considering challenges, but global analysis is possible
© OECD/IEA 2014
District Heating and Efficient Buildings – Integrated Approach
Key drivers: urban density, heating degree days, and energy prices (today and future)
Business as usual
• District heating networks pursue future independent of plan for building renovation – business model based on sales of heat and heat density of old buildings
• Building renovation based on economics of current cost of district heating often with lower cost, high carbon producing fuels
© OECD/IEA 2014
District Heating and Efficient Buildings – Integrated Approach
Optimised Approach
• District heating plans future with renovation of most heat intensive buildings – business model based on comfort to expanded network to more customers providing less heat, at lower temperature, supplied by smaller, cleaner supply
• Building renovation based on economics of future higher cost cleaner district heating with sub-metering, individual controls, improved comfort, and healthier dwellings
© OECD/IEA 2014
Next Steps and Collaboration
Building experts attend Nov 12th/13th Workshop
Detailed simulation model results including cost/performance curves provided to feed global model
Collaborative studies would need to start very soon – especially on detailed urban heating studies (Interest from IEA DCH Implementing Agreement but resources are a challenge)
Secondee assignments to IEA possible option
© OECD/IEA 2014
International Energy Agency
9, rue de la Federation
757 Paris Cedex 15, France
P Marc LaFrance, CEM
Energy Analyst Buildings Sector, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology Directorate
marc.lafrance@iea.org, +33 (0)1 40 57 67 38
Contact Data
Buildings Workshop – www.iea.org/workshop/sustainable-buildings-workshop-.html