Almaden welcome 20160818 v2

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Jim Spohrer (IBM)San Jose, CA

Wednesday August 17, 2016http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/cognitive-startups-20160708-v6

Welcome to IBM Research – Almaden lab!

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30th Anniversary Celebration

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High School Senior: Anish Krishnan

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From App to Agent

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CognitiveBuild

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My Quest

• What is the best bot that anyone can easily install on their smartphone and laptop today?

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$5M Prize

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05/03/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?

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IBM Cloud Bluemix:Watson APIs are growing…

So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

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Societal Grand Challenges

Solving these would mean we are smarter, but would they mean we are wiser?

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IBM Research – AlmadenSan Jose, CA USA

IBM in Silicon Valley:From Punch Cards….

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Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children, among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special train that carried them across the continent to establish new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant Number 5 at 16th and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.

IBM in Silicon Valley:To Brain Chips….

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IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive

MachineLearning

NaturalLanguageProcessing

HighPerformanceComputing

KnowledgeRepresentationand Reasoning

QuestionAnswering

UnstructuredInformation

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Cognitive Build

I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?

Learning to program:My first program

Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945

Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972

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Fast Forward 2016:Consider this…

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Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016

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Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016

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IBM Image Tagging

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Courses• 2015

– “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”– 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject

• 2025– “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week

• 2035– “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day– Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves

• 2055– “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”– Most people have 100 digital workers.

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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

Can better service help us be wiser?

Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

What exists in 2016?

360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000

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Reality 2.0 Service Platform:polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2)

do not interrupt people (P1,P2)

Service Platform

100x 100x

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By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators

Empathy & Teamwork

sectorregion/culture

discipline Dept

Breadth

Liberal Arts

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What might Reality 2.0 look like?

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How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?

What might it look like?

Computing: Then, Now, Projected

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Wise Service System:All entities’ in networkuse cognitive mediatorsto enhance value co-creation interactions

Cognitive Mediators:Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert)as co-creators of win-win value

Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions

Cognitive Mediatorsfor all people in all roles

Occupations = Many Tasks

Watson Discovery Advisor

Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/

User Models

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government

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Two assertions

• Machines seem to be getting smarter fast.

– Agree/disagree?

• People do not seem to be getting wiser fast.

– Agree/disagree?

Homo Sapiens means Wise Man: True/False?

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What is Industry 4.0?

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History of the idea: Mirror Worlds

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Why is this relevant?

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I am still very skeptical… but tell me more….

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Managers: Courage Required….

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Talent required, but…

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Industry 4.0

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CyberPhysical Systems?

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Industry 4.0

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Yesterday: Servitization

• Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”

Tomorrow: Servitization• Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers• Make the product part of a smart/wise service system

– Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything– Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’ performance

across their life-cycles– Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product performance,

efficiency, maintenance, etc.– Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with

financing/Internet of Service– Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability– Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability

• Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for service innovation) for innovative university startups

Vision: MMaaRRSS

• Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System– “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for

customer Y.”– Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows – Minimize transport costs (for products and waste)

• The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)

In Summary

“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”

Cognitive SystemsEntities

Service SystemsEntities With

CognitiveMediators

Add Rights &Responsibilities

Explain external phenomena

Explain internal phenomena

Explainvalue co-creationphenomena

Physics Chemistry Biology

Neuroscience Psychology ArtificialIntelligence

Engineering Management PublicPolicy

Education Design Humanities

Natural Systems

Cognitive Systems

Service Systems

Sciences provide…• Frameworks for people to ask and answer

questions systematically• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”

Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -“To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the worldthat is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”

Proenneke:Alone in the Wilderness -To do a thorough testing, should each generationbe required to rapidly rebuildfrom scratch? A re-makers movement?

Some paths to becoming 64x smarter:Improving learning and performance

• 2x from Learning sciences (methods)– Better models of concepts – Better models of learners

• 2x from Learning technology (tools)– Guided learning paths– Elimination of “thrashing”

• 2x from Quantity effect (overlaps)– More you know, faster you go– Advanced organizers

• 2x from Lifelong learning (time)– Longer lives and longer careers– Keeps “learning-mode” activated

• 2x from Early learning (time)– Start earlier: Challenged-based approach– STEM-2D in K-12 (SSME+DAPP Design of Smart Service Systems)

• 2x from Cognitive systems (performance support)– Technology & Infrastructure Interactions– Organizations & Others Interactions

Next Generation:Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators

Many disciplinesMany sectors

Many regions/cultures(understanding & communications)

Deep in one sector

Deep in one region/culture

Deep in one discipline

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Future-Ready T-Shapes

Brief History of AI

• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak• 1990 – AI Winter• 1997 – Deep Blue• 1997 – 2011 Real-World• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &• True North Brain Chip• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”

on IBM Bluemix

Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to appear

The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology

Future of Skills

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T-Shaped “Future Ready” Talent

Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap

and co-create wiser service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens

with cognitive mediatorsin the collaborative service economy

Dedication: Doug EngelbartFather of the mouse and

augmentation theory

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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

Can better service help us be wiser?

Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

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But this stuff is still really hard…

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government

Almaden welcome 20160818 v2

Education

Transcript of Almaden welcome 20160818 v2

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