Sociology 364/L & 497/L Statistical Methods and Social Research

An Introduction and overview

Professor Jerald Schutte

Session I – Logistics - 12:15-1:30 pm

1. Class Format and FAQs2. General and Specific SLOs

Session II – Support - 1:45–3:00 pm

3. Technology Support4. Social/Interpersonal Support

Session III – Information – 3:45–5:00 pm

5. Fact Finding6. Critical Thinking

Topics for the Day

1. Enrollment

2. Class History

3. Meeting times

4. Books & References

5. Tests & Grading

6. Communication

7. Office Hours

8. Expectations

Session I – Course Logistics

1. Basic Conceptual Thinking: To Read efficiently,

Write coherently and do simple Arithmetic correctly.

2. Intermediate Conceptual Thinking: To Organize Information Effectively, Study Material Effortlessly, and Develop Long Term Memory Easily.

3. Advanced Conceptual Thinking: To Identify, Define, Evaluate, Analyze and Summarize Information from the World Around You. In short, to exercise Critical Thinking.

General Learning Outcomes

9 4 7 6 3 8 5

An Experiment in Organizing

9 4 7 - 6 3 8 5

Now Let’s Try Again, but this time……

1. Conceptualize: Identify, create and measure social concepts and generate hypotheses to test the resulting variables.

2. Control: Recognize and learn how to perform experimental and non-experimental procedures in conducting social research.

3. Collect: Identify where and how to collect data, write and conduct surveys, structure observational research, execute simulations and perform secondary analyses.

4. Calculate: Learn to summarize, analyze, reason and publish from descriptive and inferential statistical procedures via SPSS.

5. Communicate: Take command of reading and writing articles

in research format.

Specific Learning Outcomes (5 C’s)

Course Outline

First Break Now

1. Web-Based Repositories a. HTML Website / Moodle LMS

b. Virtual Computer Lab (SPSS)

c. Electronic databases (Jstor, etc)

d. Lecture Podcasts (mp3)

2. Web-Based Communication a. Virtual Private Network

b. Twitter and Group Email

c. Elluminate Virtual Class

d. Forums / Chats / Polling

Session II – Technology Support

The Website Announcements Weekly Lectures Lab Assignments Reading Guide Sample Quizzes Discussions Resources

Moodle LMS Profiles Discussion Groups Podcasts

The Website and LMS

1. Virtual Private Network:

software allowing student to connect to CSUN from off campus such that the server thinks you on the

campus network.

2. Virtual Computer Lab: Cloud Server allowing access

to SPSS from off campus.

VPN and VCL

1. Study Partners

2. Group Office Hours

3. Interpersonal Information

4. Moodle Profile References

5. Email, Web and Forums Posts

6. Virtual Polling / Examinations

Social/Interpersonal Support

Second Break Now

1. The Punch Card

2. Grades and Expectations

3. Your FATE

4. Factual Revelations

5. Our First Questionnaire

Session III – Fact Finding

The Four Elements of Critical Thinking

1. Think outside the box

2. Pay attention to the Smallest Detail

3. Consider all variables in forming conclusions

4. Take prior information into account.

Critical Thinking Exercises

#1 - Think outside the BoxExample - cover all nine circles with four straight lines without lifting your pencil!

#2 - Attend to the Smallest Elements Example: The Bridge Crossing Problem

A = 1 Minute

B = 2 Minute

C = 5 Minute

D =10 Minute

Problem: Cross the bridge two at time with one always coming back until all are across. How do they all cross in 17 minutes

Answer:

A crosses with B = 2 minutes

B comes back = 2 minutes

C crosses with D = 10 minutesA comes back = 1 minuteA crosses with B = 2 minutes

Total crossing time = 17 minutes

Conclusion: The more complex the problem, the greater the role of the smallest elements

Income by Education

1

2

3

4

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

1 2 3 4

Highest Degree Earned

Lif

etim

e S

alar

y

Education Yearly Earnings Life Earnings Difference

1 High School Dropout $19000 $1200000

2 College Grad $50000 $2400000 $1200000

3 Doctorate $75000 $3600000 $1200000

4 Professional Degree $100000 $4400000 $800000

#3 - Consider all Variables Example - Is College Worth The Money?

College Grad vs. HS Dropouts Lifetime Earnings$2,400,000 - 1,200,000= $1,200,000 Net Gain

PV Rate Nper FV (Loss)HS vs College GradDirect Costs 6 Years @ 8000 / Yr 48,000$ 5% 50 ($550,435)Opportunity Costs 6 Years @ 19000 / Yr 114,000$ 5% 50 ($1,307,284)Total Loss ($1,857,719)Total Gain $1,200,000Net Cost of a College Degree ($657,719)

College Grad vs PhDDirect Costs 6 years @ 10000 / Yr 60,000$ 5% 45 ($539,100)Opportunity Costs 6 years @ 50000 / Yr 300,000$ 5% 45 ($2,695,502)Total Loss ($3,234,603)Total Gain $1,200,000Net Cost of a Doctorate ($2,034,603)

College Grad vs. Doctorate Lifetime Earnings

$3,600,000 - 2,400,000= $1,200,000 Net Gain

College Grad vs. Professional Degree Lifetime Earnings$4,400,000 – 2,400,000= $2,000,000 Net Gain

Conclusion

Never take at face value what you read or hear, no matter how “right” it sounds. The degree of “rightness” is simply a measure of how closely it corresponds to our values. Critical thinkers step back from their own values to assess the validity of assertions by examining all of possible variables’ effects.

Direct Costs 5 years @ 12000 / Yr 60,000$ 5% 46 ($566,055)Opportunity Costs 5 years @ 50000 / Yr 250,000$ 5% 46 ($2,358,565)Total Loss ($2,924,620)Total Gain $2,000,000Net Cost of a Professional Degree ($924,620)

#4 - Use Prior Information to Make New Decisions Example: choose the card with the circle

What is the probability of choosing the circle?

Of course, it is 1/3 or .33 (i.e. one of three objects)

Use Prior Information to Make New Decisions

But suppose you found out that the middle card was the Triangle and, therefore, eliminated it. Now what is the probability of choosing the Circle?You would be tempted to say ½ or .5 since there are two cards left and one is the circle. But the correct answer is 2/3 or .66. Understanding why this is true is the key to recognizing the role of prior knowledge in decision making.

Use Prior Information to Make New DecisionsThink of the decision as having two trials. The probably of getting it wrong on the first trial is 2/3 or .66 (i.e. 1 - the probability of getting it right). The probability of getting it wrong on the second trial is ½ or .5 (again 1 – the probability of getting it right). Therefore, the probability of getting it right by the second trial is 1 – the probability of getting it wrong on both trials. Getting it wrong on the first trial is 2/3. Getting it wrong on the second trial is 1/2. Their product is the probability of getting it wrong on both trials (i.e. 2/3 x ½ = 1/3). Therefore the probability of getting in right by the second trial is 1 – 1/3, which is 2/3, not ½. Think about it.

Moral to the story: Success is greater if you continue your efforts, taking into account your failure, than disregarding your failures and trying anew.

Go to Quiz

Taking Stock of the DayA Short Quiz

Polling Website

Not Connected

Please go to rwpoll.com and type in the number given to you in the box below.

This course is going to be Easy?

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1. Strongly Agree2. Agree3. Disagree4. Strongly Disagree

I am going to get an A in this class

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1. Agree2. Neutral3. Disagree

How many sessions did we have today?

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1. Only one2. Two3. Three4. Four5. Five

How many sessions will we have each Sunday?

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1. Just one2. Two3. Three4. Four5. Five

Is the Final Cumulative?

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1. Yes2. No3. Don’t Know

How many hours / week are you expected to study for this class?

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1. 1-5 2. 5-103. 10-154. 15-20

What is your year in school?

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1. Junior2. Senior3. Grad Student

What is your sex?

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1. Female2. Male

Session I – Logistics - 12:15-1:30 pm

1. Class Format and FAQs2. General and Specific SLOs

Session II – Support - 1:45–3:00 pm

3. Technology Support4. Social/Interpersonal Support

Session III – Information – 3:45–5:00 pm

5. Fact Finding6. Critical Thinking

Topics for the Day