Post on 15-Apr-2017
Ruben G. Echeverría – International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Agriculture Research and Poverty Reduction: Pathways and Drivers
in Latin America
Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
Key messages
• Substantive progress on how to rethink the pathways of AR for rural prosperity in LA
• The rural economy is much more than agriculture and AR is key but one of many factors of agricultural development
• Understanding rural territorial development & the rural-urban interface are key to rethink AR pathways
• AR could contribute a lot to raise incomes of 4M of the total 15M small and medium size ‘farms’
Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
CGIAR needs strong partnerships for R4D pathways to reduce poverty
• The pathways for rural poverty reduction are too long…. And too wide…. So better expected results if there are other actors, but never alone!
• Going all the way in the pathway to reduce poverty means that the CG should partner with public, private and civil society organizations in the development field
Elements to identify AR pathways
• A global, generic, sustainable agricultureintensification strategy may not be the optionthat two thirds of LA family farms may chose
• Many LA family farms are looking to diversifyout of agriculture and invest their time in othersectors…
• With the exception of high value niche marketproducts …
Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
Agriculture: a key element of the rural economy
• Given the backward and forward linkages the sector represents at least 3 times more in the overall economy than usually accounted for…
• But, the rural economy is much more than agriculture …
• And, although agricultural research plays a key role in agricultural development, there are many other key elements out there…!
Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
A great return to rural issues in LAC!
• For almost 2 decades (80s and 90s) to talk about rural poverty in LAC was not a priority issue since markets, foreign investment and trickle down economics plus migration were going to solve this perennial issue…
• These arguments are now a thing of the past, there has been a strong comeback to territorial rural development, peace processes, land markets, infrastructure, extension and agricultural research focused in ‘family farming’
Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
Family farming has a huge potential
• Very limited rigorous impact evaluations, there is no much evidence that rural poverty decreased during the 80s & 90s despite solid economic growth in the region.
• Fatigue with social programs that expanded hand outs dramatically without major impact in rural areas. Mexico now invests 22B in rural development but less than 3% in rural poverty per se...
Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
A new rural research portfolio
• the key challenge is to better articulate social and productive policies under a territorial logic (social policy, production policy, infrastructure and basic services policies, etc.).
• In relative terms, too little investments in non-staples, policies and institutions. In Guatemala and Mexico 20% of new rural income is due to new crops and livestock (fruits and vegetables, coffee, cacao, ornamentals, poultry).
Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
Agricultural research challenge: Development at the rural-urban
interface
• 5.5B people live in the increasinglydiffuse and porous interface of ruraland urban societies
The developing world is urbanizing
30,0
20,0
10,0
0
40,0
50,0
100,0
90,0
80,0
70,0
60,0
Urb
aniz
atio
nra
te,
%
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia
Latin America and Caribbean
50% of the world’s urban populationlives in cities smaller than 500k
% urban population by LA city size
14,0
6,3
24,8
8,06,4
40,5
2015
10 million or more
5 to 10 million
1 to 5 million
500 000 to 1 million
300 000 to 500 000
Fewer than 300 000
17,2
4,2
27,4
7,46,9
37,0
2030
Rural population living away from a city of ≥50k
%World 2.6Developed countries 1.1Developing countries 2.8Far East and the Pacific 5.4Europe and Central Asia 3.8Sub-Saharan Africa 2.6Latin America and the Caribbean 1.4Middle East and North Africa 0.1South Asia 0.1
Source: Own estimates based on Barbier & Hochard, 2014
Over half of LAC’s total population livesin the rural-urban interface!
42%
37% 36%
18%
2%
60%56%
52%
47%
15%
10%
2%
0%
Urban > 500k Urban <500k Nearby Rural Distant Rural Rural-Urban
Note: Rough estimates, as it assumes that all proximate rural are near small and medium cities
20%
30%
40%
50%
Pro
po
rtio
no
fN
atin
oal
Pó
pu
lati
on
,%
2015
2030
Population:7% in green
43% in yellow & orange50% in red
IMI SP
And (very likely) a large majority of thepoor are in rural-urban territories
Distribution of the poor by size of municipality
Brazil
22%
52%
9%
17%25%
45%
10%
19%
Colombia
20%
56%
9%
15%
Mexico
<20k
20k-250k
250k-500k
>500k
AR pathways under a territorial rural development approach
• Sectorial policies not able to reduce poverty; territorial approach is the new paradigm. ‘Family agriculture’ isthe predominant form of ag in LA
• How can we articulate the territorial approach with thetraditional sectoral approach of agriculturaldevelopment?
• Great heterogeneity, from the very small minifundia in remote areas to agricultural entrepreneurs well linkedto clusters, contract agriculture and dynamic markets
Latin America
TypeFarms
(M)Area
(M HA)
C – very scarce assets+ less favorable environments
10 100
B – Intermediate 4 200
A – abundant assets + more favorable environments
1 100
Total 15 400
Potential elements to identify AR pathways
• Strengthen rural-urban linkages and inter-sectorallinkages (agriculture-industry-services)
• Strong income diversification in rural areas in LA
• There is an inceasing number of rural householdsthat depend much less on agricultural relatedincome (rural non-farm income continues to grow)
• Within those rural households where agricultureis a central source of income, specialization isbecoming more important than diversification!
Labor at the rural-urban interface
• Nonfarm employment accounts for a growing share of total jobs and of household income
• Nonfarm share of rural income
– 37% for Africa
– 51% for Asia
– 47% for Latin America
• Rural areas with weaker connections to urban locations of certain size, have lower participation in the nonfarm economy and the density and quality of those jobs are lower
The bottom line
• Significant progress made by several LA national research institutes, private companies and civil society organizations in the last two decades.
• For the CGIAR to continue to be relevant it is not just a matter on improving on the margins what has been done in the past 50 years….
• Need to rethink our strategic involvement in national sustainable food systems at the rural-urban interface
Food systems at the rural-urban interface
• Deep and rapid changes in all segments of food system
– Consumer
– Retail and intermediate segments
– Food production
• Interlinked drivers
– Urbanization
– Diet change
– Agrifood market system transformation
– Rural factor market transformation
– Intensification of farm technology and agricultural transformation
The rural-urban spaces in the transforming food systems
• The transformation of food systems
– Creates new opportunities for rural-urban spaces: new investments, new actors, new sources of employment and of local economic dynamism
– Not all rural-urban spaces are equally competitive in attracting these investments
– Not all changes are positive from the perspective of the poor, smallholders, consumer health, or the environment
– Exploiting these opportunities requires strategies, action plans, and public and private investments, some of them sectorial, others place-based
Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org
www.rimisp.org
Latin American Center for Rural Development
Julio Berdegué et al. World Development 2015