Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

AN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE AN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF SÃO PAULOMETROPOLITAN AREA OF SÃO PAULO

Augusto José Pereira FilhoOswaldo Massambani

Ricardo HallakHugo Karam

Reinaldo Haas

Departamento de Ciências AtmosféricasInstituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências

AtmosféricasUniversidade de São Paulo

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

MotivationACQUA 20/06/ 2003 City light NASA

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

(mm h-1)

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

(mm)

Fonte: OESPFonte: OESP

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

01/02 02/02 04/02

29/01 30/01 31/01

(mm)

DAILY RAINFALL ACCUMUATION 2004

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

SEA BREEZE FLOOD EVENTS 2002 - 2004

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Heat Island in the MASP

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

FLOOD CHARACTERISTICSFLOOD CHARACTERISTICS

•75% FLASH FLOODS Td > 20 oC

•60% SEA BREEZE + T> 30 oC •13 FLOODS A YEAR ( 2000 - 2004)

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

NCEP

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

NEW TOOLS to reduce flood impacts:NEW TOOLS to reduce flood impacts:

• MESONET;

• MICRONET;

• DOW X-POL DUAL;

• ARPS/T-TEB SYSTEM.

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

FAPESP/GESP

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

VH

Junta rotativaelevação

Antena

Controle da Antena / Monitoração

MotorElevação

Redutor Mecânicoelevação

Encoder Elevação

Motor Azimute

Redutor Mecânico azimute

encoder Azimute

Slip Ring

RCP8

Servo Driver Azimute

Cont AZ

Cont EL

Ang EL

Ang AZ

Servo Driver Elevação

Processador Sinais

RX Digital

RVP8

ACOPACOP

Pedestal

ACPTR

ACPTR

STALO

Digitalizador

DAFC

TX

Controle da chave

Produtos

Link de dados Celular

Trigger

Cont Chave

Compressor

Nivelamento Eletrônico

Receptor GPS

Interface elétrica Interface elétrica

Container Climatizado c/ equipamentos

Sistema de nivelamento

Link de dados

Conjunto Antena pedestal do radar

Grupo gerador

DOW X-POL DUAL

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Rainfall Analysis

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

+

RADAR SATELLITE

ANALYZED

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Rainfall Forecasting - ARPS

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

12-km

2-km

ARPS Domain

(123x123x35) 24 hr ~ 30 min.

(147x123x35) 24 hr ~3 hr

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

4800

Init

4800

Init

00 48

Init

Init

00 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48

Operational Routine

(hour)

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

CLUSTER Server (Dual Xeon ) 3.4 Ghz, 01

GB DDR ECC;

16 Nodes P4 3.6 GHz, 512MB DDR

400MHz ECC, 512K cache;

Clic Mandrake 10.1 with kernel

2.6.12;

Libraries MPICH, PVM ATLAS,

LAPACK, ScaLAPACK;

105 Gflops with Linpack;

38 Gflops with ARPS (estimated)

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Example

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Wind and Rainfall Fields (2-km grid)(123 x 123 x 57)

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Urban Boundary Layer Modeling of the Metropolitan Area of São

Paulo (MASP)

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Totally urbanized in the MASP

CBERS-2 image (resolution = 20 m )

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Thermodynamics variables

• Calibration of the Urban Surface Model.

• Improve the Numerical Forecast.

• Model and Dataset Interface Set up.

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

e (K)

IAG-USP

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Goal of Tropical TEB (T-TEB)

• To develop a Tropical Urban Surface Model calibrated for the MASP, based on Masson (2000);

• Improve the short-term forecast of rainfall.

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Short Wave Radiation Forcing

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Precipitation: 04-05 Feb 2004

IAG-USP

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Water accumulation at urban surfaces (simul.)

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Urban Surfaces Heat Fluxes

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Hydrological Modeling

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

ANN

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France

THE END