“Is anyone listening out there?” · 2031 Lacs 2021 Lacs 2011 Lacs 2006 Lacs 2001 Lacs Area Sq...

19 Deember 2007 Workshop at TRIPP-IIT Delhi 1

“Transport, Health, Environment &

Equity in Indian cities”

Workshop Organized By

McGill University and TRIPP-IIT Delhi

On17 – 19 December 2007

“Is anyone listening out there?”By

Sudhir BadamiTransport & Urban Analyst and Activist

sudhirbadami@gmail.com

I would like to put before you the case of

Mumbai’s

1. 146.5 km of Mumbai Metro Master Plan - which is being considered as the solution for Mumbai's inadequate Public Transport capacity.

2. Scuttling of Sky Bus Technology

3. Low priority to BRTS in Mumbai

Greater Mumbai

Urban Agglomerate

Mumbai Metropolitan Region

MMR • Population 2001 Census

• Mira-Bhayandar 5 lac

• Bhiwandi-Nizampur 6 lac

� Thane 13 lac

� Kalyan-Dombivili 13 lac

� Ulhasnagar 5 lac

� Navi Mumbai 7 lac

� Greater Mumbai 119 lac

7 M’Corpns, 13 M’Councils and ~900

villages exist in the MMR

~1870 ~1900 1950 1957

Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai

Over the years

Western Suburbs

Eastern Suburbs

Island City24 Municipal

Wards of MCGM

408309234 (31%)205.51771273MMR Urban

426325248 (31%)218.5189 (28%)

4355MMR

230181143 (27%)131119 (20%)

468MCGM

775945 (25%)40.536 (22%)168Eastern Suburbs

1158664 (28%)5750 (28%)226Western Suburbs

383634(3%)33.533(3%)72Island City

Population Projections (10 Lacs = 1 Million)

3202431841611391273MMR Urban

98755750434355MMR

492387306280254468MCGM

458351268241214168Eastern Suburbs

509381283252221226Western Suburbs

52850047246545872Island City

Population Density Projections

18 %7.5 Lac42 LacChennai

20 %20 Lac98 LacDelhi

32 %15 Lac46 LacKolkatta

33 %4.2 Lac13 LacThane

36 %7.5 Lac21 LacNagpur

44 %4.7 Lac11 LacMeerat

46 %5 Lac11 LacFaridabad

50 %60 Lac119 LacGreater Mumbai

SlumPopulation

PopulationCity

Slum Population Figures

18 %6 Lac35 LacHyderabad

8 %3.5 Lac45 LacBangalore

33 %4.2 Lac13 LacThane

36 %7.5 Lac21 LacNagpur

44 %4.7 Lac11 LacMeerat

46 %5 Lac11 LacFaridabad

50 %60 Lac119 LacGreater Mumbai

SlumPopulation

PopulationCity

Slum Population Figures (Cont’d)

The Suburban Railway System

The B.E.S.T. Bus Transport

334 Routes

Fleet size 3404

Route No 521

Route No 93

10 %7 %Private Vehicle Users

5 %5 %Intermediate Public Transport (IPT)

85 %88 %Public Transport (PT) Users

20071994

Atkin’s Report

Commuter Proportions

Commuter journeys are made using Buses. 75% of these bus journeys are related to

suburban rail journeys45 lac

Commuters use Suburban Railway daily60 – 65 lac

What are the ground realities?

This is peak hour load of

3,50,000 pph

500 to 550 p/coach

(Design load is Only 200p/coach)

Peak hour crowd

waiting for the next

Peak hour crowd trying to board a crowded

train.

Mumbai Rail Commuters

Inadequate ladies

compartments add to their

Any room for the Senior Citizens, Pregnant

Women, Children and the Physically Challenged?

Peak hour traffic on

arterial roads do move, but congestion is

increasing rapidly

(Off Peak Hour Peddar Road)

Traffic congestion affects bus through put, compelling

many commuters to opt for personal vehicles.

(Peak Hour Peddar Road)

Between 1951 and 2004 there has been a

127 % increase in the length of city roads.

But population grew by 301 % over that

period while number of vehicles shot up by

3019 %, touching 20 million in 2007.

Whither Pedestrian?

Whither Pedestrian Safety?

Too Smooth ?

Too Narrow ?

Obstacles ?

Surely there are better footpaths to walk on in Mumbai

But are these where the crowds move?

Mantra to be followed:

Make Walking safe and comfortable.

Augment Public Transport Capacity significantly.

Quick Overview of Mumbai’s Proposed Transportation Projects

Current Proposals

• Mumbai Urban Transport Project (MUTP) • Expected Completion – 2007 (2009) Cost Rs 4600 Cr (WB Component ~ Rs 2600 Cr)

• Mumbai Urban Infrastructure Project (MUIP) • Expected Completion – 2007 (2009) Cost Rs 2600 Cr

• Bandra Worli Sea Link (BWSL)• Expected Completion – 2008 (2009) Cost 1300 Cr

• Western Freeway Sea Link (WFSL)• Expected Completion – 5 Years Cost 3000 Cr

Current Proposals (cont’d)

• Mumbai Trans Harbour Link (MTHL)• Expected Completion – 5 Years Cost 6500 Cr

• Mumbai Metro Master Plan (MMMP) • Expected Completion – 16 Years in phases Cost Realistic Rs 60,000 Cr plus for 146.5 km

• Water Transport Project (WTP)• Expected Completion – 3 Years Cost 600 Cr

• Exclusive Bus Lanes Project (XBLP) • Expected Completion – 2 Years Cost 80 Cr

• Monorail Projects• Expected Completion – 2 Years Cost 6000 Cr for 45 km

• Pedestrian Walkways

• At 21 locations at suburban railway stations

• Fleet Taxi Scheme• Meets the need of comfortable onward journeys for the affluent category

• Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS) • Pilot route under study

• Sky Bus Metro• Shelved ? Discarded ?

Mumbai Metro Master Plan (MMMP)

In Delhi

Current Proposals

(cont’d)

MMMPPhase I

1. Versova-Andheri-Ghatkopar 15 km

2. Colaba (Backbay)-Mahim-Charkop 36 km

3. Mahim-Mankhurd 12.8 km

Current Proposals

(cont’d)

MMMPPhase II

4. Charkop-Dahisar 7.5 km

5. Ghatkopar-Mulund 12.4 km

Current Proposals

(cont’d)

MMMPPhase III

6. BKC-Kanjur via Airport 19.5 km

7. Andheri (E) – Dahisar (E) 18 km

8. Hutatma Chowk-Ghatkopar 21.8 km

9. Sewri-Prabhadevi 3.5 km

Phase I 12.0 u/g 51.8 Elevated 2005-’11

Phase II 0 u/g 19.9 Elevated 2011-’16

Phase III 20.5 u/g 32.3 Elevated 2016-’21

--------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL 32.5 u/g 114 Elevated 2005-’21

--------------------------------------------------------

Overall MMMP Map

Overview of Mumbai’s

Proposed Transportation Projects

MMMP (Revised in May 2006)

Phase I 20.0 u/g 43.8 Elevated 2005-’11

Phase II 0 u/g 19.9 Elevated 2011-’16

Phase III 20.5 u/g 32.3 Elevated 2016-’21

--------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL 40.5 u/g 106 Elevated 2005-’21

--------------------------------------------------------

Monorail Projects

Proposed on

• Thane – Kalyan - Bhiwandi

• Lokhandwalla – Kanjur Marg

• Chembur - Mankhurd -Mahul

• Malabar Hill – Wadala - BKC

Monorail Projects

• Thane – Kalyan - Bhiwandi

• Lokhandwalla – Kanjur Marg

• Chembur - Mankhurd - Mahul

• Malabar Hill – Wadala - BKC

Pedestrian Walkways

Proposed at

• Twenty locations to facilitate easy dispersion of

suburban rail commuters.

Pedestrian Walkways

At about 20 Suburban Railway

Stations

Fleet Taxi Scheme

Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS)

Proposed a pilot route on

• Western Express Highway

Bus Rapid Transit System

(BRTS)

Western Express Highway

Sky Bus Metro

Currently not under consideration.

Hopefully its importance is realised before it is too

Mumbai Metropolitan Region Projects

Mumbai Metropolitan Region Rail Projects

~ Rs 80,000 Cr with

WTP & XBLPTotal

Rs 19,525 Cr

(Rs 60,000 Cr realistic)16 years ( 2024 ?)MMMP

Rs 6500 Cr5 yearsMTHL

Rs 3000 Cr5 years (after clearance)WFSL

Rs 1300 Cr2008 (2009)BWSL

Rs 2600 Cr2007 (2009)MUIP

Rs 4600 Cr2007 (2009)MUTP

Estimated CostExpected CompletionProject

Transportation Projects

Rs 5000 Cr5 years (after technology acceptance)

Sky Bus Metro (80 km)

Rs 2000 Cr2 years (after 1st Pilot in

operation)BRTS (200 km)

Operation commenced 2007

Fleet Taxi Scheme

2009Pedestrian Walkways

Rs 6000 Cr2010Monorail

Estimated CostExpected CompletionProject

Transportation Projects

Capacity Computations – MUTP/MUIP

25%(MUTP Phase I

Estimate)

Expected reduction in congestion in

coaches =

Say: 3,50,00075 x (4500 to 5000)

i.e. 3,37,500 to 3,75,000 pph

Current load (before full

implementation of MUTP) =

4500 to 5000Current load of

persons per 9 coach train =

75Numbar of train

services per hour =

Capacity Computation – MUTP/MUIP

200(220aspiration figure of Mckinsie

Report

110 seated and 90 standees

Design capacity of each coach

3894,667/12 = 389

Number of persons per coach after

increasing coaches to 12 per rake =

519 4,667 / 9 = 519 Number of persons

per coach in a 9 coach train =

4,6673,50,000 / 75 = 4,667

Number of persons per train =

69% of its capacity

(337-200) / 200 =With MUTP Phase II, each coach will be overloadedby

337(100-35) x 519 / 100 = 337

Number of persons per coach after 35% reduction in coach congestion (MUTP

Phase II) =

95% of its capacity

(389-200) / 200 = With only 12 Coach per train, coach will be overloadedby

69% Overloaded337MUTP Phase II Coach Loading

95% Overloaded389MUTP Phase I Coach Loading

150% to 175% Overloaded

500 to 550(Design Load 200)

Present Coach Loading

1,80,000 pph75 x 12 x 200 i.e.

1,80,000 pph

Design Capacity after full

implementation of MUTP Phase I) =

3,50,000 pphCurrent load (before full

implementation of MUTP) =

75Numbar of train

services per hour =

The magic figure to remember which will enable this to happen is:

3,50,000 – 1,80,000 =

1,70,000 pph

additional capacity of Public Transport

What Next ?

“Transport, Heath, Environment &

Equity in Indian cities”(5 min for this slide and then 15 min for Section 1)

Workshop Organized By

McGill University and TRIPP-IIT Delhi

On17 – 19 December 2007

XXXXXXXXXBy

Sudhir BadamiTransport & Urban Analyst ad Activist

sudhirbadami@gmail.com

On to Animations

What is Skybus?

Let us understand

Animation Clippings

Transmillenio, Bogota

The BRTS-Skybus Combine

Manual from here

Capacity Computations

BRTS-Skybus Combine

45,000 pph180 x 250 = 45,000 pph

Hourly capacity of single route

18060 x 60 / 20 = 180Hourly services

20 secs3 every minuteFrequency of

250BRTS Bus Capacity

Capacity Computations – BRTS

10,000 pphSurplus capacity

achieved by BRTS

1,70,000 pphRequired additional capacity

1,80,000 pph4 x 45,000 = 1,80,000 pph

Capacity of Four North South

Routes

Capacity Computations – BRTS

6060 / 1 = 60Hourly service at

operational headway

1 minOperational Headway

27 secs / 32 secsFor a pair / for 3 pairs of coaches

Design Headway

300Pair of coachesSkybus Coach

Capacity

Capacity Computations – Skybus

1,08,000 pph2 x 54,000Capacity of Two

North South Routes

54,000 pph900 x 60 = 54,000

6 Coach Capacity at hourly

operational service

9003 x 300 = 9006 Coach Capacity

Capacity Computations – Skybus

Total capacity of BRTS-Skybus

Combine

Capacity of four North South

Routes of BRTS

Capacity of Two North South

Routes of Skybus

1,18,000 pphSurplus achieved by BRTS-Skybus

Combine

1,70,000 pphRequired additional capacity

2,88,000 pph1,80,000 pph1,08,000 pph

Capacity Computations – BRTS-Skybus Combine

33.71 %Surplus as % of load

3,50,000 pphOverall load

1,18,000 pphSurplus achieved by BRTS-Skybus

Combine

Capacity Computations – BRTS-Skybus Combine

This would mean that whether it is Suburban Railways or BRTS or Skybus, the peak load will be about 34% less than the design capacity – a very comfortable state for commuters.

Cost Computations of BRTS-Skybus-

Combine

Rs 4,800 Cr@ Rs 60 Cr/km

80 km2 North-South

Routes of Skybus

Rs 2,000 Cr@ Rs10 Cr/km

200 km4 North-South and 3 East-West Routes

of BRTS

TOTAL COST ~ Rs 7,000 Cr

For a surplus capacity of 1,18,000 pph

Cost Computations of BRTS-Skybus Combine

The Metro Magic

Although Mumbai Metro Master Plan is an attempt to augment the capacity of Public Transport, it

1. Will take 16 to 20 years

2. Cost about TEN times of what the BRTS-Skybus will cost

3. Provide 28% less capacity than what is needed.

Cost Computations of MMMP

10,5742105,4844,480Cost

15520120400Rate

Rs Cr/km

68.410.545.712.2Length

TotalOn gradeElevatedUnderground

Table A - Delhi Metro Phase I

(at actual – alt I rates)

10,5752104,5705,795Cost

15520100475Rate

Rs Cr/km

68.410.545.712.2Length

Table B - Delhi Metro Phase I

(at actual – alt II rates)

19,525011,4008,125Cost

133.30100250Rate

Rs Cr/km

146.5011432.5Length

Table C - Mumbai Metro

(with rates placed at Public Consultation by MMRDA/DMRC in Feb 2004)

26,828011,40015,438Cost

18220100475Rate

Rs Cr/km

146.5011432.5Length

Table D - Mumbai Metro

(with same rates as for Delhi Metro – from Table B)

61,177021,73039,447Cost

417.520205974

extrapolatedRate

Rs Cr/km

146.5010640.5Length

Table E - Mumbai Metro

(with bid rates for Versova-Ghatkopar Stretch as accepted by MMRDA-Govt of Maharashtra in May 2006)

How Metro is projected as a “Save all” Project

A simple oft repeated statement that Metro has the capacity that other modes do not have seems to be the selling point.

Numbers tell us a different story.

Metro As a savior !

operationalheadway

3 minsOperational Headway

300Metro Coach

Capacity

Metro As a savior !

1,44,000 pph2 x 72,000Capacity of Two

North South Routes

72,000 pph3600 x 20 =

72,000

operational service

360012 x 300 = 360012 Coach Capacity

Metro As a savior !

1,70,000 pphThe magic figureRequired additional capacity

26,000 pph1,70,000 –1,44,000 = 26,000

The deficit comes to:

1,44,000 pph2 x 72,000

For 12 coach train

Routes

Capacity Computations – of Proposed Mumbai

operational

3 minsOperational Headway

300Metro Coach

Capacity

Capacity Computations – Mumbai Metro

72,000 pph2 x 36,000Capacity of Two

North South Routes

36,000 pph1800 x 20 = 36,000 pph

operational service

18006 x 300 = 18006 Coach Capacity

1,70,000 pphThe magic figureRequired additional capacity

98,000 pph1,70,000 – 72,000 = 98,000

The deficit comes to:

72,000 pph2 x 36,000

For 6 coach train

Routes

Other projects mentioned have little impact on transportation scenario with Mumbai. However, the MTHL, will throw the Mumbai Metropolitan Region open for rapid development.

At Rs 60 Cr/km, Sky Bus may become unviable to most cities in India, but may not be so for the metro cities.

As usual, Metro Rail is being touted as “the” solution to Urban Transport and we know the reality.

BRTS is being considered only to get funding from JNNURM, but I see hope with some seriousness being shown lately by Government.

“Material being shown here are from sources listed below.

Sincere thanks to them for making them available for these

presentations:

• Mumbai Metropolitan Development Authority• Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai• Census• Western and Central Railways• B.E.S.T.• Konkan Railway• Rishi Aggarwal• Delhi Metro Rail Corporation• News papers: Indian Express, Times of India, Hindustan Times, DNA• Mumbai Traffic Police• Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation• Economic & Political Weekly

Thank You

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