Alternative futures for Kenya’s national parks and wildlife reserves
Transcript of Alternative futures for Kenya’s national parks and wildlife reserves
R. Lilieholm, M. Johnson, S. Meyer, R. Boone, R. Reid, J. Worden, D. Nkedianye, M. Said,
S. Kifugo, D. Kaelo & J. Stabach
University of Nairobi, Kenya March 14, 2014
Spatially explicit models that depict future landscapes under various land use policies & “drivers of change” –
From this…
To this…
Anticipates future landscape conditions by modeling a wide range of alternative scenarios
• Socio-demographic • Economic • Biophysical
Baker et al. 2005
2014
Understanding how today’s
decisions affect tomorrow’s outcomes…
Basic & applied research on biophysical & socioeconomic
systems dynamics
Willamette River Basin (Baker et al. 2004)
How will future development & climate change affect the sustainability of pastoralists, wildlife & historic migration patterns?
How will future development & climate change affect the sustainability of pastoralists, wildlife & historic migration patterns?
Nairobi National Park
Masai Mara National Reserve
Amboseli National Park
Modeling wildebeest migration behavior using:
Hourly GPS tracking
Agent-based models
Modeling alternative future development scenarios using:
Remote sensing
Logistic regression
Bayesian Belief Networks
Modeling wildebeest migration behavior using:
Hourly GPS tracking
Agent-based models
Modeling alternative future development scenarios using:
Remote sensing
Logistic regression
Bayesian Belief Networks
By modeling how wildebeest migrate across the landscape, we can begin to understand how wildlife will react to changing human & natural
systems…
• Develop a range of alternative futures • Engage stakeholders in model exploration • Identify areas for critical needs
• Develop a range of alternative futures • Engage stakeholders in model exploration • Identify areas for critical needs • Anticipate future conflicts
Our research is supported by: NSF grant DEB-0919383
The Maine Sustainability Solutions Initiative (SSI) (NSF grant EPS-0904155 )
CSU NREL & CCC
International Livestock Research Research Institute (ILRI)
Kenya Wildlife Service
African Conservation Centre