APS1015 Class 3 - Systems Analysis

APS 1015: Social Entrepreneurship

Class 3: Gap Analysis within Social Systems

Monday, September 23, 2013

1

Instructors:Norm Tasevski ([email protected])

© Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji

Agenda

• Review of Social Systems• Break• Gap Analysis within Social Systems• Next week

2


What is a System?

“A set of "Things” (people, organizations, objects…) that are

interconnected in such a way that they form their own pattern of behaviour over time”

Donella Meadows


System Behaviour

• A system creates/causes its own responses• Outside forces can influence system response,

but don’t cause the response• The same outside force that acts upon two

different systems can therefore elicit two different responses

• Example: the flu virus

4


System Components

1. Elements2. Interconnections3. Functions/Purpose

Example: Soccer (Football)

5

Elements

Interconnections

Purpose


System Components

• Elements– Tangible (people, buildings)– Intangible (team pride, learned skills)

• Interconnections– Physical flows (e.g. objects moving)– Information flows (e.g. rules, instructions)

• Function/Purpose– Intended responses (e.g. goal to win a soccer match)– Unintended responses (e.g. violence after a soccer

match)

6


Importance of Systems Change

• Systems are dynamic (not static) they naturally change

7


Importance of Systems Change

• Systems, if left alone, can create adverse consequences

8


The Cause of Change Is Volatility


Voliatily is analogous to

VibrationStressors

FluctuationVariance


3 TYPES OF SYSTEMS

Fragile

Resilient

Anti-fragile


Fragile Systems


Exercise 1

• Volunteer?• Participation points!


Fragile Systems =hurt by volatilityvalue efficiencyaggregate risktend to hide errors


Resilient Systems


Resilient Systems =can bounce back from shocks/volatilityredundant by design (ex. Email)


Antifragile Systems


Antifragile Systems =gain from volatilitysmall errors lead to learningdecentralize risk


How to Spot Opportunities

1. Pretend you’re sent here from the future2. Get specific! Real life isn’t general3. Think about problems you have4. Contrarian, and right


Opportunity Indicators

1. High margins2. Stagnation – old, dinosaur industries3. Intermediaries 4. Rapid change in adjacent domains (tech,

economics, etc. )5. Tyrannical control6. Pent up unhappiness!7. What bugs you?8. Things everyone believes


Your turn! 10 minutes


Cause and Effect Chain - Example

26

Poverty

ResultEffect

Hunger

Cause (Proximate)

Can’t grow enough food

Cause (Ultimate)

Bad soil?

Soil erosion?

Not enough water?

Not enough labour?

Over-used soil?

Don’t know how to

prevent it

Rains too hard

Changing rain

patterns?

No irrigation resources?

People sick?


The Vicious Circle

• A symptom (effect) of a social condition can also be a cause, which then serves to further deepen the social condition

27


Vicious Circle - Example

28

Poverty

ResultEffect

Hunger

Cause (Proximate)


Cause (Ultimate)

Bad soil?

Soil erosion?

Not enough water?

Not enough labour?

Over-used soil?

Don’t know how to

prevent it

Rains too hard

Changing rain

patterns?


People sick?

Malnutrition

Poor Health

Hunger could therefore be both an effect and a

cause of poverty


Vulnerability vs. Resiliency

• Vulnerability– The reduced ability for elements within a system to

withstand shocks to the system– Examples of shocks:

• A crop failure/drought• A health crisis/new illness

• Resiliency– The absence of vulnerability (i.e. the ability to absorb

shocks to a system)

29


30

“Root Causes of Poverty” Workshop

Tabe Ere

Break

31

Gap Analysis

32


Current State & Future State

• Current State – The amount of “stock” between two elements in a

system– The stock is typically a measurable quantity– Examples:

• Amount of water behind a dam• Level of trust in government• Amount of money in a bank account

– The current state can have either in an ideal level, an over-abundance or a scarcity of stock

• Future State– The ideal level of stock between elements in a system

33


Inflows and Outflows

• Inflows– An increase in stock

• Outflows– A decrease in stock

• Example: Soil erosion– Excess inflow of water;

insufficient/ineffective outflow of water

34

Cause (Ultimate)

Bad soil?

Soil erosion?

Over-used soil?

Don’t know how to

prevent it

Rains too hard


Correcting Loops

• The mechanisms for controlling the inflows and outflows within a social system to maintain an ideal state

• Correcting loops are not necessarily “visible” in a system– Example: how do we

maintain ideal state of trust in government?

35

Cause (Ultimate)

Bad soil?

Soil erosion?

Over-used soil?

Don’t know how to

prevent it

Rains too hard

• What correcting loop can we form in the system shown above?


Correcting Loops

• The mechanisms for controlling the inflows and outflows within a social system to maintain an ideal state

• Correcting loops are not necessarily “visible” in a system– Example: how do we

maintain ideal state of trust in government?

36

Cause (Ultimate)

Bad soil?

Soil erosion?

Over-used soil?

Don’t know how to

prevent it

Rains too hard

• What correcting loop can we form in the system shown above?

• What is the ideal state?


Parameters

• The considerations/factors that affect inflow and outflow

• Example: Erosion– Rainfall– Soil type– Landscape/topography– Vegetation type– Land management

• Can be unchangeable or changeable

37

Cause (Ultimate)

Bad soil?

Soil erosion?

Over-used soil?

Don’t know how to

prevent it

Rains too hard

• What parameters can be changed? What can’t be changed?


Parameters (Continued)

Parameters are one form of intervention (aka “Leverage Points”) to address gaps in a system

But…

…we will cover leverage points in class 4

38


Changing Systems

Characteristics of adaptive systems:

• Complexity– The need to use multiple perspectives or layers to

understand

• Intractability– The inability to exactly predict or control the change

taking place

• Stability and Change– Understanding that trying to manage a single variable

may cause (multiple) other variables in the system to also change.

39


Understanding Changing Systems

40

1. Potential (i.e. the limit to what is possible)

2. Connectedness ( i.e. the degree to which a system is able to control what happens to it through internal controls/feedback mechanisms/design/infrastructure)

3. Resilience – the ability to tolerate disturbances before something changes (good or bad).

What influences change:

Each of these factors apply to the system as a whole, as well as ANY VARIABLE WITHIN THE SYSTEM.


Adaptability & Evolution of Systems

41

1. Exploitation - a stage of rapid expansion. For example: a fertile niche.

2. Conservation – a stage where slow accumulation and storage of energy and material is emphasized. For example: stabilization.

3. Release – a stage that occurs rapidly, as when a population declines due to a competitor, or changed conditions

4. Reorganization – a stage that can also occur rapidly, as when certain members of the population are selected for their ability to survive despite the competitor or changed conditions that triggered the release.


Analysis of Systems

• Goal:– Identify the imbalances in the current state and begin to

understand how to design an intervention to address the imbalance so the system can adapt towards the future state.

• Steps:– Describe the current state (inflows, outflows, changeable

+ non-changeable parameters, stock imbalances)– Describe the ideal future state (ideal inflow/outflow

levels and ideal parameters)

42


Exercise

43

Describe the current state in one area of this system

Poverty

ResultEffect

Hunger

Cause (Proximate)


Cause (Ultimate)

Bad soil?

Soil erosion?

Not enough water?

Not enough labour?

Over-used soil?

Don’t know how to

prevent it

Rains too hard

Changing rain

patterns?


People sick?

Malnutrition

Poor Health


Another Analysis Technique

• PESTEL Analysis– Political: The degree to which government intervenes in

a system• E.g.: political stability, tax/education/health policies

– Economic: The degree to which economic factors affect a system• E.g.: economic growth, interest rates, inflation

– Social: Cultural factors that affect a system• E.g. attitudes toward health, career, the elderly

44


PESTEL (Continued)

• PESTEL Analysis (Continued)– Technological: Technological factors found in a system

• E.g.: level of R&D, level of automation– Environmental: Ecological and environmental factors in a

system• E.g.: weather, climate, land use/degradation

– Legal: The man-made laws governing a system• E.g. tax/employment/health laws, type of legal

system (e.g. civil, common, religious)

45


What did we learn?

46

APS1015 Class 3 - Systems Analysis

Technology

Transcript of APS1015 Class 3 - Systems Analysis