Post on 21-Jul-2015
R. Lilieholm, M. Johnson, S. Meyer, R. Boone, R. Reid, J. Worden, D. Nkedianye, M. Said,
S. Kifugo, D. Kaelo & J. Stabach
University of Nairobi, Kenya March 14, 2014
Spatially explicit models that depict future landscapes under various land use policies & “drivers of change” –
From this…
To this…
Anticipates future landscape conditions by modeling a wide range of alternative scenarios
• Socio-demographic • Economic • Biophysical
Baker et al. 2005
2014
Understanding how today’s
decisions affect tomorrow’s outcomes…
Basic & applied research on biophysical & socioeconomic
systems dynamics
Willamette River Basin (Baker et al. 2004)
How will future development & climate change affect the sustainability of pastoralists, wildlife & historic migration patterns?
How will future development & climate change affect the sustainability of pastoralists, wildlife & historic migration patterns?
Nairobi National Park
Masai Mara National Reserve
Amboseli National Park
Modeling wildebeest migration behavior using:
Hourly GPS tracking
Agent-based models
Modeling alternative future development scenarios using:
Remote sensing
Logistic regression
Bayesian Belief Networks
Modeling wildebeest migration behavior using:
Hourly GPS tracking
Agent-based models
Modeling alternative future development scenarios using:
Remote sensing
Logistic regression
Bayesian Belief Networks
By modeling how wildebeest migrate across the landscape, we can begin to understand how wildlife will react to changing human & natural
systems…
• Develop a range of alternative futures • Engage stakeholders in model exploration • Identify areas for critical needs
• Develop a range of alternative futures • Engage stakeholders in model exploration • Identify areas for critical needs • Anticipate future conflicts
Our research is supported by: NSF grant DEB-0919383
The Maine Sustainability Solutions Initiative (SSI) (NSF grant EPS-0904155 )
CSU NREL & CCC
International Livestock Research Research Institute (ILRI)
Kenya Wildlife Service
African Conservation Centre