"Assessing Emerging Technology and Futures Capacity for Your Organization

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Transcript of "Assessing Emerging Technology and Futures Capacity for Your Organization

Assessing Emerging Technology and Assessing Emerging Technology and Futures Capacity for Your OrganizationFutures Capacity for Your Organization

Presented by: Bryan Alexander

1.Introductions2.Delphi method3.Environmental scanning4.Trend analysis5.Scenarios6.Implementation in your organization

Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop

1. Cold War: RAND and Shell2. Growth of

futures/futurology3. Business, government

Historical sketchHistorical sketch

• Assemble experts • Structured queries• Reiterated assessments

2. Delphi method

1. Introductions2. Delphi method3. Environmental scanning4. Trend analysis5. Scenarios6. Implementation in your organization

Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop Horizon ReportsHorizon Reports

Higher EducationHigher Education K-12 EducationK-12 Education

MuseumsMuseumsLibrariesLibraries

European Union (K-12) European Union (K-12) Latin America (Higher Ed)Latin America (Higher Ed)

Regional/Sector Technology Regional/Sector Technology OutlooksOutlooks

Australia / New Zealand / BrazilAustralia / New Zealand / BrazilIreland / UK / Norway / Singapore / AsiaIreland / UK / Norway / Singapore / Asia

China / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools China / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools Training / eLearning / STEM / Community Training / eLearning / STEM / Community

CollegesColleges

The NMC Horizon Project

55 Editions55 Editions75+ 75+

TranslationsTranslations14 Years of Global Research into Emerging 14 Years of Global Research into Emerging

Technology UptakeTechnology Uptake

HORIZON.WIKI.NMC.ORG

POLICYPOLICYLEADERSHIPLEADERSHIP

PRACTICEPRACTICE

LONG-TERM IMPACT> Advancing Cultures of Innovation> Rethinking How Institutions Work

[ KEY

TRE

NDS

]

MID-TERM IMPACT> Growing Focus On Measuring Learning> Increasing Use of Blended Learning Designs

SHORT-TERM IMPACT> Redesigning Learning Spaces

> Shift to Deeper Learning Approaches

[ SIG

NIFI

CANT

CHA

LLEN

GES

]SOLVABLE> Blending Formal + Informal Learning> Improving Digital Literacy

DIFFICULT> Competing Models of Education> Personalizing Learning

WICKED> Balancing Our Connected + Unconnected Lives> Keeping Education Relevant

[ DEV

ELOP

MEN

TS IN

TEC

H ]

NEAR-TERM: 1 YR OR LESS> Bring Your Own Device (BYOD)> Learning Analytics + Adaptive Learning

> Augmented + Virtual Reality> Makerspaces

MID-TERM: 2-3 YRS

FAR-TERM: 4-5 YRS> Affective Computing> Robotics

1. Which developments in technology are most likely to have the largest impact on

education over the next five years?

2. What are the most significant challenges facing education and technology?

3. Which significant trends will have the greatest influence on how education and

technology work in the near future?

Horizon prompts exercise

• Can you use Horizon and others?• Can you build your own?

On campus

• Present-oriented, seeking seeds of future

• Multiple, diverse sources• “So what?” Analysis

3. Environmental scanning

ACRL sample

http://tinyurl.com/ACRLscan

SocialTechnologicalEconomicalEducational Political

STEEP framework

• What are your sources?• How do you share what you discover?• How does reflection shape your planning?

Key questions to start on

1.Identify 2 stories from past 3 months2.1 personal, 1 professional3.Note source

EXERCISE

Once you have discerned possible future-suggestive stories, what do you do with them?

4. Trend analysis

•What do they signal about a possible future?

•What trends do they indicate?•How do they connect with your thinking?•How do they intersect?

4. Trend analysis

Back to environmental scan. Break out trends.

EXERCISE

5. Scenarios

https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamais_cascio/3991366442/

1.Narratives compel2.Creativity for everyone3.Role playing4.Can be very low cost

AdvantagesAdvantages

1.Time consuming2.Can be costly3.May seem too touchy-feely, too speculative

CostsCosts

1.Role playing2.Simpler: how does your life

change?3.Group or individual/small group

creation

How to use?How to use?

1.Peak Higher Education2.Health Care Nation3.Tutor me, Siri4.Renaissance

Sample scenariosSample scenarios

Academia experiences a serious correction

Peak higher educationPeak higher education

The bubble burstThe bubble burst

://research.studentclearinghouse.org/

Grad programs checkedGrad programs checked

•Demographic decline•Accelerated prices + sunk costs•Low public funding•Alternatives rising

Perfect stormPerfect storm

•Fewer, less crowded campuses•Very international student body•Low-cost programs ($10K BA)

How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?

•Increased remedial programs

•College generally seen as job training

How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?

More alternatives: Maker movement expands More DIY learning,

unschooling

How does this impact learning?How does this impact learning?

•Vocational tech classes are widespread in K-12

•Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths

•Colleges have always been transnational

Medical sector grows into leading US industry

45% of GDP

II: II: Health care nationHealth care nation

Aging population

A new economyA new economy

• Byzantine finances• Treatment improvements• Greater presence in society• Baumol’s disease

A new economyA new economy

• More programs, more people, more tech

• Increased feminization of student body

• Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals

How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?

• Some took premed-themed classes in high school

• Medical heroes loom as large as sports figures

• Many already familiar with eldercare practices

• Tutoring software

• Commodity and enterprise versions

III. Tutor me, SiriIII. Tutor me, Siri

• Continuous developments in AI, HCI, learning science

• Commercial, governmental, academic projects

• Open education to draw upon

How it happenedHow it happened

• Two Cultures implementation divide

• Boom in CS, robotics departments

• Scholarship battles

Higher education landscape

• Further adjunctification• F2f undergrad, grad

enrollments drop• Math Emporium model

Higher education landscape

• Expanded study halls in high school• Beloved tutors carried to college,

life• Value humans for eccentricity,

style

IV. RenaissanceIV. Renaissance

Gaming world

• Median age of gamers shoots past 30• Industry size comparable to music• Impacts on hardware, software,

interfaces, other industries• Large and growing diversity of platforms,

topics, genres, niches, players

Gaming as part of mainstream cultureGaming as part of mainstream culture

Games serious, public, and political

• Oiligarchy, Molle Industries• Jetset, Persuasive Games• The Great Shakeout, California• DimensionM, Tabula Digita

Classroom and courses Curriculum content Delivery mechanism Creating games

Peacemaker, Impact GamesRevolution (via Jason Mittell)

Classroom and courses Curriculum content Delivery mechanism Creating games

Peacemaker, Impact GamesRevolution (via Jason Mittell)

Game studies as academic fieldGame studies as academic field•Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)•Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage, 2008)•Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT, 2009)

Use games to impact society

•Changes in hardware, software•Part of undergraduate life•Learning content, both informal and formal

•Career paths

Some impacts on campusesSome impacts on campuses

• Accreditation: drives project-based, studio-style pedagogy

• Libraries: rare and/or smaller• Professional development: distance, DiY• Faculty multimedia production is the norm

• Both sides of the API

Higher education landscape:

•War on IP rages•Nostalgia waves for old media

•Competing storytelling schools

• Most students identified with one+ game characters in K-12

• Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors

• Most of their work and school is gamified

1.Peak Higher Education2.Health Care Nation3.Tutor me, Siri4.Renaissance

How does your life change?How does your life change?

1.Select one trend2.Build a world around it

A.Think STEEPB.Think campusesC.Imagine your students

EXERCISE 1EXERCISE 1

1.Pick the most unstable, hard to predict trend.2.Describe its polar extreme possibilities.3.Pick another trend.4.Do #2 on it.

EXERCISE EXERCISE

Each trend one axis

EXERCISE

What is your current futuring capacity?

•Individuals•Practices•Local resources

6. Back to campus

What are your external resources?•Collaborations•Online•Professional organizations

6. Back to campus

•Support futures-oriented people•Try out one of these methods•Hold planning/vision sessions•Share news, fiction

How to develop

•Ad hoc or formal group?•“ “ “ “ process?•Partner locally•“ externally

How to develop

1. Introductions2. Delphi method3. Environmental scanning4. Trend analysis5. Scenarios6. Implementation in your organization

Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop

http://bryanalexander.org

bryan.alexander@gmail.com

http://twitter.com/bryanalexanderhttp://twitter.com/bryanalexander