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APS 1015: Social Entrepreneurship
Class 3: Gap Analysis within Social Systems
Monday, September 23, 2013
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Instructors:Norm Tasevski (norm@socialentrepreneurship.ca)
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Agenda
• Review of Social Systems• Break• Gap Analysis within Social Systems• Next week
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© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
What is a System?
“A set of "Things” (people, organizations, objects…) that are
interconnected in such a way that they form their own pattern of behaviour over time”
Donella Meadows
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
System Behaviour
• A system creates/causes its own responses• Outside forces can influence system response,
but don’t cause the response• The same outside force that acts upon two
different systems can therefore elicit two different responses
• Example: the flu virus
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© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
System Components
1. Elements2. Interconnections3. Functions/Purpose
Example: Soccer (Football)
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Elements
Interconnections
Purpose
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
System Components
• Elements– Tangible (people, buildings)– Intangible (team pride, learned skills)
• Interconnections– Physical flows (e.g. objects moving)– Information flows (e.g. rules, instructions)
• Function/Purpose– Intended responses (e.g. goal to win a soccer match)– Unintended responses (e.g. violence after a soccer
match)
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Importance of Systems Change
• Systems are dynamic (not static) they naturally change
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Importance of Systems Change
• Systems, if left alone, can create adverse consequences
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The Cause of Change Is Volatility
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Voliatily is analogous to
VibrationStressors
FluctuationVariance
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
3 TYPES OF SYSTEMS
Fragile
Resilient
Anti-fragile
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Fragile Systems
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Exercise 1
• Volunteer?• Participation points!
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Fragile Systems =hurt by volatilityvalue efficiencyaggregate risktend to hide errors
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Resilient Systems
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Resilient Systems
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Resilient Systems =can bounce back from shocks/volatilityredundant by design (ex. Email)
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Antifragile Systems
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Antifragile Systems
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Antifragile Systems
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Antifragile Systems =gain from volatilitysmall errors lead to learningdecentralize risk
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
How to Spot Opportunities
1. Pretend you’re sent here from the future2. Get specific! Real life isn’t general3. Think about problems you have4. Contrarian, and right
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Opportunity Indicators
1. High margins2. Stagnation – old, dinosaur industries3. Intermediaries 4. Rapid change in adjacent domains (tech,
economics, etc. )5. Tyrannical control6. Pent up unhappiness!7. What bugs you?8. Things everyone believes
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Your turn! 10 minutes
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Cause and Effect Chain - Example
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Poverty
ResultEffect
Hunger
Cause (Proximate)
Can’t grow enough food
Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Not enough water?
Not enough labour?
Over-used soil?
Don’t know how to
prevent it
Rains too hard
Changing rain
patterns?
No irrigation resources?
People sick?
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
The Vicious Circle
• A symptom (effect) of a social condition can also be a cause, which then serves to further deepen the social condition
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Vicious Circle - Example
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Poverty
ResultEffect
Hunger
Cause (Proximate)
Can’t grow enough food
Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Not enough water?
Not enough labour?
Over-used soil?
Don’t know how to
prevent it
Rains too hard
Changing rain
patterns?
No irrigation resources?
People sick?
Malnutrition
Poor Health
Hunger could therefore be both an effect and a
cause of poverty
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Vulnerability vs. Resiliency
• Vulnerability– The reduced ability for elements within a system to
withstand shocks to the system– Examples of shocks:
• A crop failure/drought• A health crisis/new illness
• Resiliency– The absence of vulnerability (i.e. the ability to absorb
shocks to a system)
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© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
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“Root Causes of Poverty” Workshop
Tabe Ere
Break
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Gap Analysis
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Current State & Future State
• Current State – The amount of “stock” between two elements in a
system– The stock is typically a measurable quantity– Examples:
• Amount of water behind a dam• Level of trust in government• Amount of money in a bank account
– The current state can have either in an ideal level, an over-abundance or a scarcity of stock
• Future State– The ideal level of stock between elements in a system
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© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Inflows and Outflows
• Inflows– An increase in stock
• Outflows– A decrease in stock
• Example: Soil erosion– Excess inflow of water;
insufficient/ineffective outflow of water
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Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Over-used soil?
Don’t know how to
prevent it
Rains too hard
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Correcting Loops
• The mechanisms for controlling the inflows and outflows within a social system to maintain an ideal state
• Correcting loops are not necessarily “visible” in a system– Example: how do we
maintain ideal state of trust in government?
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Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Over-used soil?
Don’t know how to
prevent it
Rains too hard
• What correcting loop can we form in the system shown above?
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Correcting Loops
• The mechanisms for controlling the inflows and outflows within a social system to maintain an ideal state
• Correcting loops are not necessarily “visible” in a system– Example: how do we
maintain ideal state of trust in government?
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Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Over-used soil?
Don’t know how to
prevent it
Rains too hard
• What correcting loop can we form in the system shown above?
• What is the ideal state?
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Parameters
• The considerations/factors that affect inflow and outflow
• Example: Erosion– Rainfall– Soil type– Landscape/topography– Vegetation type– Land management
• Can be unchangeable or changeable
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Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Over-used soil?
Don’t know how to
prevent it
Rains too hard
• What parameters can be changed? What can’t be changed?
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Parameters (Continued)
Parameters are one form of intervention (aka “Leverage Points”) to address gaps in a system
But…
…we will cover leverage points in class 4
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© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Changing Systems
Characteristics of adaptive systems:
• Complexity– The need to use multiple perspectives or layers to
understand
• Intractability– The inability to exactly predict or control the change
taking place
• Stability and Change– Understanding that trying to manage a single variable
may cause (multiple) other variables in the system to also change.
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© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Understanding Changing Systems
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1. Potential (i.e. the limit to what is possible)
2. Connectedness ( i.e. the degree to which a system is able to control what happens to it through internal controls/feedback mechanisms/design/infrastructure)
3. Resilience – the ability to tolerate disturbances before something changes (good or bad).
What influences change:
Each of these factors apply to the system as a whole, as well as ANY VARIABLE WITHIN THE SYSTEM.
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Adaptability & Evolution of Systems
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1. Exploitation - a stage of rapid expansion. For example: a fertile niche.
2. Conservation – a stage where slow accumulation and storage of energy and material is emphasized. For example: stabilization.
3. Release – a stage that occurs rapidly, as when a population declines due to a competitor, or changed conditions
4. Reorganization – a stage that can also occur rapidly, as when certain members of the population are selected for their ability to survive despite the competitor or changed conditions that triggered the release.
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Analysis of Systems
• Goal:– Identify the imbalances in the current state and begin to
understand how to design an intervention to address the imbalance so the system can adapt towards the future state.
• Steps:– Describe the current state (inflows, outflows, changeable
+ non-changeable parameters, stock imbalances)– Describe the ideal future state (ideal inflow/outflow
levels and ideal parameters)
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© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Exercise
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Describe the current state in one area of this system
Poverty
ResultEffect
Hunger
Cause (Proximate)
Can’t grow enough food
Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Not enough water?
Not enough labour?
Over-used soil?
Don’t know how to
prevent it
Rains too hard
Changing rain
patterns?
No irrigation resources?
People sick?
Malnutrition
Poor Health
© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Another Analysis Technique
• PESTEL Analysis– Political: The degree to which government intervenes in
a system• E.g.: political stability, tax/education/health policies
– Economic: The degree to which economic factors affect a system• E.g.: economic growth, interest rates, inflation
– Social: Cultural factors that affect a system• E.g. attitudes toward health, career, the elderly
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© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
PESTEL (Continued)
• PESTEL Analysis (Continued)– Technological: Technological factors found in a system
• E.g.: level of R&D, level of automation– Environmental: Ecological and environmental factors in a
system• E.g.: weather, climate, land use/degradation
– Legal: The man-made laws governing a system• E.g. tax/employment/health laws, type of legal
system (e.g. civil, common, religious)
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© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
What did we learn?
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